1,858 research outputs found
Climate change and weather extremes as risk multipliers: Tipping points, cascading events, and societal instability
Get PDFThe role of global warming as a risk multiplier is discussed in an integrative framework connecting climate and societal stability, acting through complex and destabilizing impact chains beyond thresholds. These include complex social interactions and self-enforcing collective dynamics such as breakdown of vulnerable infrastructures and networks; tradeoffs in the water-food-energy nexus; economic and financial crashes; social protest and turmoil; mass migration and violent conflict. Adressing the challenges through adaptive and anticipative governance can induce societal transformation processes to protect human security, develop social livelihood, strengthen societal resilience and solve problems along cooperative and sustainable pathways. In this context, key questions considered are conditions when climate stress exceeds the adaptive capacity of natural and social systems; tolerance ranges of stability and instability; impacts of climate stress on critical infrastructures and human-environment-interaction; thresholds of negative and positive tipping points triggering cascading events; and conditions for sustainability transition and societal transformation processes
Complex Crisis Landscapes and the Climate Risk Governance: Challenges for European Stability and Transformation
Get PDF"The author, a Professor at the University of Hamburg's Institute of Geography, explores the concepts related to the ""complexity turn"" in international relations which includes multi-level crises interrelated through global connectors such as financial markets, infrastructures and supply chains; media and social networks; communication and transportation systems; resource flows and climate change."Open Restriction set for Item 99777 on 2017-07-11T21:25:40Z with date null by [email protected] by Lynne Rudasill ([email protected]) on 2017-07-11T21:39:39Z
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Previous issue date: 2017Ope
The Anthropocene: an opportunity for transdisciplinary and inclusive science?
Get PDFThe informal understanding of the Anthropocene has sparked a significant worldwide debate across disciplines, including cultural studies, arts, literature, philosophy, law, sociology, political science, and international relations. Beyond its geological and chronological formalization, the Anthropocene is being discussed as a "new planetary real", a state shift in the Earth system, where humanity becomes aware of the role of collective human agency as the primary planet-transforming factor, with dramatic ecological, social, and economic implications. As such, the Anthropocene debate offers a unique opportunity to address limitations of established divides between academic communities and of their representativeness in issues involving science and society. Obvious imbalances in terms of disciplinary, ethnic, and gender inclusiveness emerge from the review of the composition of the Anthropocene Working Group, in spite of improvements over its predecessor, the Holocene Working Group. A strong polarization between the Earth and Natural Sciences on one side and the Humanities and Social Sciences on the other also emerges from the analysis of term co-occurrence in scientific publications mentioning the word "Anthropocene". Based on these findings, we draw some propositions for the development of a transdisciplinary and sustainable anthropocene science, embracing inclusiveness, openness, curiosity, and knowledge sharing
Cooperation and Co-Existence Between Farmers and Herders in the Midst of Violent Farmer-Herder Conflicts in Ghana
No full textDespite periodic violent conflict between farmers and Fulani herders in many parts of Ghana, cooperative relations between them remain strong. They are “cultural neighbors” who cooperate both in times of violent conflict and during periods of no conflict. Cooperation between them is expressed through everyday interactions, cattle entrustment, resource sharing, trade, friendship, intermarriages, visitations, exchanges, communal labor, and social solidarity. Borrowing from theorizations of cultural neighborhood and everyday peace, this paper uses specific case studies from Northern and Southern Ghana to illustrate the enactment of cooperation between herders and farmers in areas of violent farmer-herder conflict
Sustainable access to rural and urban land by integrating local perspectives: The potential of using Information and Communication Technologies
