1,721,176 research outputs found
Measuring scholarly performance using comprehensive standardized research-teaching (RT) score
Full text linkUniversity faculty members and participants in scientific competitions are typically evaluated based on metrics derived from their published works and other relevant academic activities. However, designing a robust mathematical algorithm to process bibliometric information is challenging, and accessible computer codes are often scarce. Consequently, evaluation committees may resort to improvised, mathematically inadequate, poorly standardized, and overly simplistic evaluation methods, which can yield unfair and not-transparent outcomes. This paper introduces a novel algorithm, the “RT-score”, designed to assess and rank the research and teaching performance of a group of academics. The RT-score builds upon the “C-score”, which is currently used to generate the “Stanford/Elsevier World Top 2% Most Influential Scientists” list. The RT-score incorporates several complementary bibliometric indicators, including productivity (number of publications), impact (citations), and the involvement of the individual researcher in the published works. The RT-score also emphasizes the most recent and impactful publications while incorporating parameters that account for variations in the number of articles and citation density across different scientific disciplines, funding, and other pertinent aspects. Finally, it combines these metrics with a measure of teaching experience and other academic activities. The RT-score aims to address key recommendations from DORA, CoARA, and the Leiden Manifesto concerning research assessment reform. The supplement provides a MATLAB code that implements the proposed algorithm
I cambiamenti climatici sono regolati da cicli naturali di origine astronomica
No full textLa teoria dell'origine antropogenica del
riscaldamento globale, sostenuta
dall'Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, presenta notevoli limiti. L'analisi della
fenomenologia dei cambiamenti climatici
mostra che circa il 60% del riscaldamento della
Terra osservato sin dal 1970 appare indotto da
cicli naturali che sono presenti nel sistema
solare. Il modello fenomenologico indica una
probabile stabilizzazione del clima o un
raffreddamento fino agli anni 2030-40
I cambi climatici e le loro cause, una discussione su alcuni punti chiave
No full textQuesto articolo discute i limiti dell'Anthropogenic Global Warming Theory che viene proposta dall'IntergovernmentalPanel on
Climate Change. Viene proposta una teoria fenomenologica dei cambi climatici basata sulle proprietà fisiche dei dati stessi. Almeno il
60% delriscaldamento della terra osservato sin dal 1970 appare indotto da cicli naturali che sono presenti nel sistema solare. Una
stabilizzazione del clima o un raffreddamento fino agli anni 2030-40 è previsto dal modello fenomenologico
Reply to Benestad's comment on "Discussions on common errors in analyzing sea level accelerations, solar trends and global warming" by Scafetta (2013)
No full textImpacts and risks of “realistic” global warming projections for the 21st century
Full text linkThe IPCC AR6 assessment of the impacts and risks associated with projected climate changes for the 21st century is both alarming and ambiguous. According to computer projections, global surface temperature may warm from 1.3 °C to 8.0 °C by 2100, depending on the global climate model (GCM) and the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenario used for the simulations. Actual climate-change hazards are estimated to be high and very high if the global surface temperature rises, respectively, more than 2.0 °C and 3.0 °C above pre-industrial levels. Recent studies, however, showed that a substantial number of CMIP6 GCMs run “too hot” because they appear to be too sensitive to radiative forcing, and that the high/extreme emission scenarios SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 are to be rejected because judged to be unlikely and highly unlikely, respectively. Yet, the IPCC AR6 mostly focused on such alarmistic scenarios for risk assessments. This paper examines the impacts and risks of “realistic” climate change projections for the 21st century generated by assessing the theoretical models and integrating them with the existing empirical knowledge on global warming and the various natural cycles of climate change that have been recorded by a variety of scientists and historians. This is achieved by combining the SSP2-4.5 scenario (which is the most likely SSP according to the current policies reported by the International Energy Agency) and empirically optimized climate modeling. According to recent research, the GCM macro-ensemble that best hindcast the global surface warming observed from 1980 to 1990 to 2012–2022 should be made up of models that are characterized by a low equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) (1.5 °C < ECS ≤ 3.0 °C), in contrast to the IPCC AR6 likely and very likely ECS ranges at 2.5–4.0 °C and 2.0–5.0 °C, respectively. I show that the low-ECS macro-GCM with the SSP2-4.5 scenario projects a global surface temperature warming of 