245 research outputs found
Hedging Behaviour of Czech Exporting Firms
No full textThe hedging behaviour of Czech exporting firms is analysed using questionnaire information and interviews with banks. Approximately 60% of the 184 firms surveyed hedge their FX exposures, and about 88% of their exports are hedged. Most exporters use natural hedging, i.e. they balance incoming and outgoing payments in foreign currency as well as foreign currency assets and liabilities. Hedgers on financial markets prefer forwards and zero-cost option structures, as they are reluctant to pay option premiums. The typical maturity of financial instruments is three months to one year. More than one half of exporters hedge consistently, while around 60% hedge actively, taking advantage of currency moves. Our simple model of hedging behaviour for example suggests that trading within a group reduces the need for hedging.Exchange rate exposure, exchange rate risk, exports, hedging behaviour.
Central Bank Forecasts as a Coordination Device
No full textDo private analysts coordinate their forecasts via central bank forecasts? In this paper, we examine private and central bank forecasts for the Czech Republic. The evolution of the standard deviation of private forecasts as well as the distance from the central bank’s forecasts are used to study whether a coordination effect exists, how it is influenced by uncertainty, and the effects of changes in central bank communication. The results suggest that private analysts coordinate their forecasts for the interest rate and inflation, while no or limited evidence exists for the exchange rate and GDP growth.Central bank, coordination, forecast.
Essays on Exporting Behavior of Firms and on Inflation Persistence
No full textResearch Journal Articles Working Papers Research in Brief Series Dissertations Other Publications Featured Article Dissertations Date: Tuesday, June 02, 2009 - 10:30 Branislav Saxa: "Essays on Exporting Behavior of Firms and on Inflation Persistence" Dissertation Committee: Jan Hanousek (chair) Evžen Kočenda Lubomír Lízal Krešimir Žigić Abstract: In the first two essays, I examine the behavior of exporters and non-exporters using a rich firmlevel panel data source from the Czech Republic. The first essay reacts to recent literature on learning-by exporting and explores whether exporting firms are more productive because initially more productive firms self-select themselves into exporting or because exporting firms are becoming more productive. To provide convincing estimates, one must be able to disentangle learning-by-exporting from changes in company management that induce the company to both start exporting and introduce productivity increasing measures. Therefore, I compare estimates based on matching on propensity score, which do not control for potential management changes, to estimates based on an instrumental variables strategy. Specifically, I focus on firms that start exporting due to changes in the industry-specific ratio of producer prices on domestic and foreign markets. The results suggest..
Inflation Persistence in New EU Member States: Is It Different Than in the Euro Area Members?
No full textIs inflation persistence in the new EU Member States (NMS) comparable to that in the euro area countries? We argue that persistence may not be as different between the two country groups as one might expect. We confirm that one should work carefully with the usual estimation methods when analyzing the NMS, given the scope of the convergence process they went through. We show that due to frequent breaks in inflation time series in the NMS, parametric statistical measures assuming a constant mean deliver substantially higher persistence estimates for the NMS than for the euro area countries. Employing a time-varying mean leads to the reversal of this result and suggests similar or lower inflation persistence for the NMS compared to euro area countries. Structural measures show that backward-looking behavior may be a more important component in explaining inflation dynamics in the NMS than in the euro area countries.Inflation persistence, new hybrid Phillips curve, new member states, timevarying mean.
Branislav Nusic and X-rays in the story “Roentgen’s Photography”
No full textIntroduction. Shortly after the discovery of X-rays, their practical
application in the clinical practice became the object of interest of many
non-medical individuals. One of them was the famous Serbian writer,
Branislav Nusic. This paper presents the life and work of Branislav Nusic,
as well as his article: ?Roentgen?s Photography? which was published in the
journal ?Politics? (July 8, 1906; N? 892, p. 3), under the alias Ben Akiba,
in the Cyrillic script. The life and work of Branislav Nusic. Alchiviadi
Nu?a, later Branislav Nusic (1864 - 1938) was a great Serbian literate,
playwright, journalist, photographer, politician, diplomat, member of the
Serbian Royal Academy, President of the Association of Yugoslav Playwrights,
manager of the theaters in Belgrade, Novi Sad, Skopje and Sarajevo, and a
military volunteer in the Serbian - Bulgarian war (1885). ?Roentgen?s
Photography?. The author wrote this text in his own way, the only way he
could and knew, vividly and wittily. He knew about the great power and
strength of X-ray radiation, and he wrote of his knowledge in this short
story. Without Branislav Nusic, the history of Serbian radiology would be
poorer for not seeing the X-rays by the eyes of an educated, intelligent
and, above all, humorous writer. Conclusion. Branislav Nusic, alongside
Nikola Tesla, Mihajlo Pupin Idvorski, Dr. Abraham Vinaver, and all past and
present Serbian radiologists, has become an essential and memorable link in
the chain of the history of the Serbian radiology.</jats:p
Fairness and Squareness: Fair Decision Making Rules in the EU Council?
