2,993 research outputs found
The impact of Bt cotton on poor households in rural India
No full textThe impact of genetically modified (GM) crops on the poor in developing countries is still the subject of controversy. While previous studies have examined direct productivity effects of Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton and other GM crops, little is known about wider socioeconomic outcomes. We use a microeconomic modelling approach and comprehensive survey data from India to analyse welfare and distribution effects in a typical village economy. Bt cotton adoption increases returns to labour, especially for hired female workers. Likewise, aggregate household incomes rise, including for poor and vulnerable farmers. Hence, Bt cotton contributes to poverty reduction and rural development
The use of New York cotton futures contracts to hedge cotton price risk in developing countries
No full textCotton exports account for a significant share of commodity exports for some developing countries, especially in West Africa and Central Asia. In these countries, dependency on cotton for export revenues has increased in the past 20 years. These countries therefore have a high exposure to cotton price volatility. Cotton-producing developing countries and economies in transition make little use of hedging mechanisms to reduce risk from the volatility of cotton export revenues. Countries in Francophone West Africa use forward sales to hedge but only for a small share of the crop. These countries could use cotton futures and options contracts to hedge against short- to medium-term price volatility, making cotton export revenues more predictable. Cotton futures and options contracts could also make cotton-related commercial transactions more flexible. (Futures could be sold when there are no buyers in the physical market, for example.) In West Africa, futures and options could complement the existing system of forward sales. The authors examine the feasibility of using New York cotton futures and options contracts as hedging instruments. They base their analysis on a portfolio selection problem in which the hedger selects the optimal proportions of unhedged and hedged output to minimize risk. The results suggest that despite the existence of relatively high basis risk (that is, a relatively low correlation between spot and future prices), hedging reduces cotton price volatility by 30 to 70 percent. Moreover, for all varieties of cotton examined, the hedge ratio (the percentage of exports hedged) was below one. Using a hedge ratio of one (naive hedge), at times, increases rather than decreases risk. The results also show that hedging, while reducing risk, also reduces expected returns. Attitudes toward risk that is, the degree of risk aversion - determine how much of this risk-return tradeoff is acceptable. For a risk-averse agent, the main benefit of hedging lies in risk reduction rather than in the potential for increased returns.Insurance&Risk Mitigation,Environmental Economics&Policies,Non Bank Financial Institutions,Financial Intermediation,Insurance Law
Valuing Transgenic Cotton Technologies Using a Risk/Return Framework
No full textStochastic Efficiency with Respect to a Function (SERF) is used to rank transgenic cotton technology groups and place an upper and lower bound on their value. Yield and production data from replicated plot experiments are used to build cumulative distribution functions of returns for nontransgenic, Roundup Ready, Bollgard, and stacked gene cotton cultivars. Analysis of Arkansas data indicated that the stacked gene and Roundup Ready technologies would be preferred by a large number of risk neutral and risk averse producers as long as the costs of the technology and seed are below the lower bounds calculated in this manuscript.cotton, financial risk, market value, SERF, transgenic, Agribusiness, Crop Production/Industries, Risk and Uncertainty, Q12, Q16,
Risk management prospects for Egyptian cotton
No full textThe authors examine risk management options for Egyptian cottons, the export prices for which are volatile. They use regression analysis to establish whether Egyptian cotton's prices can be effectively hedged by using existing futures contracts on the New York Cotton Exchange. They find no relationship between the movements in prices of Egyptian long and extra-long cottons and prices for the base quality of U.S. medium staple cotton traded on the New York futures market. (Probably because Egyptian cotton prices are government-determined, U.S. medium staple cotton prices are influenced by price support policies unrelated to the longer staple markets, and the fiber of the cottons analyzed have different physical characteristics.) So, the New York cotton futures market's No. 2 contract is not an appropriate mechanism for hedging the price risk facing Egyptian cotton under present procedures for determining prices - and probably not under market-determined prices. If the cotton market in Egypt is liberalized, cotton prices there may correlate more with prices elsewhere - especially for the longer staple cottons. The authors extend their regression analysis to the prices of other medium staple cottons - Australian, Central Asian, Mexican, Pakistani, and Turkish - to determine how they behave relative to U.S. medium staple cotton prices. None of these prices had short-term movements closely related to U.S. cotton prices, indicating mainly the influence of domestic policies on the U.S. market. Again, the New York futures No. 2 contract does not provide a satisfactory hedge for these cottons. The cotton futures contract recently introduced in New York (world cotton contract) - based on the Cotlook A Index - may prove useful for hedging the price risk for some cottons (especially Australian, Central Asian, and Pakistani) but apparently not Egyptian cotton. The authors recommend (together with privatizing the industry) establishing a domestic spot market to give transparency to the price-forming process. When the spot market is functioning well, establishing a foward market could provide a hedging instrument for Egyptian cotton.Markets and Market Access,Crops&Crop Management Systems,Agricultural Research,Textiles, Apparel&Leather Industry,Access to Markets
Cotton : Market setting, trade policies, and issues
