168,068 research outputs found
The Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect: A Survey of Empirical Evidence
No full textThe paper surveys empirical evidence on the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson effect. The survey encompasses the published empirical work on the phenomenon since its (re)discovery in 1964. In total, 58 empirical papers are examined within a specialized analytical framework. The body of empirical evidence is synthesized through four major elements. The analysis starts with the ongoing controversy related to the name of the theory. This is followed by a presentation of the evolution of the theoretical and econometric model. It ends with an analysis of the results of the surveyed empirical studies. Results of the survey indicate that growing body of evidence definitely points towards professional rethinking about the significance of the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson effect.Harrod Balassa Samuelson effect, real exchange rate, purchasing power parity, productivity
The Political Economy of Textbook Writing: Paul Samuelson and the making of the first ten Editions of Economics (1945-1976)
No full textOver the past two decades, numerous contributions to the history of economics have tried to assess Paul Samuelson’s political positioning by tracing it in the subsequent editions of his famous textbook Economics. This literature, however, has provided no consensus about the location of Samuelson’s political ideas. While some authors believe that Samuelson has always had inclinations toward interventionism, others conclude that he more often acted as a pro-business advocate. The purpose of this paper is not to argue for one of these two interpretations but to depict the making of Economics itself as a political process. By ‘political’ it is not meant the conduct of party politics but the many political elements that a textbook author has to take into account if he wants to be published and favorably received. I argue that the “middle of the road” stance that Samuelson adopted in the book was consciously constructed by the MIT economist, with the help of his home institution and his publishing company, McGraw-Hill, to ensure both academic freedom and the success of the book. The reason for which the stance developed is related to pre-McCarthyist right-wing criticisms of the textbook and how Samuelson and the MIT department had to endure the pressures from members of the Corporation (MIT’s Board of Trustees), who tried to prevent the publication of the textbook and threatened Samuelson’s tenure at MIT as soon as 1947 – when early manuscripts were circulated. As a result, it was decided in accordance with both the Corporation and McGraw-Hill that the Readings volume would be published to balance conflicting ideas about state intervention. Following these early criticisms, the making of the subsequent editions relied on a network of instructors and referees all over the US in order to make it as successful and consensual as possible. This seemed to work quite well in the 1950s and for a good portion of the 1960s, until Economics became victim of its own success and was seen, in an ironical twist of fate, as a right wing text by younger, radical economists. From now on, Samuelson will try to have his book sent as often as possible to the radicals for referring process, with mixed results. Eventually, the book became criticized from both its left and its right.Paul Samuelson, Economics, Textbook, Politics, Economic Education
The Balassa-Samuelson Effect in 'East & West'. Differences and Similarities
No full textBased on two detailed Balassa-Samuelson (BS) studies, Wagner and Hlouskova (2004) for eight Central Eastern European countries (CEECs) and Wagner and Doytchinov (2004) for ten Western European countries (WECs), this study assesses the differences and similarities of the BS effect between these two country groups. The econometric results show that the BS effect may have been overestimated in previous studies due to application of inappropriate first generation panel cointegration methods. When appropriately quantified, the BS effect itself explains RER movements respectively inflation differentials only to a small extent. However, extended BS relationships that include additional variables allow for an adequate modelling of inflation. Based on the comparative analysis we draw some conclusions for monetary policy in the future enlarged Euro Area.Balassa-Samuelson effect, Central and Eastern Europe, Western Europe, Non-stationary panels, Inflation simulations
Price Convergence: What Can the Balassa-Samuelson Model Tell Us? (in English)
No full textThe article contributes to the theory of convergence in the price level and relative prices. The authors present a model integrating the Balassa-Samuelson model of real equilibrium exchange rate with a model of capital accumulation and with the demand side of the economy. They also show how the Balassa-Samuelson model can be extended to the case of more than two goods. The predictions of the Balassa-Samuelson model are generally consistent with empirical findings in Central and Eastern European countries. The authors show how the model can be used toward projecting price convergence in a transition economy.inflation; relative prices; Balassa-Samuelson model
Harrod, Balassa and Samuelson (Re)Visit Eastern Europe
No full textIn this paper we investigate Harrod Balassa Samuelson (HBS) effect in 11 transition countries. A large number of empirical papers based on quite limited datasets has already been published on HBS in Eastern Europe. The major contribution of this paper is the fact that we estimate HBS with NACE6 quarterly national account data which enables us to divide data into tradable and nontradable sector as suggested by De Gregorio, Giovannini and Wolf (1994) without any unrealistic assumptions. Following Bergstrand (1991) together with relative productivity we also employ share of government consumption in GDP as an explanatory variable. Unlike in previous studies, results have indicated that it is possible to find univariate cointegrating vectors only in Bulgaria, Croatia and Lithuania, and panel cointegration test has indicated that it is possible to find strong evidence of cointegration in post 2000 sample. For the post 1995 period, rejection of the null hypothesis is dependent on the inclusion of government consumption as independent variable and methodology used (DOLS vs. OLS cointegration test).Harrod Balassa Samuelson effect, Price convergence, Transition countries, panel cointegration tests
