9 research outputs found
Interannual Variability of Snowiness and Avalanche Activity in the Ile Alatau Ridge, Northern Tien Shan
No full textSnowiness and avalanche activity are very important natural characteristics of mountain areas. They have a great influence on the possibility of areas’ development, especially regarding winter recreation. This article considers the interannual variability of snowiness and avalanche activity in the Ile Alatau Ridge (Northern Tien Shan), which belongs to the areas with a continental snow climate. The sum of winter precipitation and snow depth are used as snowiness indices, and the indices of avalanche activity are the total avalanche volume, maximum avalanche volume and number of avalanches. The work uses archival data for the period from 1966 to 2022. Interannual variability of snowiness and avalanche activity indices and long-term temporal trends were assessed, correlation between these indices was studied, and extreme values with different return periods were calculated. The relationship between years with a high snowiness and years with a high avalanche activity, as well as years with a high avalanche activity and years with a large number of avalanche victims and high avalanche damage has been studied. Similar studies have not been previously carried out for the areas with a continental snow climate. Snowiness indices have weak, non-significant, increasing temporal trends. The total avalanche volume has a non-significant decreasing temporal trend, and the maximum avalanche volume has a significant decreasing one. The number of avalanches has a significant increasing temporal trend. This study could be relevant for understanding the features of temporal variability of snowiness and avalanche activity in the mountainous regions with a continental snow climate
Comment on ‘Empirical versus modelling approaches to the estimation of measurement uncertainty caused by primary sampling’ by J. A. Lyn, M. H. Ramsey, A. P. Damant and R. Wood
No full textRecently, Lyn et al. (Analyst, 2007, 132, 1231) compared two ways of estimating the standard uncertainty of sampling pistachio nuts for aflatoxins – a modelling method and an empirical method. Their case study used robust analysis of variance (RANOVA) to derive the uncertainty estimates, highlighting a substantial difference between the two: the estimate of sampling uncertainty derived from the modelling method was six-fold greater than that using the empirical approach (cf. 136% and 22.5%, respectively, when expressed as relative standard deviations (RSDs) at 68% confidence). A further analysis of this case study is reported here and suggests that the estimation uncertainty during RANOVA in the empirical approach could account for this difference.Radiation, Radionuclides and ReactorsApplied Science
Anchor Ice Dams and Water–Ice Flows on the Rivers of the Mountains of Southeastern Kazakhstan
No full textAnchor ice dams and water–ice flows are widespread on the mountain rivers of Southeastern Kazakhstan. Due to the mild winter climate, continuous ice cover is not formed on these rivers. During severe cold spells, anchor and shore ice accumulate in various river sections and causes water levels to rise by 1.5–2 m compared to winter low flows. In the event of a rapid warming, the ice breaks apart, forming water flows mixed with ice debris similar to mudflows. These flows move at high speeds and can cause significant destruction and loss of life. Our research aims to study the characteristics and formation conditions of these flows. Statistical methods were applied to analyze the data, revealing that thermal conditions greatly influence the formation of anchor ice. During these periods, minimum air temperatures drop below −20 °C, and the rate of cooling can reach 10 °C per day. An empirical formula for water level rise based on cumulative daily air temperatures was derived. The ice dam growth rate reaches 61 cm/day. Rapid ice breakage occurs during sharp warming periods. Sometimes this causes destructive water–ice flows similar to mudflows. The volume of the water–ice flow can exceed 10,000 m3, the path length can reach 8 km, the maximum speed exceeds 10 m/s, the flow depth can reach 5 m, and the discharge can be as high as 300 m3/s. The Random Forest algorithm identified characteristic meteorological conditions for water–ice flow formation. The most important meteorological parameters for the formation of water–ice flows are the 5-day sum of daily air temperature during the cooling period and the daily gradient of air temperature during the warming period
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD IN THE TURGENT RIVER BASIN AND ITS IMPACT ON TOURISM DEVELOPMENT
No full textThis article examines the impact of debris flow hazard resulting from glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) on the
development of recreation in the Turgen River valley, located in the Ile Alatau Range (Northern Tien Shan, Kazakhstan). The
study is based on a comprehensive analysis of bathymetric surveys of moraine-glacial lakes, detailed field observations, and
meteorological data from 2024, which provide up-to-date insights into hydrometeorological conditions and glacial lake
dynamics. The research focuses on understanding the potential triggers and consequences of GLOFs in a seismically active and
climatically sensitive alpine environment. To determine the potential extent of debris flow propagation, numerical modeling was
carried out using the RAMMS software (Debris Flow module), which enabled the construction of three possible breach and
debris flow scenarios, taking into account valley geometry, topographic conditions, and key flow parameters such as height,
velocity, and dynamic pressure. These scenarios were selected to reflect both worst-case and more probable events, allowing for
a robust evaluation of hazards. A risk assessment of catastrophic debris flow occurrence and their potential impact on the
region’s tourism infrastructure - such as roads, trails, visitor centers, and recreational sites - was conducted. The findings reveal
specific zones of high vulnerability and inform targeted mitigation strategies. Recommendations for reducing debris flow risks
and ensuring the sustainable development of tourism in mountainous regions are also proposed. The study highlights the
importance of integrating scientific research, geospatial modeling, and hazard risk assessment into comprehensive natural hazard
risk management practices to support safe and sustainable territorial development in high-altitude tourist destinations
Application of Artificial Intelligence in the Assessment and Forecast of Avalanche Danger in the Ile Alatau Ridge
