1,720,969 research outputs found
RETHINKING INDUSTRIAL POLICY
Full text linkDespite the hold of the neoliberal orthodoxy on policy making in developing countries, industrial policy remains important for the promotion of industrial development. However, the context for the design of industrial policy has profoundly changed as a result of new rules governing international trade, the rise of global value chains and marketing networks, and other aspects of globalization. Traditionally, the case for industrial policy has been framed in terms of “market failures” but the paper argues that that is not a sufficient basis. After addressing the traditional points of criticism, an attempt is made to outline the “domains” of industrial policy in the current circumstances, especially for industrially lagging countries. As country contexts differ widely there are no satisfactory blueprints for policy making that countries can readily adopt. As in production decisions, considerable ingenuity and innovation is needed in designing policies. This is all the more necessary as the WTO rules have become increasingly stringent and the rise of international trading networks has created new barriers for young firms to enter the world market. These developments have changed the context but not the importance of policy in industrial development. The paper identifies areas where government intervention is needed and can still make a positive difference.
A RE-EXAMINATION OF THE ARCHITECTURE OF THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC SYSTEM IN A GLOBAL SETTING: ISSUES AND PROPOSALS
Full text linkThe globalization of the world economy poses major challenges to the prevailing international economic system. The recent trade-investment system raises the issues of the marginalization of countries, firms, and agents if they are not capable to compete with large successful entities. The system engenders conflicts of interest in its interfacing with sovereign domains. In numerous cases such as employment and mutual trade benefits, it can produce zero sum outcomes. Consequently, significant segments of public opinion in many countries have mobilized against it. In the monetary and financial area, the system has from 1945 evolved on a piecemeal and ad hoc basis. In recent years, it has not been able to predict, prevent or effectively deal with financial crisis. It demonstrates a lacuna in global financial governance especially with respect to enforcing its rules on the major countries and bringing the private sector therein. The central institution, the IMF, is shown to be in need of basic reforms involving forging a global vision, reconsidering and updating conditionality, further democratization of political governance, and revamping the exchange rates and surveillance functions.
AN OVERVIEW OF MAJOR SOURCES OF DATA AND ANALYSES RELATING TO PHYSICAL FUNDAMENTALS IN INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY MARKETS
Full text linkThe debate on whether price movements in commodity markets are determined by changes in physical supply and demand fundamentals or by the speculative effects of financial investors seems to find some element of agreement on one particular point: the need for increased transparency and improved information on futures markets and physical commodity markets. This discussion paper provides an assessment of the current situation with regard to availability of information on physical commodity markets, pointing to some of the existing information gaps and areas for improvement. The paper presents a comprehensive account of the different information sources for physical commodity markets (including their websites), and could therefore be considered a practical information tool in itself, of use to different stakeholders interested in knowing about developments in these markets.
POLICY SPACE: WHAT, FOR WHAT, AND WHERE?
Full text linkThe paper examines how developing countries can use existing policy space, and enlarge it, without opting out of international commitments. It argues that: (i) a meaningful context for policy space must extend beyond trade policy and include macroeconomic and exchange-rate policies that will achieve developmental goals more effectively; (ii) policy space depends not only on international rules but also on the impact of international market conditions and policy decisions taken in other countries on the effectiveness of national policy instruments; and (iii) international integration affects policy space through several factors that pull in opposite directions; whether it increases or reduces policy space differs by country and type of integration.
THE EMERGING OF A MULTILATERAL FORUM FOR DEBT RESTRUCTURING: THE PARIS CLUB
Full text linkThis paper describes the evolution of intergovernmental relationships on debt rescheduling. It starts describing some experiences that aroused in the 18th Century and which negotiations were carried out, in many occasions, with the help of gunboat diplomacy. The settlement of liabilities that were created at the aftermath of the two 20th Century World Wars, which were – at least for some countries –- not exactly debt but war reparations, gave some insights in how to deal with these problems allowing the debtor country to find its own path to get out of the debt overhang. The settlement of these foreign liabilities may give some guidelines for dealing with debt restructuring in more general cases The creation of the Paris Club – which is a very civilized way to settle debt defaults compared to gunboat diplomacy – is analyzed and described here: first its emergency as an ad hoc transitory institution and later its evolution toward its definitive establishment in the international financial system landscape. It is also suggested that for a combination of events, which included the launch in Evian of the G-8’s so-called Evian Approach for the Paris Club, as well as the lack of support of some major industrialized countries to the implementation of a Sovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism (SDRM), the Paris Club has become the only feasible international intergovernmental debt restructuring mechanism in spite of numerous shortcomings embodied in it. On this basis, some improvements of the actual mechanism are proposed, without precluding the possibility of the implementation of a more equilibrated SDRM in the future.