No full textThe concept of fair representation of voters in a committee representing different voters’ groups, such as national representations in union of states, is discussed. This concept, introduced into discussion about voting rights in the Council of European Union in 2004, was narrowed to proposal of distribution of voting weights among the member states proportionally to square roots of population. Such a distribution should guarantee the same indirect voting power to each EU citizen, measured by Penrose-Banzhaf index of voting power. In this paper we attempt to clarify this concept.Council of Ministers, indirect voting power, Penrose-Banzhaf power index, Shapley-Shubik power index, square root rule, simple voting game
Nine hundred fifteenth (915th) by Branislav Nušić
No full textStudying the three components of a literary work Nine hundred fifteenth by Branislav Nušić - historical, narrative and religious - the author determines it as a historical epic novel. The retreat of the Serbian army and people trough Kosovo and Albania in 1915 caused by the invasion of the Austro-Hungarian army, which is the subject of this work, is one of the most tragic events in Serbian history. For its historical reliability, interesting and exciting storytelling, profound and multiple human messages - according to the author - this novel deserves to be ranked within the best Serbian historical novels
The Role of Inflation Persistence in the Inflation Process in the New EU Member States
No full textThe aim of this paper is to compare inflation persistence between the New Member States (NMS) that joined the European Union in 2004 and 2007 and selected euro area members. If the levels of inflation persistence between the two groups are different, the NMS may encounter problems with fulfilling the Maastricht criterion on inflation and – after entering the euro area – with inflation divergence. We argue that the specific economic situation of the NMS in the last 15 years necessitates careful selection of inflation persistence measures. Two measures are estimated. The first one is based on a simple univariate statistical model of inflation with a time-varying mean. The second one assumes that inflation follows a fractionally integrated process and measures inflation persistence within an ARFIMA model. Statistical tests suggest that the model with a time-varying mean is preferable to the ARFIMA model for almost all countries. The estimation results show that inflation persistence is not an issue for all of the NMS. On the one hand, Bulgaria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Malta, Romania, and Slovakia exhibit persistence levels similar to those in the selected euro area countries. On the other hand, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Slovenia encounter a problem with high persistence stemming from both high intrinsic and high expectations-based inflation persistence.inflation persistence, new member states, time-varying mean, central bank credibility, ARFIMA model, Bayesian estimation, Kalman filter
Learning-by-Exporting or Managerial Quality? Evidence from the Czech Republic
No full textThis paper employs fi rm-level panel data from the Czech Republic to investigate the empirical relevance of the learning-by-exporting hypothesis. To provide convincing estimates, one must be able to disentangle learning-by-exporting from changes in company management that induce the company to both start exporting and introduce productivity increasing measures. Therefore, I compare estimates, which do not control for potential management changes, to estimates based on an instrumental variables strategy. Specifically, I focus on fi rms that start exporting due to changes in the industry-specific exchange rate and industry-specific ratio of producer prices on domestic and foreign markets. The results suggest that different kinds of productivity enhancements can be attributed to learning-by-exporting on one side and managerial effects on the other side.Exporting; productivity; matching on propensity score; Local Average Treatment Effect (LATE)
Forecasting Mortgages:Internet Search Data as a Proxy for Mortgage Credit Demand
No full textThis paper examines the usefulness of Google Trends data for forecasting mortgage lending in the Czech Republic. While the official monthly statistics on mortgage lending come with a publication lag of one month, the data on how often people search for mortgage-related terms on the internet are available without any lag on a weekly basis. Growth in searches for mortgages and growth in mortgages actually provided are strongly correlated. The lag between these two growth rates is two months. Evaluation of out-of-sample forecasts shows that internet search data improve mortgage lending predictions significantly. In addition to forecasting performance evaluation, an experimental indicator of restrictively tight mortgage credit standards and conditions is proposed. Nowadays many countries run bank lending surveys to monitor the tightness of bank lending standards and conditions. The proposed indicator represents a complementary tool to such a survey
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