No full textThe assessment and forecast of avalanche danger are very important means of preventing avalanche fatalities, especially in recreational areas. The use of artificial intelligence methods for these purposes significantly increases the accuracy of avalanche forecasts. The purpose of this re-search was to improve the methods for assessing and forecasting avalanche danger in the Ile Alatau Ridge. To create a training sample, the data from three meteorological and two avalanche stations for the period from 2002 to 2022 were used. The following predictors were chosen: air temperature, snow cover depth, precipitation, and snowpack stability index. The subject of the assessment and forecasts was the level of avalanche danger, assessed on a five-point scale. The program Statistica StatSoft was used as a neurosimulator. When forecasting avalanche danger, the predictive values of air temperature and precipitation, obtained from numerical weather forecast models, were used. The model correctly assessed the current level of avalanche danger in 90% of cases. The forecast of avalanche danger was justified in 80% of cases. The artificial intelligence program helped the avalanche forecaster to improve the forecast quality. This method is currently being used for compiling an avalanche bulletin for two river basins in the Ile Alatau
Geospatial Mudflow Risk Modeling: Integration of MCDA and RAMMS
No full textThis article presents a comprehensive assessment of mudflow risk in the Talgar River basin through the application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) methods and numerical modeling using the Rapid Mass Movement Simulation (RAMMS) environment. The first part of the study involves a spatial assessment of mudflow hazard and susceptibility using GIS technologies and MCDA. The key condition for evaluating mudflow hazard is the identification of factors influencing the formation of mudflows. The susceptibility assessment was based on viewing the area as an object of spatial and functional analysis, enabling determination of its susceptibility to mudflow impacts across geomorphological zones: initiation, transformation, and accumulation. Relevant criteria were selected for analysis, each assigned weights based on expert judgment and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The results include maps of potential mudflow hazard and susceptibility, showing areas of hazard occurrence and risk impact zones within the Talgar River basin. According to the mudflow hazard map, more than 50% of the basin area is classified as having a moderate hazard level, while 28.4% is subject to high hazard, and only 1.8% falls under the very high hazard category. The remaining areas are categorized as very low (4.1%) and low (14.7%) hazard zones. In terms of susceptibility to mudflows, 40.1% of the territory is exposed to a high level of susceptibility, 35.6% to a moderate level, and 5.5% to a very high level. The remaining areas are classified as very low (1.8%) and low (15.6%) susceptibility zones. The predictive performance was evaluated through Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves, and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) value of the mudflow hazard assessment is 0.86, which indicates good adaptability and relatively high accuracy, while the AUC value for assessing the susceptibility of the territory is 0.71, which means that the accuracy of assessing the susceptibility of territories to mudflows is within the acceptable level of model accuracy. To refine the spatial risk assessment, mudflow modeling was conducted under three scenarios of glacial-moraine lake outburst using the RAMMS model. For each scenario, key flow parameters—height and velocity—were identified, forming the basis for classification of zones by impact intensity. The integration of MCDA and RAMMS results produced a final mudflow risk map reflecting both the likelihood of occurrence and the extent of potential damage. The presented approach demonstrates the effectiveness of combining GIS analysis, MCDA, and physically-based modeling for comprehensive natural hazard assessment and can be applied to other mountainous regions with high mudflow activity
Changes in Intra-Annual River Runoff in the Ile and Zhetysu Alatau Mountains Under Climate Change Conditions
No full textThis paper presents the results of studies on intra-annual runoff changes in the Ile River basin based on data from gauging stations up to 2021. Changes in climatic characteristics that determine runoff formation in the mountainous and foothill areas of the river catchment have led to alterations in the water regime of the watercourses. The analysis of the temporal and spatial patterns of river flow formation in the basin, as well as its distribution by seasons and months, is essential for solving applied water management problems and assessing the risks of hazardous hydrological phenomena, such as high floods and low water levels. The statistical analysis of annual and monthly river runoff fluctuations enabled the identification of relatively homogeneous estimation periods during stationary observations under varying climatic conditions. The obtained characteristics of annual and intra-annual river runoff in the Ile River basin for the modern period provide insights into changes in average monthly water discharge and, more broadly, runoff volume during different phases of the water regime. In the future, these characteristics are expected to guide the design of hydraulic structures and the rational use of surface runoff in this intensively developing region of Kazakhstan
Bobbles and values: An ethnography of de-bobbling garments in postsocialist urban Romania
No full textBased on research on clothing consumption in a provincial Romanian town, this article focuses on bobbling (pilling) and on reflections on its appearances and progression. Bobbling is considered an index of a faulty or decaying materiality, and an index of usage and, possibly, carelessness and hardship. It limits an individual’s ability to project a desired self. It hints at an individual’s inability to present a renewed self. It not only disrupts a common process of value creation through the act of dressing, but also exposes a disputed process of value creation through the consumption of certain objects. It foregrounds a predisposition to equate the value of objects with the value of people. It affects a sense of self-worth. The author demonstrates that a preoccupation with bobbling reflects deeper concerns and frequent deliberations over value in postsocialist Romania
Abstracts of The Second Eurasian RISK-2020 Conference and Symposium
Get PDFThis abstract book contains abstracts of the various research ideas presented at The Second Eurasian RISK-2020 Conference and Symposium.The RISK-2020 Conference and Symposium served as a perfect venue for practitioners, engineers, researchers, scientists, managers and decision-makers from all over the world to exchange ideas and technology about the latest innovation developments dealing with risk minimization