Get PDFWith fast growing human populations over the past decades, access to land has become an increasingly pressing issue. This is the case in urban as well as in rural spaces, and across both emergent and established economies. In this context, the management of land use and land ownerships, formal as well as informal, is of primary importance. Specifically, the balanced partition of land between public space (commonalities) and private property plays a key role in the achievement of sustainable land access policies. In this study, we explore the potential of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) to promote stakeholder participation and achieve sustainable access to land. Based on research in two case study areas, we show that transdisciplinary ICT-based tools can help us and the local stakeholders to identify specific needs, capabilities and potentials, to analyze emergent patterns and to support the development of place-specific sustainable development strategies
Handbook of bioenergy economics and policy
No full textxiv, 439 páginas : ilustraciones, tablas, gráficosParte 1. Introducción: 1. Bioenergy Economics and Policy: Introduction and Overview / Madhu Khanna, Jürgen Scheffran, David Zilberman -- 2. Are Biofuels the Best Use of Sunlight? / Gerald C. Nelson - 3. Perennial Grasses as Second-Generation Sustainable Feedstocks Without Conflict with Food Production / Frank G. Dohleman, Emily A. Heaton, Stephen P. Long - 4. Present and Future Possibilities for the Deconstruction and Utilization of Lignocellulosic Biomass / Hans P. Blaschek, Thaddeus Ezeji, Nathan D. Price - Parte 2. Interactions Between Biofuels, Agricultural Markets and Trade: 5. Price Transmission in the US Ethanol Market / Teresa Serra, David Zilberman, José M. Gil, Barry K. Goodwin - 6. Biofuels and Agricultural Growth: Challenges for Developing Agricultural Economies and Opportunities for Investment / Siwa Msangi, Mandy Ewing, and Mark Rosegrant - 7. Prospects for Ethanol and Biodiesel, 2008 to 2017 and Impacts on Agriculture and Food / John (Jake) Ferris, Satish Joshi - 8. The Global Bioenergy Expansion: How Large Are the Food-Fuel Trade-Offs? / Jacinto F. Fabiosa, John C. Beghin, Fengxia Dong, Amani Elobeid, Simla Tokgoz, Tun-Hsiang Yu - 9. Demand Behavior and Commodity Price Volatility Under Evolving Biofuel Markets and Policies / Seth Meyer and Wyatt Thompson - Parte 3. Designing the Infrastructure for Biofuels: 10. Optimizing the Biofuels Infrastructure: Transportation Networks and Biorefinery Locations in Illinois / Seungmo Kang, Hayri Önal, Yanfeng Ouyang, Jürgen Scheffran, Ü. Deniz Tursun - 11. The Capital Efficiency Challenge of Bioenergy Models: The Case of Flex Mills in Brazil / Peter Goldsmith, Renato Rasmussen, Guilherme Signorini, Joao Martines, and Carolina Guimaraes - Parte 4. Environmental Effects of Biofuels and Biofuel Policies: 12. Could Bioenergy Be Used to Harvest the Greenhouse: An Economic Investigation of Bioenergy and Climate Change? / Bruce A. McCarl, Thein Maung, Kenneth R. Szulczyk - 13. A Simple Framework for Regulation of Biofuels / Deepak Rajagopal, Gal Hochman, and David Zilberman - 14. Market and Social Welfare Effects of the Renewable Fuels Standard / Amy W. Ando, Madhu Khanna, and Farzad Taheripour - 15. US-Brazil Trade in Biofuels: Determinants, Constraints, and Implications for Trade Policy / Christine Lasco and Madhu Khanna - 16. Food and Biofuel in a Global Environment / Gal Hochman, Steven Sexton, and David Zilberman -- 17. Meeting Biofuels Targets: Implications for Land Use, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Nitrogen Use in Illinois / Madhu Khanna, Hayri Önal, Xiaoguang Chen, Haixiao Huang - 18. Corn Stover Harvesting: Potential Supply and Water Quality Implications / L.A. Kurkalova, S. Secchi, and P.W. Gassman - Parte 5. Economic Effects of Bioenergy Policies: 19. International Trade Patterns and Policy for Ethanol in the United States / Hyunok Lee and Daniel A. Sumner - 20. The Welfare Economics of Biofuel Tax Credits and Mandates / Harry de Gorter, David R. Just - 21. Biofuels, Policy Options, and Their Implications: Analyses Using Partial and General Equilibrium Approaches / Farzad Taheripour, Wallace E. Tyner -- Welfare and Equity Implications of Commercial Biofuel / Fredrich Kahrl and David Roland-Holst - 23. European Biofuel Policy: How Far Will Public Support Go? / Jean-Christophe Bureau, Hervé Guyomard, Florence Jacquet, David Tréguer - 24. Conclusion
Die Roadmap zur Sicherheit der Energie in Aegypten
No full textEnergy plays an important role in our life being one of the major vital needs of human beings and affecting all aspects of the development of our life. Until recently, electricity, the most widely used form of energy, represents an attractive field of research and development by many researchers in order to compromise between the efficiency and the economy of the electricity supply technologies. However, nowadays, the climate change phenomenon and its impacts broaden the vision towards these technologies by including other social and environmental aspects and the concept of sustainable development into their evaluation. In response to the increasing demand of electricity in Egypt, actors have to compare reasonably between all potential technologies and make decisions on the suitable energy-mix that could secure a sustainable future energy in Egypt.