1.68–3.09 °C by 2080–2100 instead of 1.98–3.82 °C obtained with the GCMs with ECS in the 2.5–4.0 °C range. However, if the global surface temperature records are affected by significant non-climatic warm biases — as suggested by satellite-based lower troposphere temperature records and current studies on urban heat island effects — the same climate simulations should be scaled down by about 30%, resulting in a warming of about 1.18–2.16 °C by 2080–2100. Furthermore, similar moderate warming estimates (1.15–2.52 °C) are also projected by alternative empirically derived models that aim to recreate the decadal-to-millennial natural climatic oscillations, which the GCMs do not reproduce. The proposed methodologies aim to simulate hypothetical models supposed to optimally hindcast the actual available data. The obtained climate projections show that the expected global surface warming for the 21st-century will likely be mild, that is, no more than 2.5–3.0 °C and, on average, likely below the 2.0 °C threshold. This should allow for the mitigation and management of the most dangerous climate-change related hazards through appropriate low-cost adaptation policies. In conclusion, enforcing expensive decarbonization and net-zero emission scenarios, such as SSP1-2.6, is not required because the Paris Agreement temperature target of keeping global warming < 2 °C throughout the 21st century should be compatible also with moderate and pragmatic shared socioeconomic pathways such as the SSP2-4.5
Solar Oscillations and the Orbital Invariant Inequalities of the Solar System
No full textGravitational planetary lensing of slow-moving matter streaming towards the Sun was suggested to explain puzzling solar-flare occurrences and other unexplained solar-emission phenomena (Bertolucci et al. in Phys. Dark Universe17, 13, 2017). If it is actually so, the effect of gravitational lensing of this stream by heavy planets (Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune) could be manifested in solar activity changes on longer time scales too where solar records present specific oscillations known in the literature as the cycles of Bray–Hallstatt (2100–2500 yr), Eddy (800–1200 yr), Suess–de Vries (200–250 yr), Jose (155–185 yr), Gleissberg (80–100 year), the 55–65 yr spectral cluster and others. It is herein hypothesized that these oscillations emerge from specific periodic planetary orbital configurations that generate particular waves in the force-fields of the heliosphere which could be able to synchronize solar activity. These harmonics are defined by a subset of orbital frequencies herein labeled as “orbital invariant inequalities” of the solar system that derive from the synodical periods among the Jovian planets. Thus, they are associated with the repeating pattern of planetary alignment relative to the Sun when tidal forcing, interplanetary magnetic couplings and planetary lensing effects could be enhanced. These frequencies are physically relevant also because they are invariant relative to any spinning system centered on the Sun and, therefore, they and their combinations should characterize the spectrum of any forcing able to externally synchronizing the internal dynamics of the solar dynamo. Herein the orbital invariant inequalities of the solar system are determined and are demonstrated to cluster around specific spectral bands that exactly correspond to the above spectrum of solar activity. In particular, the orbital invariant inequality model is shown to predict, both in frequency and phase, the Bray–Hallstatt cycle (2100–2500 yr) found in
Δ14C and in climate records throughout the Holocene. The result suggests that some kind of planetary forcing is synchronizing solar internal dynamics
Multi-scale dynamical analysis (MSDA) of sea level records versus PDO, AMO, and NAO indexes
No full textHerein I propose a multi-scale dynamical analysis to facilitate the physical interpretation of tide gauge records. The technique uses graphical diagrams. It is applied to six secular-long tide gauge records representative of the world oceans: Sydney, Pacific coast of Australia; Fremantle, Indian Ocean coast of Australia; New York City, Atlantic coast of USA; Honolulu, US state of Hawaii; San Diego, US state of California; and Venice, Mediterranean Sea, Italy. For comparison, an equivalent analysis is applied to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index and to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index. Finally, a global reconstruction of sea level (Jevrejeva et al. in Geophys Res Lett 35:L08715, 2008) and a reconstruction of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index (Luterbacher et al. in Geophys Res Lett 26:2745-2748, 1999) are analyzed and compared: both sequences cover about three centuries from 1700 to 2000. The proposed methodology quickly highlights oscillations and teleconnections among the records at the decadal and multidecadal scales. At the secular time scales tide gauge records present relatively small (positive or negative) accelerations, as found in other studies (Houston and Dean in J Coast Res 27:409-417, 2011). On the contrary, from the decadal to the secular scales (up to 110-year intervals) the tide gauge accelerations oscillate significantly from positive to negative values mostly following the PDO, AMO and NAO oscillations. In particular, the influence of a large quasi 60-70 year natural oscillation is clearly demonstrated in these records. The multiscale dynamical evolutions of the rate and of the amplitude of the annual seasonal cycle of the chosen six tide gauge records are also studied
