5 research outputs found
Investigating Physics Behind the Rapid Intensification and Catastrophic Landfall of Cyclone ‘Titli’ (2018) in the Bay of Bengal
No full text175-181The present study delineates the role of ocean conditions in the genesis and rapid intensification (RI) of a very severe
cyclonic storm (VSCS) ‘Titli’ (2018). The tropical cyclone (TC) formed over the warm waters of the east-central Bay of
Bengal during 08-13 October 2018. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the cyclone was the most
damaging storm to hit any coast of India in the year 2018, making it a special case of analysis. In the present study, 10 m
winds , Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Latent heat flux, and relative vorticity (RV) during the lifespan of the cyclone are
studied using ECMWF reanalysis V5 (ERA5) prepared by European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts
(ECMWF). Further, the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) data generated by the Indian National Centre for Ocean
Information Services (INCOIS) in Hyderabad is used to study the important information about the oceanic conditions of the
TC. The investigation of the TC’s sea surface temperature data from satellites reveals that a relatively warmer SST prevailed
during the cyclone’s occurrence, which may have been the primary factor in the TC’s rapid intensification. Further, the
latent Heat flux (LHF) and TCHP values were also found high in conjunction with SST values. Our in-depth analysis reveals
that the 10 m winds embedded into the TC were extremely strong, exceeding 12 m/s prior to the landfall. A positive and
large value of RV was found when the TC was about to hit the coast. This may be one of the reasons behind the
‘catastrophic landfall’ of the cyclone
Social determinants of the mental health of pregnant women in Nepal: Stakeholder perspectives.
Get PDFWomen during pregnancy are at a greater risk of experiencing poor mental health, which is one of the major global public health issues, and more so in many developing countries like Nepal, but limited evidence of research on this topic is evident. In this paper, we are focused on exploring the social determinants of the mental health of pregnant women in Nepal from the stakeholder perspectives. This paper utilises eight stakeholder perspectives collected through open-ended in-depth interviews. All the interviews were analysed thematically using an inductive approach. This paper presents three major findings: Inadequate social support, Limited availability and accessibility of maternal health services, and Restricted socioeconomic and cultural context. The inadequate social support from family/relatives, neighbours, community and national policies such as maternity leave, alongside the absence of NGOs/INGOs support, put women at risk of poor mental health. In addition to the inadequate support, limited availability and accessibility of maternal health services potentially cause immense distress among pregnant women. Furthermore, in the context of a patriarchal society, the impact of socioeconomic and cultural context on pregnant women's mental health is also presented as a major determinant of poor mental health among pregnant women. Based on the findings, we conclude that pregnant women are at risk of poor mental health experiences in Nepal and recommend that promoting mental health among pregnant women needs a multifaceted approach that should be considered in all the policies and practices involved in promoting the mental health of pregnant women. [Abstract copyright: Copyright: © 2024 Sah et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Prevalence and determinants of intention to use modern contraceptives among grand-multiparous women in sub-Saharan Africa.
Get PDFSub-Saharan Africa, characterised by high fertility and low contraceptive use prevalence, remains one of the settings with the poorest maternal and child health indices globally. Studies have established that grand-multiparous women are at increased risk of these adverse maternal health outcomes, and contraceptive use is important to averting these adverse outcomes. Thus, this study examines the prevalence and determinants of intention to use modern contraceptives among grand-multiparous women in 10 sub-Saharan African countries with high fertility rates. The study utilized data from the last installments of the Demographic and Health Survey from the 10 leading countries with the highest total fertility rates in sub-Saharan Africa. These countries include: Angola, Benin, Burundi, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, the Republic of the Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Mali, Niger, and Nigeria. Data analysis of 23,500 grand-multiparous women was done at three univariate levels involving a frequency table and bar chart. We employed bivariate logit and multivariate logit regression at the bivariate and multivariate levels to achieve the study objectives. A significant level was determined at p < 0.05. Our study found that less than 40% of grand-multiparous women in these high fertility countries in sub-Saharan Africa, have the intention to use modern contraceptives (39%), but country variations exist with as low as 32.8% in Angola to as high as 71.2% in the Republic of the Congo. The study found that modern contraceptives use intention among grand-multiparous women in these high fertility countries was predicted by a history of contraceptive use and pregnancy termination, exposure to family planning messages on social media, and knowledge of family planning methods. Others were women's fertility planning status, ideal family size, number of marriages (remarriage), couple's fertility desire, current age, and level of education. In the high fertility context of sub-Saharan Africa, characterized by low contraceptive use, improving contraceptive use intention among grand-multiparous women is vital for preventing adverse maternal and child health outcomes, including mortality, resulting from a high-risk pregnancy. Hence, interventions should be more innovative in targeting this group of women to increase the contraceptive prevalence rate in line with Family Planning 2030 goals, and ultimately reduce high fertility rates in the region. [Abstract copyright: © 2022. The Author(s).
