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    Pengujian Kondisi Marshall-Lerner dan Fenomena J-curve Pada Neraca Perdagangan Indonesia dengan 5 Negara Mitra Dagang Utama

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    Salah satu konsep teori yang membahas mengenai hubungan antara nilai tukar dengan keseimbangan pada neraca transaksi berjalan adalah konsep Marshall-Lerner. Konsep Marshall-Lerner menekankan pada suatu kondisi dimana neraca transaksi berjalan atau neraca perdagangan hanya akan meningkat saat nilai tukar terdepresiasi bila persayaratan kondisi Marshall-Lerner terpenuhi, yaitu apabila jumlah elastisitas ekspor dan elastisitas impor terhadap nilai tukar lebih besar dari satu. Depresiasi nilai tukar terhadap neraca transaksi berjalan juga akan memunculkan suatu fenomena yang dinamakan dengan kurva-J. Kurva-J bermakna bahwa depresiasi mata uang pada awalnya akan menyebabkan defisit pada neraca transaksi berjalan tetapi kemudian seiring berjalannya waktu neraca perdagangan tersebut akan melakukan penyesuian melalui mekanisme peningkatan daya saing ekspor sehingga defisit dalam perdagangan akan semakin berkurang. Tujuan utama dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui pemenuhan kondisi Marshall-Lerner dan eksistensi fenomena kurva-J pada keseimbangan neraca perdagangan Indononesia dengan lima negara mitra dagang utama yang terdiri dari China, Jepang, Singapura, Amerika Serikat, dan Korea Selatan, secara bilateral pada periode 1994q1 hingga 2016q4. Metode analisis yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah VECM. Hasil dari penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kondisi Marshall-Lerner terpenuhi baik dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang dalam kasus perdagangan Indonesia dengan Jepang dan Amerika Serikat. Sedangkan dalam kasus perdagangan Indonesia dengan China, Singapura, dan Korea Selatan kondisi Marshall-Lerner hanya terpenuhi dalam jangka panjang. Sedangkan fenomena kurva- J hanya ditemukan dalam kasus perdagangan Indonesia dengan China dan Korea Selatan dengan pola yang lemah ditemukan pada kasus Indonesia dengan Jepang. Dalam kasus perdagangan Indonesia dengan Singapura dan Amerika Serikat tidak ditemukan bukti adanya keberadaan kurva-J

    TASAWUF DAN PSIKOLOGI : Tinjauan Psikologi Kesehatan Mental Terhadap Konsep Maqâm dan Hâl dalam Tasawuf Ibn ‘Arabi

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    Buku yang berjudul: “Tasawuf dan Psikologi : Tinjauan Psikologis Kesehatan Mental dan Maqâm dan Hâl dalam Tasawuf Ibn ‘Arabi ini mengkaji tentang konsep maqâm dan hâl dalam tasawuf Ibn ‘Arabi dalam melahirkan kepribadian dan mental yang sehat sesuai dengan tinjauan psikologis dan prinsip-prinsip kesehatan mental. Ide penulisan buku ini dilatarbelakangi oleh perjalanan sejarah tasawuf yang panjang, dan tidak luput dari kecurigaan dan kecaman dari golongan Islam ortodoks. Tasawuf dituduh sebagai pengalaman keagamaan yang zindik, bid’ah bahkan secara ektsrim dianggap sebagai pengalaman seseorang yang mengidap sakit jiwa. Faktor utama penyebab munculnya tuduhan tersebut karena pengalaman tasawuf merupakan pengalaman individu yang sulit dikomunikasikan. Dengan demikian tidak berdasarkan pada proses dan pengaruhnya secara kejiwaan. Konstruksi tasawuf yang lebih berorientasi pada peningkatan kepribadian dan mental sangat dibutuhkan untuk menjawab tuduhan di atas. Ibn ‘Arabi sebagai sufi besar, dalam konstelasi tasawufnya tidak hanya berbicara tentang persoalan metafisik, tapi juga konsern dalam peningkatan kepribadian dan mental yang sehat. Melalui ajaran maqâm dan hâl, sufi Andalusia ini berpendapat bahwa peningkatan penghayatan dan pengalaman dalam tasawuf berbanding lurus dengan peningkatan kepribadian dan mental yang sehat. Adapun kesimpulan buku ini, pertama, maqâm merupakan tingkatan spiritual yang dijalani oleh sufi, sedangkah hâl adalah kondisi kejiwaan tertentu sebagai hasil dari menjalani proses maqâm. Kedua, dimensi psikologis dalam maqâm dan hâl merupakan pengalaman dan kesadaran batin yang dialami seorang sufi ketika sampai pada tingkatan tertentu dalam tingkat-tingkat tersebut. Ketiga, Sedangkan dari sudut kesehatan mental, maqâm dan hâl merupakan terapi yang memuat prinsip-prinsip pengembangan kepribadian dan mental yang sehat

