402 research outputs found
Flattening of the Phillips curve and the role of the oil price: An unobserved component model for the USA and Australia
Get PDFWe used the unobserved component model of. Harvey (1989, 2011) to estimate the Phillips curve for the USA and Australia, augmenting it with the oil price. Our results show that while the coefficient of demand pressure and the intercept decreased, the coefficient of the oil price increased. Therefore, the oil price is likely to play a significant role in future inflation rates. © 2012 Elsevier B.V
The level and growth effects of human capital in India
No full textIn the extended Solow growth model of Mankiw et al. (1992), human capital has only permanent level and no growth effects. In the endogenous growth models human capital is a growth-improving variable. Human capital may have both a permanent level and a permanent growth effect, we show how both can be estimated with an extension to the Solow model
How to offset the negative trend growth rate in the Italian economy?
Get PDFThe trend growth rate of the Italian economy has been declining since the 1980s. To examine how to offset this trend, we estimate a simple specification of an endogenous growth model. Cointegrating equations for the long-run output growth and its determinants are estimated with alternative time series methods. Our results imply that policies to double trade openness are necessary.
The level and growth effects in the empirics of economic growth: some results with data from Guatemala
No full textMankiw et al. (1992) have extended the Solow (1956) model by augmenting the production function with human capital. Its empirical success is impressive and it showed a procedure to improve the explanatory power of the neoclassical growth model. This article suggests an empirical procedure to further extend the neoclassical growth model to distinguish between the growth and level effects of shift variables like the human capital. We use time-series data from Guatemala to show that while the growth effects of education are small, they are significant and dominate the level effects.
Globalization and growth in the low Income African countries with the extreme bounds analysis
Get PDFThe relationship between globalization and economic growth, especially in the poorer developing countries, is controversial. Many previous studies have used single globalization indicators such as the ratio of exports plus imports to GDP. This paper uses a comprehensive measure of a globalization of Dreher (2006), which is based on measures of globalization of the economic, social and political sectors. Panel data estimates with data of 21 low income African countries show a small but significant positive permanent growth effects. The sensitivity of this growth effect is examined with the extreme bounds analysis (EBA). Contrary to the findings by Levine and Renelt (1992) that cross country growth relationships are fragile, the effects of globalization and some other determinants of the long run growth rate are found to be robust by EBA
Estimates of the steady state growth rates for some European countries
Get PDFThis paper estimates the steady state growth rates for the main European countries with an extended version of the Solow (1956) growth model. Total factor productivity is assumed a function of human capital, trade openness and investment ratio. We show that these factors, with some differences, have played an important role to improve the long run growth rates of Italy, Spain, France, UK, and Ireland. A few policies to improve the long-run growth rates for these countries are suggested. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.
The dynamics of Italian public debt: Alternative paths for fiscal consolidation
Get PDFThis paper analyses possible targets for the Italian debt-to-GDP ratio with a small macroeconomic model. The role of international macroeconomic variables such as the US GDP growth, prices of raw materials, EUR/USD exchange rate, and ECB monetary policy stance and domestic policy instruments is analyzed in the debt dynamics. We find that external conditions play a fundamental role for the Italian fiscal consolidation. To reach a target of 100% of debt-to-GDP ratio by 2020, a further growth sustaining policy has to be implemented
A New Keynesian IS curve for Australia: is it forward looking or backward looking?
Get PDFThis article estimates the forward looking, backward looking and an extended version of the New Keynesian IS curve for Australia. The validity of these models is investigated by imposing the constraint on real rate of interest as well as when the constraint is relaxed. Two measures of output gap, namely GAP1 (constructed using the unobserved components approach) and GAP2 (constructed using a quadratic trend) are utilized. Our results suggest that the baseline backward looking and forward looking models are overwhelmingly rejected by the data. This evidence strongly supports the extended backward looking model (with GAP2) being relevant for monetary policy analysis. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC
US inflation and consumption: A long-term perspective with a level shift
Get PDFThis article examines the existence and stability of the consumption function in the United States of America (US) beginning in the 1950s. In order to obtain a stable long run relationship, we have introduced two innovative elements into the analysis of the life-cycle of the consumption function with wealth effects: 1) a shift level break in the cointegrating relationship, and 2) using inflation as an additional explanatory variable. By implementing a well structured estimation strategy, we found that after taking the level shift into account, a cointegrating equation, including inflation, exists and is more stable for the critical sub-samples than traditional consumption function models. © 2012 Elsevier B.V
The growth effects of education in Australia
Get PDFIn this article, we estimate the growth effect of human capital with country-specific time series data for Australia. In doing so, we extended the Solow (1956) growth model by using educational attainment as a measure of human capital developed by Barro and Lee (2010). The extended Solow (1956) model performs well after allowing for the presence of structural changes. Our results, based on alternative time series methods, show that educational attainment has a small and significant permanent effect on the growth rate of per worker output in Australia
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