1,721,081 research outputs found
The DECIDE Project: The impact of DEmographic Changes on Infectious DisEases transmission and control in middle/low income countries.
No full textFirst International Meeting of International Biometric Society (IBS) Uganda: "Modeling Infectious Diseases in Uganda and Africa: Current Status and Future Challenges", Kampala, Uganda, September 2-4, 2013 [oral presentation
The influence of uncoordinated human response on the spread of the 2009 pandemic influenza in Italy
No full text
The introduction of 'No jab, No school' policy and the refinement of measles immunisation strategies in high-income countries
Full text linkWe simulated the evolution of measles immunity profiles in seven distinct countries for the period 2018-2050 and evaluated the effect of possible adjustments of immunisation strategies adopted in the past on the overall fraction and age distribution of susceptible individuals in different high-income demographic settings. The proposed model accounts for country-specific demographic components, current immunity gaps and immunisation activities in 2018. Vaccination strategies considered include the enhancement of coverage for routine programmes already in place and the introduction of a compulsory vaccination at primary school entry in countries where universal school enrolment is likely achieved
The Impact of Current Demographic Trends on the Dynamics and Control of Vaccine Preventable Childhood Infection.
No full textBIOLOGICAL COMPLEXITY: PAST COMMITMENTS AND FUTURE CHALLENGES, Arcidosso, Italy September 19-21 2013 [oral presentation
Strong impact of demographic changes on Varicella and Herpes Zoster
No full textEpidemics 4 - Fourth International Conference on Infectious Disease Dynamics , Amsterdam, The Netherlands, November 19-22, 2013 [Poster
Risk perception and effectiveness of uncoordinated behavioral responses in an emerging epidemic
No full textBeyond control measures imposed by public authorities, human behavioral changes can be triggered by uncoordinated responses driven by the risk perception of an emerging epidemic. In order to account for spontaneous social distancing, a model based on an evolutionary game theory framework is here proposed. Behavioral changes are modeled through an imitation process in which the convenience of different behaviors depends on the perceived prevalence of infections. Effects of misperception of risk induced by partial or incorrect information concerning the state of the epidemic are considered as well. Our findings highlight that, if the perceived risk associated to an epidemic is sufficiently large, then even a small reduction in the number of potentially infectious contacts (as a response to the epidemic) can remarkably affect the infection spread. In particular, the earlier the warning about the epidemic appears, the larger the possible reduction of the peak prevalence, and of the final epidemic size. Moreover, the epidemic spread is delayed if individuals’ perception of risk is based on a memory mechanism and the risk of infection is initially overestimated. In conclusion, this analysis allows noteworthy inferences about the role of risk perception and the effectiveness of spontaneous behavioral changes during an emerging epidemic
The impact of DEmographic Changes on Infectious DisEases transmission and control in middle/low income countries (The DECIDE Project).
No full textAlpine Population Conference (AlpPop) 2013, La Thuile (AO), Italy, January 13-16, 2013 [poster
The introduction of 'No jab, No school' policy and the refinement of measles immunisation strategies in high-income countries
No full textBackground: In recent years, we witnessed a resurgence of measles even in countries where, according to WHO guidelines, elimination should have already been achieved. In high-income countries, the raise of anti-vaccination movements and parental vaccine hesitancy are posing major challenges for the achievement and maintenance of high coverage during routine programmes. Italy and France approved new regulations, respectively in 2017 and 2018, aimed at raising immunisation rates among children by introducing mandatory vaccination at school entry.Methods: We simulated the evolution of measles immunity profiles in seven distinct countries for the period 2018–2050 and evaluated the effect of possible adjustments of immunisation strategies adopted in the past on the overall fraction and age distribution of susceptible individuals in different high-income demographic settings. The proposed model accounts for country-specific demographic components, current immunity gaps and immunisation activities in 2018. Vaccination strategies considered include the enhancement of coverage for routine programmes already in place and the introduction of a compulsory vaccination at primary school entry in countries where universal school enrolment is likely achieved.Results: Our model shows that, under current vaccination policies, the susceptible fraction of the population would remain below measles elimination threshold only in Singapore and South Korea. In the UK, Ireland, the USA and Australia either the increase of coverage of routine programmes above 95% or the introduction of a compulsory vaccination at school entry with coverage above 40% are needed to maintain susceptible individuals below 7.5% up to 2050. Although the implementation of mandatory vaccination at school entry would be surely beneficial in Italy, strategies targeting adults would also be required to avoid future outbreaks in this country.Conclusions: Current vaccination policies are not sufficient to achieve and maintain measles elimination in most countries. Strategies targeting unvaccinated children before they enter primary school can remarkably enhance the fulfilment of WHO targets
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