1,262 research outputs found
Moneyball and decision-making heuristics
No full textThe book and movie Moneyball makes the case that baseball statistics are a better heuristic than the traditional instinct of professional scouts and managers in determining which players to draft and where to position them in a team. On the other hand, in the film Trouble with the Curve, we get another perspective where it is the experience of an ageing scout whose wisdom (accumulated human capital) generates superior results to that produced by young university diploma stats gurus. We argue that both these heuristics advantage decision-making in sports teams. Statistical analysis represents additional time savings in the process of player engagement and positioning. The important role statistics and statistical software and hardware can play in decision-making is not new. It was long ago emphasized by Herbert Simon as he argued that in the real world of bounded rationality the brain is a scarce computational resource and these new technologies are valuable. But he also makes the point that the context within which these decisions are made is critically important. Using the Moneyball narrative, we make the case that when used together, statistics and nuanced experience generate optimal or best possible outcomes for sports teams in terms of success on the field. This conclusion sits well with Kahneman’s recent arguments on the importance of both slow and fast thinking (different types of heuristics) and of Gigerenzer’s fast and frugal heuristics to the decision-making process. We argue that integrating both approaches serves to improve our understanding of how better decisions can be made in general and within the realm of sports specifically
Sports performance, procedural rationality, and organizational inefficiency
No full textThe conventional economic model presumes that efficient outcomes prevail but this prediction is not consistent with the preponderance of evidence. In this chapter, we model how the persistence of inefficiency in sports performance is possible and can even be welfare enhancing in the realm of professional sports and we explain why market forces can’t easily correct this inefficiency. We build on x-efficiency theory, information complexity (related to bounded rationality), outcome uncertainty, and the notion that decision-makers (team owners in this case) are not simply guided by profit maximization or by the desire to maximize their level of material wellbeing. We argue that different organizational forms and different understandings or mental models of what makes for excellence in sports performance significantly affect sports outcomes. The latter is critically important as is the fact that inefficient sports organizations can be protected from market forces. Often decision-makers are characterized by ‘managerial slack,’ information gaps, and various decision-making ‘biases’ that yield sub-optimal outcomes from the perspective of sports performance. These inefficient outcomes can be a product of errors in decision-making, but they can also be consistent with the preferences of a cohort of decision-makers. It is important to model the fact that sports team ownership is not all about maximizing material gain or profit. Owners can maximize their utility simply by owning a team, even if it is x-inefficient. To be profitable in sports team ownership does not imply being x-efficient, especially when profitability depends on the popularity of a sports team. Losers can be extremely popular if they are an integral part of their community and generate significant demand for their product
Beauty, preferences and choice exemplified in the sports market
No full textBeauty has been used as a fast and frugal heuristic, and therefore an important determinant of choice, as highlighted in research by Hamermesh. In a world of asymmetric information, beauty represents a proxy for objective characteristics or an object of desire, according to an individual’s preferences. A correlate of beauty, sexiness, has been used in sports to choose trainers or even to select the athletes expected to perform best, with people paying a premium for this beauty or sexiness. We argue that beauty can be a good or bad heuristic depending on the objective relationship between beauty and what it proxies. When it is a bad heuristic, it generates sub-optimal outcomes for sports organizations. We discuss the conditions under which the beauty or sexiness heuristic generates sub-optimal outcomes, why rational agents choose such a heuristic, and the conditions under which bad heuristics are sustainable. We also discuss this heuristic and the beauty premium in the context of Becker’s economic theory of discrimination, wherein rational decision-makers trade off material considerations for the utility gained by contracting beautiful and sexy individuals. The latter has implications for the economic sustainability of an organization
Reforming the Native Title Act
Get PDFIn this Topical Issue, Jon Altman seeks to explore the ramifications of the Native Title Act Reform Bill, a private senator's bill introduced by Senator Rachel Siewert of the Australian Greens
Obesity, Wellbeing, Freedom of Choice, and Institutional Change