By exploring the literature, previous studies are concerned with the sustainability assessment of the installed power plants projects regading the surrounding community in their case studies whereas some of these studies assess the technologies in a static evaluation and with an emphasis on renewable energy technologies. No attention has been given to the role of the interaction of the decisions by multiple actors in the planning process of future energy. Moreover, previous studies of electricity planning in Egypt are pursued by assessing the technical and economic aspects only with a little attention to the social and environmental aspects. This study introduces a new approach of spatial and temporal dynamic sustainability assessment of technologies for electricity planning and the analysis of the decision making process of multiple actors in the energy sector. I investigate scenarios and strategies for future planning of energy security in Egypt, with a focus on alternative energy pathways and a sustainable electricity supply mix as part of an energy roadmap till the year 2100. The selection process is based on the assessment of the technologies according to the preferences of actors in multi-criteria evaluation that represents relevant dimensions of sustainability.
In this assessment process I use a novel approach of integrating three methodologies: the multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), the spatial Geographic Information System (GIS) data analysis and the agent-based modelling (ABM). Furthermore, I investigate the emissions of Greenhouse Gases from the different energy-mix scenarios. The scope of the study includes 13 assessment indicators covering the four main dimensions of the sustainable development, 13 spatial factors representing the local surrounding conditions, 11 actor-based scenarios (4 actors from the energy sector in Egypt, 4 virtual actors where each represents one dimension of sustainability, a mixed sustainable scenario and 2 game scenarios that represent the interaction between the actors) and 7 electricity supply technologies (coal, natural gas, wind, concentrated solar power, photovoltaics, biomass and nuclear).
By comparing the results of the different scenarios, I found that the actors from the energy sector show comparable future energy-mix scenarios due to the close preferences of their assessment of the technologies. However, the four virtual actors with a preference to only one dimension of the sustainability generate a big difference in future energy-mix scenarios which proves a correlation between some technologies to certain sustainability dimensions. The game scenario explains the interaction between the decisions of different actors and how these interactions could change their behavior in the assessment of the technologies in order to increase their benefits. Generally, there is an energy landscape transition towards renewable technologies in order to meet the increasing demand in a secure and sustainable manner with the possibility of including coal and nuclear in a limited extent as a diversification tool of energy resources ensuring more security. The study clarifies the complexity of the decision making process in the planning of future energy supply which necessitates the involvement of a multi-dimensional dynamic assessment of energy systems and the involvement of the preferences of all stakeholders, who are affected by the decision process, in the evaluation of these systems from their perspectives. In this study a novel prototype model that has wide applications in different fields and with different case studies is designed. Finally, it is recommended to perform the analysis at a higher resolution and with more input data to increase the accuracy of the results. It is recommended also to include investigations about the interactions with actors from other sectors like water and food sectors and actors who are concerned with the climate change issue and to assess the cooperation-conflict responses and consequences of these kinds of interactions.Energie spielt eine wichtige Rolle in unserem Leben, weil sie sowohl ein lebensnotwendiges Bedürfnis der Menschen ist, als auch in alle Aspekte der Entwicklung unseres Lebens eingreift. Dabei stellt der elektrische Strom die am weitesten verbreitete Energieform dar und ist zugleich ein attraktives Gebiet von Forschung und Entwicklung, um zwischen der Effizienz und der Wirtschaftlichkeit der Stromerzeugungstechnologien einen Kompromiss zu finden. Heutzutage jedoch erweitert das Phänomen des Klimawandels mit seinen Auswirkungen den Blick auf diese Technologien. Dadurch werden weitere Sozial- und Umweltaspekte und besonders der Begriff der nachhaltigen Entwicklung in die Bewertung aufgenommen. Als Antwort auf den zunehmenden Strombedarf in Ägypten müssen die Akteure im Energiesektor zwischen allen potentiellen Technologien abwägen und Entscheidungen über eine passende Energiemischung treffen, die eine nachhaltige zukünftige Energieversorgung in Ägypten sichern kann.