The complex planetary synchronization structure of the solar system
No full textThe complex planetary synchronization structure of the solar system, which since Pythagoras of Samos (ca. 570-495 BC) is known as the music of the spheres, is briefly reviewed from the Renaissance up to contemporary research. Copernicus' heliocentric model from 1543 suggested that the planets of our solar system form a kind of mutually ordered and quasi-synchronized system. From 1596 to 1619 Kepler formulated preliminary mathematical relations of approximate commensurabilities among the planets, which were later reformulated in the Titius-Bode rule (1766-1772), which successfully predicted the orbital position of Ceres and Uranus. Following the discovery of the ~ 11 yr sunspot cycle, in 1859 Wolf suggested that the observed solar variability could be approximately synchronized with the orbital movements of Venus, Earth, Jupiter and Saturn. Modern research has further confirmed that (1) the planetary orbital periods can be approximately deduced from a simple system of resonant frequencies; (2) the solar system oscillates with a specific set of gravitational frequencies, and many of them (e.g., within the range between 3 yr and 100 yr) can be approximately constructed as harmonics of a base period of ~ 178.38 yr; and (3) solar and climate records are also characterized by planetary harmonics from the monthly to the millennial timescales. This short review concludes with an emphasis on the contribution of the author's research on the empirical evidences and physical modeling of both solar and climate variability based on astronomical harmonics. The general conclusion is that the solar system works as a resonator characterized by a specific harmonic planetary structure that also synchronizes the Sun's activity and the Earth's climate. The special issue Pattern in solar variability, their planetary origin and terrestrial impacts (Mörner et al., 2013) further develops the ideas about the planetary-solar-terrestrial interaction with the personal contribution of 10 authors
Testing an astronomically based decadal-scale empirical harmonic climate model versus the IPCC (2007) general circulation climate models
No full textWe compare the performance of a recently proposed empirical climate model based on astronomical harmonics against all CMIP3 available general circulation climate models (GCM) used by the IPCC (2007) to interpret the 20th century global surface temperature. The proposed astronomical empirical climate model assumes that the climate is resonating with, or synchronized to a set of natural harmonics that, in previous works (Scafetta, 2010b, 2011b), have been associated to the solar system planetary motion, which is mostly determined by Jupiter and Saturn. We show that the GCMs fail to reproduce the major decadal and multidecadal oscillations found in the global surface temperature record from 1850 to 2011. On the contrary, the proposed harmonic model (which herein uses cycles with 9.1, 10-10.5, 20-21, 60-62 year periods) is found to well reconstruct the observed climate oscillations from 1850 to 2011, and it is shown to be able to forecast the climate oscillations from 1950 to 2011 using the data covering the period 1850-1950, and vice versa. The 9.1-year cycle is shown to be likely related to a decadal Soli/Lunar tidal oscillation, while the 10-10.5, 20-21 and 60-62 year cycles are synchronous to solar and heliospheric planetary oscillations. We show that the IPCC GCM's claim that all warming observed from 1970 to 2000 has been anthropogenically induced is erroneous because of the GCM failure in reconstructing the quasi 20-year and 60-year climatic cycles. Finally, we show how the presence of these large natural cycles can be used to correct the IPCC projected anthropogenic warming trend for the 21st century. By combining this corrected trend with the natural cycles, we show that the temperature may not significantly increase during the next 30 years mostly because of the negative phase of the 60-year cycle. If multisecular natural cycles (which according to some authors have significantly contributed to the observed 1700-2010 warming and may contribute to an additional natural cooling by 2100) are ignored, the same IPCC projected anthropogenic emissions would imply a global warming by about 0.3-1.2 °C by 2100, contrary to the IPCC 1.0-3.6 °C projected warming. The results of this paper reinforce previous claims that the relevant physical mechanisms that explain the detected climatic cycles are still missing in the current GCMs and that climate variations at the multidecadal scales are astronomically induced and, in first approximation, can be forecast
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