49 research outputs found
Caspian oil in global context
No full textThis paper provides a brief overview of the political economy of Caspian oil. It begins by situating the Caspian region’s oil sectors in the larger global market, before proceeding to examine the ways in which the Azerbaijani, Turkmen and Kazakh oil sectors have been organised and governed since 1991. The paper then considers the likely consequences of recent policy shifts in Kazakhstan, the region’s most important oil producer. A further section considers the questions of transport infrastructure and export routes, which remain particularly complex problems for Central Asia’s landlocked producers. This is followed by a brief conclusion. The paper’s central argument is that it is by no means certain that the Caspian region’s hydrocarbon potential will be developed in a timely, economically efficient way
Microsoft Word - ss.229-242---Hakura _upr_- ZLOM 1.doc
No full textIntroduction Recent research has highlighted the adverse effect of high output volatility on economic growth, welfare, and poverty, particularly in developing countries 1 This underscores the importance of understanding the factors driving output volatility and the size of output drops, and the economic policies that could help reduce them. There are two strands of literature examining output volatility. The first strand is related to the literature on international business cycles and has focused on documenting stylized features of business cycles and their co-movement across countries. For example, Kose, Otrok, and Whiteman (2003) employ a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model to decompose output fluctuations into global, regional, and country-specific factors. Two key findings of this paper are, first, that there is a significant global component in individual countries' output fluctuations, and second, that country-* The paper has benefited from Chris Otrok's help in applying the Bayesian latent dynamic factor model. The author also thanks Tim Callen, Simon Johnson, Gene Leon, Sam Ouliaris, Raghuram Rajan, David Robinson, Miguel Savastano, and Marco Terrones for helpful comments and suggestions, and Stephanie Denis for research assistance. 1 It has been argued that economic crises resulting in output declines are not necessarily bad for long-run growth. Crises and recoveries, while intrinsically costly, can also facilitate resource reallocation from less to more efficient sectors and projects, à la Schumpeter, thereby possibly placing the economy on a higher--growth path. However
BOOK REVIEW: "The Singapore Economy: An Econometric Perspective" by Tilak Abeysinghe and Keen Meng Choy
No full textNo abstract received.
Dbank: Time Series Data Management System for Microsoft Windows
No full textDbank is a network-ready, tree-structured filing system for time-series and cross-sectional data that runs under Microsoft Windows, Windows 95, and Windows NT. Dbank is modeled after the Microsoft Windows' File Manager; however, its fundamental object is a "time series" rather than a file. In addition to providing numerous commands for managing, manipulating, viewing and plotting time-series and cross-sectional data in a user-friendly environment, Dbank exports data to many statistical packages and spreadsheet programs.
Technological Complexity and Economic Growth
No full textThe last fifty years have witnessed large secular increases in educational attainment and R&D intensity. The fact that these trends have not stimulated more rapid income growth has been a persistent puzzle for growth theorists. We construct a model of endogenous economic growth in which income growth, R&D intensity, and educational attainment depend on the complexity of new technologies. An increase in complexity that makes passive learning more difficult, induces increases in R&D and education, alongside a decline in income growth. Our explanation also predicts a concurrent rise in the skill premium.Endogenous growth, learning, R&D, educational attainment, wage inequality, technological complexity
U.S. Inflation Dynamics
No full textThis paper aims to improve the understanding of U.S. inflation dynamics by separating out structural from cyclical effects using frequency domain techniques. Most empirical studies of inflation dynamics do not distinguish between secular and cyclical movements, and we show that such a distinction is critical. In particular, we study traditional Phillips curve (TPC) and new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) models of inflation, and conclude that the long-run secular decline in inflation cannot be explained in terms of changes in external trade and global factor markets. These variables tend to impact inflation primarily over the business cycle. We infer that the secular decline in inflation may well reflect improved monetary policy credibility and, thus, maintaining low inflation in the long run is closely linked to anchored inflation expectations.Economic models;inflation, monetary policy, terms of trade, monetary economics, actual inflation, terms of trade shocks, inflation dynamics, gdp deflator, monetary fund, expectations of inflation, rational expectations, low inflation, money supply, inflation process, adaptive expectations, inflation data, wage inflation, real output, moderate inflation, inflationary pressures, inflationary expectations, relative price, inflation targeting, price level, inflation equation, monetary policy rules