SHARE OF LABOUR COMPENSATION AND AGGREGATE DEMAND – DISCUSSIONS TOWARDS A GROWTH STRATEGY
Full text linkEconomic growth strategies of developing countries have focused in the last decades on expanding their exports. In that scheme, wage compression seems necessary in order to compensate the observed slow productivity pace achieving, therefore, “competitiveness”. The core of this discussion is, undoubtedly, how the national product is appropriated through wages and surplus, i.e. the factorial income distribution. From that viewpoint, this paper discusses the long-term impoverishment of Argentinean workers through two key aspects of the economic process: on one hand, the way in which labour force is allocated, by analysing the relationship between real wage and productivity. On the other, how income is used in the acquisition of consumer goods and capital formation. In order to fully comprehend those trends, this paper recourses to an international comparison with two types of countries: the developed ones (United States of America, France and Japan) and the largest Latin American economies (Brazil and Mexico). As these processes take place in the long run, this paper’s analysis period will start from the 1950s.
THE CONCEPT OF ODIOUS DEBT IN PUBLIC INTERNATIONAL LAW
Full text linkThe concept of “odious debt” regroups a set of equitable considerations that have often been raised in the context of political transitions. This paper explores the grounds of the “odious debt” concept in international law and points out that obligation to repay debt has never been accepted as absolute, and has been frequently qualified by a range of equitable considerations, some of which may be regrouped under the concept of “odiousness.” Due to the complexity and variety of transitional contexts, there is no single legal forum for the adjudication or settlement of claims of odiousness. Depending on context, such claims might appropriately be raised in bilateral or multilateral negotiations, or they could be adjudicated in domestic litigation. However, invocation of the concept of odious debt in multiple forums risks inconsistent decisions. Thus, the examination of considerations of odiousness by a single special transitional tribunal may be an attractive solution.
CENTRAL BANKING, FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AND CREDIT CREATION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
Full text linkThis paper examines how developing countries can embark on a sustained path of strong investment, capital accumulation and economic growth without capital imports. It is argued that the key lies in the Keynesian-Schumpeterian credit-investment nexus: Given certain preconditions, the central bank can allow a credit expansion which finances new investment and creates the savings necessary to balance the national accounts. It is further argued and confirmed in empirical data that one of the biggest impediments to such a process is formal or informal dollarization which limits the policy scope of the central bank. Moreover, a stable banking system with a broad outreach as well as a low degree of pass-through between the exchange rate and domestic prices seem to be a necessary condition for this process to work
THE SCOPE FOR FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET INTERVENTIONS
Full text linkThe discussion on exchange rate policy is dominated by the so-called “impossible trinity”. According to this principle an autonomous monetary policy, a control over the exchange rate and free capital movements cannot be achieved simultaneously. In this paper, a strategy of managed floating is developed that allows transforming the “impossible trinity” into a “possible trinity”. If a central bank targets an exchange rate path which is determined by uncovered interest parity (UIP), it can at the same time set its policy rate autonomously. As a UIP path removes the incentives for carry-trade, it is also compatible with capital mobility. The approach can be used unilaterally to prevent carry trade as a central bank can always prevent an appreciation of its currency. But it can also be applied bilaterally or multilaterally. Successful examples are the European Monetary System and the exchange rate policy of Slovenia before its EMU membership.
SOME REFLECTIONS ON CLIMATE CHANGE, GREEN GROWTH ILLUSIONS AND DEVELOPMENT SPACE
Full text linkMany economists and policy makers advocate a fundamental shift towards “green growth” as the new, qualitatively-different growth paradigm, based on enhanced material/resource/energy efficiency and drastic changes in the energy mix. “Green growth” may work well in creating new growth impulses with reduced environmental load and facilitating related technological and structural change. But can it also mitigate climate change at the required scale (i.e. significant, absolute and permanent decline of GHG emissions at global level) and pace? This paper argues that growth, technological, population-expansion and governance constraints as well as some key systemic issues cast a very long shadow on the “green growth” hopes. One should not deceive oneself into believing that such evolutionary (and often reductionist) approach will be sufficient to cope with the complexities of climate change. It may rather give much false hope and excuses to do nothing really fundamental that can bring about a U-turn of global GHG emissions. The proponents of a resource efficiency revolution and a drastic change in the energy mix need to scrutinize the historical evidence, in particular the arithmetic of economic and population growth. Furthermore, they need to realize that the required transformation goes beyond innovation and structural changes to include democratization of the economy and cultural change. Climate change calls into question the global equality of opportunity for prosperity (i.e. ecological justice and development space) and is thus a huge developmental challenge for the South and a question of life and death for some developing countries (who increasingly resist the framing of climate protection versus equity).
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