Eine sorgfältige Literaturrecherche zeigt, dass bisherige Studien sich mit der nachhaltigkeitsorientierten Beurteilung der installierten Kraftwerk-Projekte hinsichtlich der anliegenden Gemeinden in ihren Fallstudien beschäftigen, wobei einige dieser Studien auf eine statische Untersuchung der Technologien und erneuerbaren Energietechnologien beschränkt sind. Keine Aufmerksamkeit ist jedoch der Rolle der Wechselwirkung der Entscheidungen von mehreren Akteuren im Planungsprozess der zukünftigen Energie gewidmet worden. Außerdem wurden bisherige Studien zur Stromversorgung Ägyptens vor allem mit Blick auf die technischen und ökonomischen Aspekte und mit geringer Berücksichtigung der sozialen und Umwelt-Aspekte durchgeführt. Diese Studie verfolgt einen neuen Ansatz der räumlich und zeitlich dynamischen nachhaltigen Beurteilung der Technologien für die Stromplanung und die Analyse des Entscheidungsprozesses von mehreren Akteuren im Energiesektor. Ich untersuche die Szenarien und die Strategien für die Zukunftsplanung der Energiesicherheit in Ägypten, mit Fokus auf alternative Energiewege und auf eine nachhaltige Mischung der Stromerzeugung als Teil eines Energie-Fahrplans bis zum Jahr 2100. Der Auswahlprozess beruht auf der Beurteilung der Technologien entsprechend der Präferenzen der Akteure in Multikriterien-Bewertungen, die relevante Dimensionen der Nachhaltigkeit berücksichtigen.
In diesem Beurteilungsprozess verwende ich einen neuen Ansatz, der drei Methoden integriert: die Multikriterien-Entscheidungsanalyse (MCDA), das räumliche Geographische Informationssystem (GIS) für die Datenanalyse und die Agentenbasierte Modellierung (ABM). Darüber hinaus untersuche ich den Ausstoß von Treibhausgasen in den verschiedenen Szenarien der Energiemischung. Die Studie umfasst 13 Bewertungs-Indikatoren, welche die vier Hauptdimensionen der nachhaltigen Entwicklung vertreten, 13 räumliche Faktoren, welche die lokalen Umgebungsbedingungen repräsentieren, 11 akteursbasierte Szenarien (4 Akteure des Energiesektors in Ägypten, 4 virtuelle Akteure, von denen jeder eine Dimension der Nachhaltigkeit vertritt, ein gemischtes Nachhaltigkeits-Szenario und 2 Spielszenarien, die die Wechselwirkung zwischen den Akteuren darstellen) und 7 Stromerzeugungstechnologien (Kohle, Erdgas, Wind, konzentrierte Sonnenkraft, Photovoltaik, Biomasse und Kernkraft).