Tropical Cyclones Across Global Basins : Dynamics, Tracking Algorithms, Forecasting, and Emerging Scientometric Research Trends
No full textTropical cyclones (TCs) pose significant threats to life and property across global ocean basins, and forecasting their structural evolution, track, and intensity remains a major scientific challenge. This review synthesizes the current understanding of TCs across major basins, that is, the Pacific, Atlantic, and North Indian Oceans, with a focus on the key environmental factors influencing TC behavior, such as sea surface temperature (SST), vertical wind shear (VWS), mid-tropospheric moisture, and land surface conditions. A special emphasis is further placed on the comparative skill of operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models employed globally for TC forecasting. The review also discusses TC tracking algorithms, structural diagnostics, and the evolution of forecasting frameworks, along with emerging research trends revealed through scientometric mapping. The 51 peer-reviewed studies were selected and analyzed, and scientometric analysis was conducted on these 51 studies. Out of these selected studies, 37.25% focused on the Pacific, 23.52% on the Atlantic, and 17.64% on the North Indian Ocean (NIO, that is, the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and Arabian Sea). Out of these 51 studies, it has been found that while most studies utilized satellite-based methods, data assimilation (DA) techniques were emerging during 2006–2013, gaining momentum with machine learning (ML) applications post-2019. Notably, research since 2019 highlights a shift toward machine-based algorithms aimed at improving intensity predictions. While these AI/ML-based TC prediction models show promise, challenges remain in scalability, interpretability, and integration into forecasting workflows. The review emphasizes the need for assimilating next-generation satellite datasets (e.g., CYGNSS, TROPICS, rapid-scan AMVs, LIDAR), improved storm surge modeling, and real-time ensemble forecasting with high spatiotemporal resolution. Ultimately, advancing TC forecasting requires a collaborative, interdisciplinary approach involving model developers, operational centers, and observational programs. Bridging short-term forecasting with climate-informed strategies will be pivotal in enhancing global resilience to cyclonic hazards in a warming world
Investigating Physics Behind the Rapid Intensification and Catastrophic Landfall of Cyclone ‘Titli’ (2018) in the Bay of Bengal
Get PDFThe present study delineates the role of ocean conditions in the genesis and rapid intensification (RI) of a very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS) ‘Titli’ (2018). The tropical cyclone (TC) formed over the warm waters of the east-central Bay of Bengal during 08-13 October 2018. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the cyclone was the most damaging storm to hit any coast of India in the year 2018, making it a special case of analysis. In the present study, 10 m winds , Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Latent heat flux, and relative vorticity (RV) during the lifespan of the cyclone are studied using ECMWF reanalysis V5 (ERA5) prepared by European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Further, the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) data generated by the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) in Hyderabad is used to study the important information about the oceanic conditions of the TC. The investigation of the TC’s sea surface temperature data from satellites reveals that a relatively warmer SST prevailed during the cyclone’s occurrence, which may have been the primary factor in the TC’s rapid intensification. Further, the latent Heat flux (LHF) and TCHP values were also found high in conjunction with SST values. Our in-depth analysis reveals that the 10 m winds embedded into the TC were extremely strong, exceeding 12 m/s prior to the landfall. A positive and large value of RV was found when the TC was about to hit the coast. This may be one of the reasons behind the ‘catastrophic landfall’ of the cyclone