No full textThe value of world cotton production in 2000-01 has been estimated at about 35 billion in 1996-97 when cotton prices were 50 percent higher. Although cotton's share in world merchandise trade is insignificant (about 0.12 percent), it is very important to a number of developing countries. Cotton accounts for approximately 40 percent of total merchandise export earnings in Benin and Burkina Faso, and 30 percent in Chad, Mali, and Uzbekistan. Its contribution to GDP in these and other developing countries is substantial, ranging between 5 and 10 percent. Cotton supports the livelihoods of millions in developing countries (at least 10 million in West and Central Africa) where it is a typical, and often dominant, smallholder cash crop. The cotton market also has been subject to considerable market intervention-subsidization in the European Union and the United States, and taxation in Africa and Central Asia. During the past three seasons, annual direct support averaged $4.5 billion. The author reviews the market setting and policy issues and gives recommendations on how industrial and developing cotton-producing countries can improve the policy environment.Textiles, Apparel&Leather Industry,Agricultural Research,Economic Theory&Research,Crops&Crop Management Systems,Environmental Economics&Policies,Crops&Crop Management Systems,Textiles, Apparel&Leather Industry,Agricultural Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Livestock&Animal Husbandry
Cotton-textile-apparel sectors of India:
No full text"Cotton, textiles, and apparel are critical agricultural and industrial sectors in India. This study provides descriptions of these sectors and examines the key developments emerging domestically and internationally that affect the challenges and opportunities the sectors face. More than four million farm households produce cotton in India, and about one-quarter of output is produced by marginal and small farms. Although production has expanded—most recently with the introduction of Bt (Bacillus thuringiensis) cotton—domestic prices dropped sharply in the late 1990s, in parallel to world cotton prices. Using partial equilibrium simulations, we estimate that a price movement of the magnitude that occurred has a significant effect on levels of poverty among cotton-producing households. The fiber-to-fabric production chain, from cotton processing through apparel, employs more than 12 million workers in India and provides 16 percent of export earnings. Except for the spinning industry, these sectors are dominated by small, fragmented, and nonintegrated units, which adversely affect their competitiveness. Recent policy reforms have induced some technological improvements. In terms of future prospects for the Indian processing, textile, and apparel industries, our analysis emphasizes three dimensions of reform—the need for further investments in human resource development to improve industry productivity and reduce poverty among workers in these sectors, the emergence of modern domestic retail marketing chains, and the potentially vibrant prospects for the industry that arise from a growing domestic fabric demand and new opportunities in world markets if appropriate policies and investments are undertaken." from authors' abstractCotton, textiles, Apparel, Rural poverty, subsidies, Industry policy, World markets,
CHINA'S ROLE IN WORLD COTTON AND TEXTILE MARKETS
No full textThe growth of China's textile industry has been one of the dominant factors shaping world cotton and textile markets in recent years. Since China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in December 2001, China's textile and apparel (T&A) exports have grown by more than 40 percent and China's cotton consumption has grown by 34 percent. By the end of 2003, China had nearly doubled its share of world T&A exports in less than a decade, to about 21 percent. T&A exports from China and other developing countries are constrained by quotas originally implemented by developed countries under the Multifibre Arrangement (MFA). Under the Uruguay Round's Agreement on Textiles and Clothing (ATC), these quotas have been gradually phased-out since 1995, with complete removal scheduled for the end of 2004. This study incorporates alternatives of the impact of the ATC's implementation in an analysis of China's textile industry, and its impact in turn on China's cotton sector. The study finds that, assuming equilibrium levels of income and exchange rates, alternative ATC scenarios are expected to increase China's net apparel exports, textile production, cotton consumption, cotton production, and cotton imports. This study also finds that these results are somewhat sensitive to estimates of expected efficiency gains around the world.Agribusiness, Industrial Organization,
Personal Papers (MS 80-0002)
No full textCircular from American Cotton Shippers Association to all members including a report from Robert D. McCallum of a recent meeting with Charles S. Murphy, Secretary of Agriculture
The Doha Round Declaration on Cotton: A Catalyst for Poverty Reduction in Africa?
No full textCotton plays a strategic role in the development policies and poverty reduction programs of a number of African countries. Several African countries have introduced reforms in the cotton sector to improve its quality and competitiveness. The impact of these reforms has to date been virtually nullified by the fact that certain WTO Members continue to apply support measures and subsidies that distort global market prices. These are the arguments behind the Cotton Initiative raised in 2003 in the World Trade Organization (WTO) by Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad and Mali, which reflects the position of the African Group countries until the Sixth WTO Ministerial Conference in Hong Kong recently. In this conference two important policy changes were agreed in international trade of cotton. First, all forms of export subsidies for cotton will be eliminated by developed countries in 2006. Second, developed countries will give duty and quota free access for cotton exports from the least-developed countries (LDCs). This paper uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Zambian economy with a three fold purpose: (a) to study the impact of the Doha Round agreement on the cotton sector in Zambia, (b) to analyze the reality of the Doha agreement versus the African countries' cotton initiative during the WTO Hong Kong conference, and (c) to contribute to the analysis of further agricultural trade liberalization and its implications for poor countries. The results show the extent of the benefits of implementation of both, the Doha WTO Round and the African Countries Proposal in Zambia. We quantify the impacts of both policy initiatives on the Zambian cotton sector (production, exports, prices), and agrarian population welfare. The results show that the positive effects of the Cotton Initiative in Zambia are higher than the Doha Round polices benefits.International Relations/Trade,
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