    Strategi Bimbingan Tokoh Agama di Bangka Belitung: Kontestasi dalam Masyarakat Pedesaan

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    This discourse aims to describe the strategy of Guru Zuhri and Ustaz Fathur Rozi in providing Islamic guidance to the people of Kayu Besi Village, Puding Besar District, Bangka Regency, Bangka Belitung Islands, examining the contestation that the two have done to gain community legitimacy, and analyzing the extent of the contestation of the two figures. religion in Bangka Belitung. This research uses qualitative research with a field research approach. As for data collection techniques, the authors used in-depth interviews, participatory observation and documentation. The results showed that in providing Islamic guidance to the community, Guru Zuhri did not just provide religious advice. However, he also provides assistance to various problems faced by members of the guidance and village community, both personal, family, social, and especially religious issues. Meanwhile, the provision of Islamic guidance carried out by Ustaz Fathur Rozi was only limited to giving religious advice or it could be said by recitation. Guidance is given not to touch aspects of community life. In the sense that it does not solve problems for problems that develop in life, either individuals or groups of people. In addition, in providing Islamic guidance to rural communities, the two of them both contest each other to gain community legitimacy. The contestation is real. There are three forms of contestation that occur in both of them, namely: First, the contestation of wisdom. Second, power contestation. Third, ideological contestation. At the end of the contestation story, Guru Zuhri got more and more legitimacy from the community for his character. Meanwhile, Ustaz Fathur Rozi lost legitimacy from the community, so he tried again to build that legitimacy

    Tambahan Rozi

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    PEMBERONTAKAN SELEKA DI REPUBLIK AFRIKA TENGAH

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    The conflict that happened in the Central African Republic was the expansion of similar conflicts in the surrounding countries or known as Domino Effect. The roots of the conflict in the Central African Republic has been happening since the country gained independence. A series of coups and political violence which often occur in this country are similar to those experienced by other countries at the surrounding of Central African Republic which are also in the line of poverty and political instability. This condition occurs because the role of government is not optimal. The authoritarian political system of Francois Bozize regime and corruption within government structure have promptted the resistance from rebel groups including Democratiques Union des Forces pour le Rassemblement (UFDR), The Convention of Patriots for Justice and Peace (CPJP), and The Peoples' Army for the Restoration of the Republic and of Democracy (APRD) and Movement of Central African Liberators for Justice (MLJC). Bozize regime then responded to the resistance by deploying military arms of The Central African Republic. This war ended with peace after rebels and the government approved an agreement. However, the government factually was not committed to the agreement, and the rebels were satisfied and then formed a new opposition group of coalition of previous resistance groups named Seleka. The conflict between the government of The Central African Republic and the rebel group Seleka was caused by two interrelated factors. These factors were structural factors and internal factors. The findings indicate that the background of Séléka uprising was poor domestic problems, the weak condition of the country, and the occurrence of discriminatio

    Tambahan Rozi

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    Understanding Agarwood Formation and Its Challenges

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    The resinous portion of the Aquilaria tree is called agarwood, a valuable non-timber product being used as medicine and incenses in Asia, Middle East, and Europe. Driven by high demand, the wild resources of agarwood-producing trees have been greatly threatened. This fragrant product contains many aromatic substances and is obtained from the pathological conditions of the wood of living trees. The knowledge regarding the technology for inducing agarwood and its continuous formation in the tree is still limited. To conserve the wild Aquilaria spp. and to supply sustainable amount of agarwood, cultivation of Aquilaria trees in combination with induction through artificial technique is seen as the best approach. In this chapter we will discuss the fundamentals of agarwood formation in the producing trees, the molecular pathway in its synthesis, current methods applied for agarwood induction in cultivated trees, and finally the factors influencing agarwood yield and quality

    Rozi Sayit's poetries (Analysis-text-translation)