Durch den Vergleich der Resultate der verschiedenen Szenarien komme ich zu dem Ergebnis, dass die Akteure des Energiesektors vergleichbare zukünftige Szenarien der Energiemischung aufgrund ähnlicher Präferenzen ihrer Beurteilung der Technologien zeigen. Das Spielszenario erklärt die Wechselwirkung zwischen den Entscheidungen von verschiedenen Akteuren, und wie diese Interaktionen ihr Verhalten bei der Beurteilung der Technologien ändern können, um ihre Vorteile zu vergrößern. Generell gibt es eine Wende in der Energie-Landschaft zu erneuerbaren Technologien, um die zunehmende Nachfrage in einer sicheren und nachhaltigen Weise bereitzustellen, mit der Möglichkeit Kohle und Kernkraft in beschränktem Maße als Mittel der Diversifizierung und Sicherung der Energieversorgung einzubeziehen. Die Studie verdeutlicht die Komplexität des Entscheidungsprozesses in der Planung der zukünftigen Energiebereitstellung, die eine multidimensionale dynamische Beurteilung von Energie-Systemen und die Berücksichtigung der Präferenzen aller vom Entscheidungsprozess betroffenen Stakeholder in der Auswertung dieser Systeme erforderlich macht. Schließlich wird empfohlen, die Analyse mit einer höheren Genauigkeit und mit mehr Eingangsdaten durchzuführen, um die Sicherheit der Resultate zu verbessern. Es wird auch empfohlen, Wechselwirkungen mit Akteuren aus anderen Sektoren wie Wasser- und Nahrungsmittelversorgung, mit Akteuren im Kontext des Klimawandels oder Reaktionen und Konsequenzen von Kooperation und Konflikten zu untersuchen
Challenges and opportunities for historical irrigated agricultural systems in Mediterranean regions: Technical, cultural, and environmental assets for sustainable rural development in Ricote (Murcia, Spain)
Get PDFHistorical irrigated agricultural systems in Mediterranean regions provide a long record of sustainability and adaptation to changing climatic, environmental, and social conditions. These agricultural systems are currently confronted with challenges that may threaten their persistence over the next decades. Here, we propose a first assessment of strategies and opportunities that may contribute to the continued sustainable development of historical irrigated agricultural systems. Our assessment is based on experience gained within the agricultural community of Ricote (Murcia, Southeast Spain), in consultation with local stakeholders and external expert
Tipping cascades between conflict and cooperation in climate change
Get PDFNo new data are used in this paper. Data for Fig. 5b are based on the GUARD project and are openly available via the data statement in Aquino et al. (2019). Code for the GUARD project is not accessible publicly as it was a government project and is only available to internal government and stakeholder end users through UK DSTL.Abstract. Following empirical research on the dynamics of conflict and cooperation under climate change, conditions, pathways, and societal responses in the climate–security nexus are analysed. Complex interactions between climate risks and conflict risks are connected to models of tipping points, compounding and cascading risks in the context of multiple crises. System and agent models of conflict and cooperation are considered to analyse dynamic trajectories, equilibria, stability, and chaos, along with adaptive decision rules in multi-agent interaction and related tipping, cascading, networking, and transformation processes. In particular, a bi-stable tipping model is applied to study transitions between conflict and cooperation, depending on internal and external factors and on multi-layered interaction networks of agents, showing how negative forces can reduce resilience to and induce collapse of violent conflict. The case study of Lake Chad is used for illustration to bridge disciplines and demonstrate climate change as a risk multiplier from a modelling perspective. These models relate to realities on the ground, where governance approaches and community behaviour can either lower or raise barriers to climate-induced conflict, exemplified by forced migration and militant forces lowering barriers and chances for cooperation. Adaptive and anticipative governance (AAG) based on integrative research and agency are discussed to prevent and contain climate-induced tipping to violent conflict and induce positive tipping towards cooperative solutions and synergies, e.g. through civil conflict transformation (CCT), environmental peacebuilding, and forward-looking policies for Earth system stability.The authors acknowledge financial support by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) under Excellence Strategy EXC 2037 (project number: 390683824) “Climate, Climatic Change, and Society” (CLICCS) contributing to the Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN) of University of Hamburg (Jürgen Scheffran); the USAFOFSR Networked Social Influence and Acceptance in a New Age of Crises (grant no. FA8655-20-1-7031) and the Alan Turing Institute (D&S) GUARD project (Weisi Guo); strategic research support from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Norway and Sweden (Florian Krampe); and a UKRI Future Leaders Fund (grant no.MR/V022318/1) offered to Uche OkparaEarth System Dynamic
Climate Change, Security Risks, and Violent Conflicts: Essays from Integrated Climate Research in Hamburg
Get PDFResearch on security-related aspects of climate change is an important element of climate change impact assessments. Hamburg has become a globally recognized center of pertinent analysis of the climate-conflict-nexus. The essays in this collection present a sample of the research conducted from 2009 to 2018 within an interdisciplinary cooperation of experts from Universität Hamburg and other institutions in Hamburg related to the research group "Climate Change and Security" (CLISEC). This collection of critical assessments covers a broad understanding of security, ranging from the question of climate change as a cause of violent conflict to conditions of human security in the Anthropocene. The in-depth analyses utilize a wide array of methodological approaches, from agent-based modeling to discourse analysis
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