1,720,976 research outputs found
A non-linear restatement of Kalecki’s business cycle model with non-constant capital depreciation
No full textThis paper deals with Kalecki's 1935 business cycle model, where a finite time lag in the investment dynamics is assumed. The time lag is the gestation period elapsing between orders for capital goods and deliveries of finished industrial equipment. Including the actual mainstream theory, the economic literature agrees on the consequences that time lag has on the economic activity. It is a cause of persistent economic fluctuations. Following some recent research lines on this model, here we restate the Kalecki approach, assuming sigmoidal functions in addition to Kalecki's linear treatment and further considering a non-constant capital depreciation. Never made until now, this last assumption is such that to yield, in place of a delayed differential equation, a Volterra delayed integro-differential equation. Taken the time delay and the rate of capital depreciation as critical parameters, a qualitative study of that equation is carried out. We proved that with a small-time lag stable equilibria arise. But, when the delay increases, equilibria are destabilized through Hopf bifurcations and stability switches occur. Consequently, a variety of cyclical behaviors appear
Fiscal policy lags and income adjustment processes
Full text linkThe interest in the impact of fiscal policy lags on economic stability increased in the last
decade. Several studies have been made on delays either in the government expenditure
or in the tax system, where lags exist between the accrual and the payment of taxes. Nevertheless
there is in the literature no model where time delays in government expenditures
and in tax revenues are considered together as it happens in the real world. In this paper
we remedied this defect and proposed a macro-dynamic model where two delays appear:
the first pertains to the public expenditure, the second, to the tax revenue. The resulting
system of delayed differential equations is studied qualitatively and numerically. The analysis
suggests that only particular combinations of the two delays make the system stable.
Prevalently the system is unstable and chaotic motions may arise. This implies that the
economy may need appropriate structural changes in the public sector to improve fiscal
policy outcomes in such a way they may really be consistent with their stabilization
purposes
"A Simple Growth-Cycle Model Displaying 'Šil’nikov Chaos'"
No full textDeveloped in the middle sixties, Šil’nikov Theory was first applied to the analysis of economic dynamics by H. W. Lorenz in the early nineties, His contribution created some optimism, among economists, about the possibility of employing Šil’nikov’s results to investigate complex dynamics in continuous-time economic models. In spite of this, after almost a decade, there are still no other contributions in the economis dynamic theory which considers chaotic motions arising from the set of conditions underlying the so called “Šil’nikov scenario”. This chapter fills the gap, providing a simple Keynesian growth model with endogenous technical progress and rational expectations which exhibits Šil’nikov dynamics
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