No full textBuilding on Tomer’s insights on the determinants of unhealthy eating and obesity, we extend the important price-based model of “rational” consumer choice with healthy living determinants such as food and exercise. We argue that variables such as the quality of information, information literacy, access to healthy foods, and safe and affordable space for exercise, the quality of exercise provision are key determinants of healthy living and, therefore, of the extent to which individuals are obese or overweight. Empirically, critical to reducing the extent of obesity to reducing consumption and/or adequate physical activity. We argue, contrary to Tomer, that as opposed to nudging consumers into behaving in particular a fashion to reduce obesity, it is best to improve individuals’ decision-making environments and capabilities
Bounded rationality, imperfect and costly information and sub-optimal outcomes in the sports and health and fitness industries
No full textWe exemplify behavioural economics methodological approaches to decision-making and policy using the example of the health and fitness industry, choices made that affect the level of obesity, and athletes’, trainers’ and coaches’ choices with regard to realising targeted levels of performance. We go beyond a discourse on price and income and beyond a focus on systemic cognitive-based errors in decision-making. It is critically important to take into consideration individuals’ decision-making capabilities and the decision-making environment, which has critical social and institutional determinants, to better understand why sub-optimal choices are made by rational agents and the conditions under which better choices can be achieved
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No Apparent Reason
No full textThis paper discusses five works the author created and the thought process that went into the creation of these works. Helen Altman discusses the fascination with temporary or process pieces and the use of commonplace materials to depict a message
Evaluation of bacterial presence on lead X-ray aprons utilised in the operating room via IBIS and standard culture methods
No full textBackground: Despite precautions, surgical procedures carry risk of infection. Radiation-protective lead aprons worn by operating personnel are a potential source of bacterial contamination and have not been fully evaluated. Aim/objective: To evaluate lead aprons as a source of bacterial contamination, identify organisms most commonly found on this source, and devise a method with which to lower the risk of contamination. Methods: In this basic science study, 20 randomly selected lead X-ray aprons were swabbed at three time points. The experimental treatment was with a hospital-grade disinfectant wipe. The samples were assessed for bacterial growth via traditional plating methods and mass spectrometry. Plates were graded on a scale of 0 to 4+ based on the number of quadrants with growth. Growth on one quadrant or more was considered contaminated. Findings/results: Bacteria were initially detected via IBIS on a majority of the aprons (32/40), most commonly Staphylococcus epidermidis and Propionibacterium acnes. Virulent organisms cultured were Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus epidermidis (MRSE), Neisseria, Streptococcus viridans and pseudomonas. MRSE were detected on 5/20 of the samples. Immediately after treatment, the majority of aprons showed less bacterial contamination (0/20 standard culture positive; 13/20 IBIS positive) with some recurrence at the 6-h time point (2/20 standard culture positive, 16/20 IBIS positive). All MRSE detected initially was eradicated. Discussion: Lead X-ray aprons worn in the operating room harbour bacteria. Disinfecting before use may prevent the introduction of virulent organisms to patients. Our proposed method of sanitising with a disinfectant wipe is quick and effective.</p
The world of Robert Altman : Auteur, Innovator and Iconoclast
No full textFilmmaker Ron Mann’s recent documentary Altman (2014), features interviews with various notable filmmakers and actors who worked with Robert Altman over the years. Mann said that people who come to see his documentary “just to see Bob’s films” then he has done his job. Mann also more poignantly said that
“Altman was America’s greatest filmmaker and that his work matters more than ever now because it stands in contrast to all the sequels that Hollywood makes to sell lunch boxes”. (Gilbey, 2015)1
This quote encapsulates what Robert Altman stood for as a film director in that it illustrates his innovative approaches to filmmaking, his maverick tendencies and individuality. His vision, creativity and independence are a testament to his influential legacy which continues to inspire film makers today. Author keywords: Altman, film noir, satire, anti-western, ensemble, mystery, Hollywood and Studio Syste
Posthumous Queer: Hemingway Among Others
No full textChallenges the common assumption that posthumous texts introducing unconventional sexual themes like The Garden of Eden have more authority than previously published works by the same author. Altman concludes that it is a mistake to use the novel’s manuscript to debunk earlier Hemingway scholarship regarding gender and sexuality
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