47 research outputs found
Italian fiscal policy review 2015
No full textThe macroeconomic and distributive impact of the Italian budget policy implemented in year 2015 is the book focus. On one hand, we argue that fiscal consolidation policies jeopardize GDP growth, already very low, and end up delaying the decrease of public debt/GDP ratio. On the other hand, we argue that implemented policies did not bring about any improvement in Italian distributive inequality, which is one of the highest in Europe. Furthermore, two salient issues regarding fiscal policies are addressed: first, the relationship among tax design, growth and employment. Given the total amount of tax revenues, an increase in tax progressivity is shown to boost employment, and a tax shift from income to consumption to raise growth and employment. The second focus is on the measurement of potential output, which is one of the building blocks of European fiscal governance. Two sections show that the European commission methodology is not only scarcely robust or but also inadequate
Measuring and Analyzing the Liquidity of the Italian Treasury Security Wholesale Secondary Market
No full text
Softer eligibility requirements for the retirement of vulnerable workers and increased smaller amount pensions: income inequality, actuarial fairness
No full textLa legge di bilancio per il 2017 ha introdotto varie innovazioni nella normativa pensionistica. I provvedimenti adottati si concentrano su due principali questioni: l’adeguamento delle importo delle pensioni più basse, il requisito di età per il pensionamento. Nel testo si sostiene che la riduzione del reddito non sembra essere il principale obiettivo delle nuove misure. Tuttavia, l’introduzione di requisiti di pensionamento meno severi per i lavoratori impegnati in occupazioni pesanti, difficoltose o usuranti, oppure in condizioni sociali di vulnerabilità rappresenta una innovazione importante nell’ambito delle politiche mirate al contrasto delle disuguaglianze sociali, di fatto il primo tentativo di tenere conto delle diseguaglianze nelle aspettative di vita nell’ambito delle politiche pensionistiche, e di prevedere requisiti di pensionamento più favorevoli per i lavoratori che hanno minore longevità.The Budget Law for 2017 introduced a wide list of innovations in pension rules. The policy measures were focused on two main areas: the value of annuities of smaller amount; the age requirement for retirement. The paper argues that the reduction of income does not seem to be the main aim of the new measures introduced by Budget Law for 2017. However, the measures which apply softer eligibility requirements to workers in harsh occupations and in vulnerable social conditions can be considered innovative measures among the policies aimed at contrasting social inequalities. In fact, they represent the first attempt to take into account the inequalities in life expectancy in social security policy and reserve favourable eligibility requirements to groups of workers who have shorter longevity
Prezzi e salari prima e dopo la crisi valutaria: simulazioni e previsioni con il modello econometrico del Cer
No full textLe differenze sociali nelle attese di vita. La necessità di un universalismo proporzionale
No full textItalian public pension system will be automatically adjusted to the future variations of life expectancies at late adult age. But will people be healthy enough to work longer? The difference between life expectancy and healthy life expectancy should be considered. Furthermore, the difference between life expectancy and the actual life duration depends not only on random but also on social factors. Taking into account such features of the ageing process implies a reform of pension policies and a reformulation of the same universalism principle
Comment to Martin PALDAM, “A Small Country in Europe’s Integration – Generalizing the Political Economy of the Danish Case”
No full textItalia. Da lavoratori a pensionati poveri. Le misure previdenziali di protezione
No full textNel nostro contributo intendiamo ricostruire il quadro normativo degli interventi rivolti al sostegno dei pensionati poveri, fornire degli elementi di analisi capaci di identificare la tipologia dei pensionati poveri futuri, avanzare delle proposte di riforma degli interventi assistenziali destinati ai pensionati futuri, cioè a quelli totalmente contributivi. Dalla nostra analisi emerge che le situazioni di sofferenza e deprivazione economica saranno concentrate tra i lavoratori che avranno accumulato a settanta anni una anzianità contributiva minore di trenta anni. Gli interventi assistenziali potrebbero essere utilmente riformati estendendo l’istituto della contribuzione figurativa a tutti i lavoratori nei periodi di disoccupazione. Inoltre, potrebbe essere recuperato il principio di valorizzazione dei contributi versati. Quel principio, infatti, è stato completamente annullato per i pensionati poveri in seguito al sovrapporsi negli anni di interventi di natura molto diversa
Disaggregation of official demographic projections in sub-groups by education level: the neglected “composition effect” in the future path of life expectancy
No full textWe developed an innovative method to break down official population forecasts by
educational level. The mortality rates of the High Education group and Low Education
group were projected using an iterative procedure, whose starting point was the life tables
by education level for Italy, based on the year 2012. We provide a set of different
scenarios on the convergence/divergence of the mortality differential between the High
and Low Education groups. In each scenario, the demographic size and the life
expectancy of the two sub-groups were projected annually over the period 2018-2065.
We compared the life expectancy paths in the whole population and in the sub-groups.
We found that in all of our projections, population life expectancy converges to the life
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expectancy of the High Education group. We call this feature of our outcomes the
“composition effect”, and we show how highly persistent it is, even in scenarios where
the mortality differential between social groups is assumed to decrease over time. In a
midway scenario, where the mortality differential is assumed to follow an intermediate
path between complete disappearance in year 2065 and stability at the 2012 level, and in
all the scenarios with a milder convergence hypothesis, our “composition effect” prevails
over the effect of convergence for men and women. For instance, assuming stability in
the mortality differential, we estimated a life expectancy increase at age 65 of 2.9 and 2.6
years for men, and 3.2 and 3.1 for women, in the Low and High Education groups,
respectively, over the whole projection period. Over the same period, Italian official
projections estimate an increase of 3.7 years in life expectancy at age 65 for the whole
population.
Our results have relevant implications for retirement and ageing policies, in particular for
those European countries that have linked statutory retirement age to variations in
population life expectancies. In all the scenarios where the composition effect is not offset
by a strong convergence of mortality differentials, we show that the statutory retirement
age increases faster than the group-specific life expectancies, and this finding implies that
the expected time spent in retirement will shrink for the whole population. This potential
future outcome seems to be an unintended consequence of the indexation rule
Gli effetti regressivi inattesi del sistema pensionistico italiano nel prossimo futuro
No full textIn the near future, the Italian retirement system will be based on a “Non!nancial
De!ned Contribution” scheme: the minimum age at retirement and pension
annuity will depend on the evolution of life expectancy, computed on the whole
population by the National Institute of Statistics. We developed a methodology to
project into the future the di"erential longevity by education, ensuring at same
time coherence between our estimates and the o#cial projections of population size
and vital rates, as computed by the National Institute of Statistics. We projected
life tables by social groups and simulated age at retirement and pension annuity
considering both the average values of the whole population and the speci!c values of
two groups: low educated (i.e. less than Secondary Education level – ISCED levels:
0-2) and high educated (i.e. at least Secondary Education level – ISCED levels:
3 or more). We show how ignoring the interactions between di"erential mortality
and demographic structure of a population, in the computation of minimum legal
age at retirement and pension annuity, has potential and unexpected increasing
regressive e"ects, redistributing time (of retirement) and pension annuity from the
low educated group (with lower life expectancy) to the high educated group (with
higher life expectancy)
