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Ridefinizione degli ambiti territoriali di rilevazione statistica, Rapporto Agenzia per l’Impiego del Friuli Venezia Giulia
Comparing models for quantitative risk assessment: an application to the European Registry of foreign body injuries in children.
Risk Assessment is the systematic study of decisions subject to uncertain consequences. An increasing interest has been focused on modeling techniques like Bayesian Networks since their capability of (1) combining in the probabilistic framework different type of evidence including both expert judgments and objective data; (2) overturning previous beliefs in the light of the new information being received and (3) making predictions even with incomplete data. In this work, we proposed a comparison among Bayesian Networks and other classical Quantitative Risk Assessment techniques such as Neural Networks, Classification Trees, Random Forests and Logistic Regression models. Hybrid approaches, combining both Classification Trees and Bayesian Networks, were also considered. Among Bayesian Networks, a clear distinction between purely data-driven approach and combination of expert knowledge with objective data is made. The aim of this paper consists in evaluating among this models which best can be applied, in the framework of Quantitative Risk Assessment, to assess the safety of children who are exposed to the risk of inhalation/insertion/aspiration of consumer products. The issue of preventing injuries in children is of paramount importance, in particular where product design is involved: quantifying the risk associated to product characteristics can be of great usefulness in addressing the product safety design regulation. Data of the European Registry of Foreign Bodies Injuries formed the starting evidence for risk assessment. Results showed that Bayesian Networks appeared to have both the ease of interpretability and accuracy in making prediction, even if simpler models like logistic regression still performed well. © The Author(s) 2013
Foreign body aspiration in children: Field report of a German hospital
BACKGROUND:
The aspiration of foreign bodies (FB), especially by small children, is a life-threatening situation and can be fatal. The aim of this survey was to study the types of foreign bodies in the upper airways and digestive tract, and the circumstances leading to the aspiration on the basis of hospital records of the Berlin University Hospital in Germany from 1997-2002.
METHODS:
We performed a retrospective review of hospital records using a standardized protocol. Foreign body aspiration that occurred in children aged 0-14 were considered for inclusion in the database. During the study period, 78 patients with a diagnosis of FB were included in the database. Forty-five patients were male and 33 were female. The median age was 1.
RESULTS:
In 89.5% of all cases, the children were under the age of 3. Seventy-five of the 78 patients had a foreign body in the trachea/bronchial trees/lungs based on International Classification of Diseases-9 codes at the time of discharge. At the time the injury occurred, the children had either been eating (41.1%) or playing (50.0%). More than 50% of the children were being supervised by an adult at the time the injury occurred. The foreign bodies (FB) were always extracted by using an endoscopic procedure (n= 43 rigid, n= 6 flexible and n= 29 combination of both methods). Moreover, hospitalization was always required due to an institutional requirement. The most commonly found foreign bodies were seeds, nuts, berries and grains.
CONCLUSION:
Most of the foreign bodies were found in the bronchial tubes, trachea, and lungs. The extraction method from these areas is rigid and/or flexible bronchoscopy or gastrointestinal endoscopy, a procedure requiring anesthesia. There seems to be no association between the aspirated foreign bodies and other purchased objects or packaging material. The fact that a large fraction of the injuries occur under the supervision of the adults suggests that the number and severity of the injuries could be reduced by educating parents and children. Our experience confirms, therefore, that further research into the behavioral aspects leading to FB injuries is needed
Foreign body aspiration in children: field report of a German hospital
BACKGROUND:
The aspiration of foreign bodies (FB), especially by small children, is a life-threatening situation and can be fatal. The aim of this survey was to study the types of foreign bodies in the upper airways and digestive tract, and the circumstances leading to the aspiration on the basis of hospital records of the Berlin University Hospital in Germany from 1997-2002.
METHODS:
We performed a retrospective review of hospital records using a standardized protocol. Foreign body aspiration that occurred in children aged 0-14 were considered for inclusion in the database. During the study period, 78 patients with a diagnosis of FB were included in the database. Forty-five patients were male and 33 were female. The median age was 1.
RESULTS:
In 89.5% of all cases, the children were under the age of 3. Seventy-five of the 78 patients had a foreign body in the trachea/bronchial trees/lungs based on International Classification of Diseases-9 codes at the time of discharge. At the time the injury occurred, the children had either been eating (41.1%) or playing (50.0%). More than 50% of the children were being supervised by an adult at the time the injury occurred. The foreign bodies (FB) were always extracted by using an endoscopic procedure (n= 43 rigid, n= 6 flexible and n= 29 combination of both methods). Moreover, hospitalization was always required due to an institutional requirement. The most commonly found foreign bodies were seeds, nuts, berries and grains.
CONCLUSION:
Most of the foreign bodies were found in the bronchial tubes, trachea, and lungs. The extraction method from these areas is rigid and/or flexible bronchoscopy or gastrointestinal endoscopy, a procedure requiring anesthesia. There seems to be no association between the aspirated foreign bodies and other purchased objects or packaging material. The fact that a large fraction of the injuries occur under the supervision of the adults suggests that the number and severity of the injuries could be reduced by educating parents and children. Our experience confirms, therefore, that further research into the behavioral aspects leading to FB injuries is needed
Adaptive Bayesian Networks for quantitative risk assessment of foreign body injuries in children
Information extraction approaches to unconventional data sources for "Injury Surveillance System": the case of newspapers clippings.
Use of the scale-up methods in injury prevention research: An empirical assessment to the case of choking in children
The scale-up method estimates the size of hard to count subpopulations. This method is based on the idea
that the proportion of subjects in a subpopulation E known to each member of the general population T is
the same as the proportion of members of E belonging to general population T.
The aim of this study is to assess if this method is suitable for estimating the number of foreign body
injuries and for setting up an algorithm in order to choose the most suitable subpopulations to use in estimates.
The scale-up estimator is robust and precise and the selection of subpopulations of known size is improved
by our algorithm
Predicting severity of foreign body injuries in children in upper airways: An approach based on regression trees
The entry of a small item into the upper airways is one of the leading causes of injuries in children up to 14 years old. The aim of this study is to characterize types of objects causing choking along with the features of the children involved in the accident and compare results with current standards. The European Survey on Foreign Bodies Injuries Study (ESFBI) collected data on foreign body injuries from 19 European countries. The data from ESFBI were selected according to the ICD-9-CM codes 933 (foreign body in the pharynx and larynx) and 934 (foreign body in the trachea, bronchi, and lungs). Both a classification tree and a linear discriminant analysis (LDA) have been set up to predict the probability that an injured child experiences a hospitalization. The classification tree provides flowchart-type decision rules and allows for analyzing the impact of the item features, the children characteristics, and the circumstances of the accidents on the severity of the foreign body injuries. Results showed that children younger than 3.5 who are involved in an accident have a high probability to experience a hospitalization
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