Balassa-Samuelson, Product Differentiation and Transition
No full textRecent panel studies have found relatively high estimates for the elasticity of real exchange rates with respect to productivity measures in transition economies within Balassa-Samuelson frameworks. This contrasts with other findings reporting cross-section price-income elasticity estimates to depend positively on average income in the sample. This paper aims to reconcile both results by putting real exchange rate developments of transition economies in an international perspective. We illustrate the special status of these economies in a simple world-wide Balassa-Samuelson-type price-income benchmark relationship between a real exchange rate measure (Penn World Table comparative prices, i.e., exchange rate gaps) and PPP-adjusted per capita income. A pronounced undervaluation at the start of transition, followed by a strong appreciation results in normalisation towards the benchmark for Central and East European economies (CEEC) but not for the CIS. We then make an attempt at extending the simple price-income relationship to incorporate other real factors as well as reforms related to price deregulation. Our results imply that, when accounting for demand shifts, external liberalisation, and especially for reform effort, the price-income-elasticity for CEEC economies was not different from that of non-transition economies during the nineties.Balassa-Samuelson, transition
Can we identify Balassa-Samuelson effects with measures of product variety?
No full textThe Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis – i.e. that real exchange rates between each pair of countries increase with the tradables sector productivities ratio between these countries, and decrease with their non-tradables sector productivities ratio – has been one of the most prominent frameworks in open economy macroeconomics for more than forty years. However, empirical studies have often been unable to confirm it. We argue that this might at least in part be due to measurement errors leading to downward-biased estimates. We test the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis with innovative trade-based vari-ety measures to differentiate between tradables and non-tradables sector productivities that do not suffer from such errors-in-variables. Using a pairwise regression approach, we find stable and very robust Balassa-Samuelson effects over all our specifications.Balassa-Samuelson, product variety, measurement errors, pairwise regressions
Testing the BalassA-Samuelson hypothesis in two different groups of countries: OECD and Latin America
No full textThis paper studies the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis (BSH) in the context of two areas with strong differences in economic development, twelve OECD countries and twelve Latin American economies, taking the USA as the benchmark. Applying panel cointegration techniques, we find that while the first stage of the hypothesis, which links productivities and prices, is satisfied in each group of countries, the second stage, which relates relative sector prices with the real exchange rate, only holds in the Latin American area. The failure of the latter in the OECD countries as a whole is reflected in departures from PPP in the tradable sectors.Balassa-Samuelson effect, Panel cointegration, Economic development, Exchange rate systems
Balassa-Samuelson Effect in Transition Economies: The Case of Slovenia
No full textPaper presents a first-hand examination of the Balassa-Samuelson effect in Slovenia. Different measures of real exchange rate are presented in order to provide arguments for the Balassa-Samuelson effect estimation using external real exchange rate measure. It is argued that on average one percent increase in productivity differential between labor productivities in industry and services appreciated external real exchange rate by almost 1.5 percent in the period from 1993:1 to 2001:2. At the same time, one percent increase in productivity differential caused about 1.7 percent increase in CPI. The results are in line with other studies on real exchange rate behavior in transition economies.transition economies, real exchange rate, Balassa-Samuelson effect
Balassa-Samuelson Meets South Eastern Europe, the CIS and Turkey: A Close Encounter of the Third Kind?
No full textThis paper investigates the importance of the Balassa-Samuelson effect for two acceding countries (Bulgaria and Romania), two accession countries (Croatia and Turkey) and two CIS countries (Russia and Ukraine). The paper first studies the basic assumptions of the Balassa-Samuelson effect using yearly data, and then undertakes an econometric analysis of the assumptions on the basis of monthly data. The results suggest that for most of the countries, there is either amplification or attenuation, implying that any increase in the open sector's productivity feeds onto changes in the relative price of non-tradables either imperfectly or in an over-proportionate manner. With these results as a background, the size of the Balassa-Samuelson effect is derived. For this purpose, a number of different sectoral classification schemes are used to group sectors into open and closed sectors, which makes a difference for some of the countries. The Balassa-Samuelson effect is found to play only a limited role for inflation and real exchange rate determination, and it seems to be roughly in line with earlier findings for the eight new EU member states of Central and Eastern EuropeBalassa-Samuelson effect, productivity, inflation, real exchange rate, transition, South Eastern Europe, CIS, Turkey
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