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    Çağdaş Uygur edebiyatının önemli şairlerinden Rozi Sayit'in manzum eserleri, onun bizzat yaşadığı siyasi ve sosyal değişimlerle dolu geçmişine bağlı olarak, inişli ve çıkışlı hayatından biriktirdiği ve olgunlaştırdığı hayat derslerinin ve ilhamının meyvesi olması bakımından önemlidir. Sayit, halkçı, hak sözlü ve yürekli bir sosyal şairi olarak, komünist sistemdeki baskıcı düzeni ve istila altındaki toplumu gerçekçi bir şekilde gözlemlemiştir. Mevcut sorunları eserlerinde ana hatlarıyla ele almış, değerlendirmiş ve yorumlamıştır. Bu çalışmada, Sayit'in hayatı ve manzum eserleri üzerinde inceleme yapılmıştır. Giriş bölümünde, Doğu Türkistan'ın Çin istilasından bugüne kadar olan yakın zaman siyasî ve sosyal tarihi, farklı dönüm noktalarına göre dört küçük bölümde anlatılmış ve gerekli analizler yapılmıştır. Sonra, elde edilen birinci el kaynaklar ve diğer ilgili makale ve hatıralar esasında Sayit'in edebî hayatı ve eserleri hakkında malumatlar derlenmiş ve yorumlanmıştır. Birinci bölümde, Sayit'in manzum eserleri şekil, muhteva ve dil üslup bakımından örnekleriyle detaylıca incelenmiştir. İnceleme için Sayit'in vefatına yakın neşredilen "Rozi Sayit Şéirliridin(1)(2)" adlı iki ciltli şiirler toplamındaki bütün eserler esas alınmıştır. İkinci bölümde, Sayit'in Türkçeye aktarılan seçilmiş şiirleri, orijinal metin ve çevirisi şeklinde verilmiştir.The poetic works of Rozi Sayit, who is one of the prominent poets of Modern Uygur Literature, are significant such that they are the fruits of his mature and inspired lessons culminated during a roller-coaster life full of political and social upheavals. Sayit, being a democrat, sincere and courageous social poet, has observed realistically the oppressive organization of the communist system as well as the invaded society. He has outlined the current problems, evaluated and interpreted them in his works. In this dissertation, life and poetic works of Sayit are studied. In Chapter One, political and social near history of Eastern Turkestan since the Chinese invasion, are discussed and analyzed in four short sections according to different inflection points. In Chapter Two, using primary resources, articles, and memoirs, information regarding Sayit's literary life and works are compiled and interpreted. In Chapter Three, a detailed analysis is conducted on Sayit's exemplified poems with regards to form, content and language expression/style/genre. This analysis is based on the two volume collection of poetry titled as "Rozi Sayit Şéirliridin (1)(2)", which was published near his death. In the Final Chapter, selected Turkish translations of Sayit's poems are presented together with their original texts

    The origin and domestication of Aquilaria, an important agarwood-producing genus

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    The Aquilaria (Thymelaeaceae) tree is a well-known important agarwood-producing genus, which is endemic to the Indomalesia region. The genus is currently protected under CITES regulation and the IUCN Red List due to its heavy declination in the natural population in various sourcing countries. Derived from its precious non-wood fragrant products, the genus was given different names throughout the history until it was finalized in 1783. To date, there are 21 recognized Aquilaria species recorded, of which 13 are reportedly fragrant resin producers, and the status of the remaining eight Aquilaria species is yet to be investigated. Aquilaria is heavily exploited in the wild due to the destructive agarwood harvesting technique that requires hacking of the wood parts to induce agarwood production. Various conservation efforts have been carried out to avoid further destruction toward its gene pool. This includes introducing the species for cultivation and planting the trees in large plantations or home gardens, which further provide a sustainable agarwood production in the industry and indirectly contribute to the local economy. At present, an accurate classification of Aquilaria species is yet to be achieved; misidentification happens frequently, either genuinely because of lack of information and training or intentionally for business gains. In conclusion, a proper taxonomy and classification system are essential for conserving Aquilaria species genetic diversity and for identifying species origin of agarwood products aimed at international trade control

    Keeping Up Appearances: Agarwood Grades and Quality

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    Agarwood has many grades and goes by countless different names in both the sourcing and consuming countries. The different grades and classes of agarwood result from long-standing grading practices adopted by the people of each country. No standard method is available partly due to the intricacy during the hierarchical process of selling and buying. The foremost reason is the appearance of the traded agarwood itself, which can come in many forms from raw, such as chips, blocks, and flakes, to finished products such as oil, incenses, perfumes, accessories, and carvings. Agarwood in raw forms is of mixed quality; thus, the price and grade depend on this blended appearance. As the product is passed down from collectors to various levels of traders and finally to the buyers, the grade can be readjusted and the price inflated or understated depending on the interest. Therefore, buyers, traders, and collectors heavily rely upon time-honored trust when concluding a business deal. Authorities have not found the formula to standardize the grading system of agarwood trade, and this leads to the lack of coordination and regulation at international level. Nevertheless, several sourcing and consuming countries have made the effort to grade their agarwood according to their own local market, which can be used as a benchmark in formulating a more contemporary method that could be acceptable to all countries
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