205 research outputs found
Mass action models of Falklands War battles
No full textWe develop a dataset describing variables associated with six Falklands War battles: combatant numbers; deaths; temporal aspects; and offensive support. Linear relationships between battle duration and deaths necessitate using force and loss ratios to remove temporal variation. Mass action models of battle attrition fit this dataset poorly (at best coefficient of determination ). The low level rules in simulations used by military force designers frequently share assumptions with, or are, mass action models. Errors in force balance or constitution are dangerous so exposing problems with and exploring improvements on existing combat models is important. While six data points are too few for a thorough analysis, our results are consistent with: a linear relationship between time in danger and number killed; different times in danger for the two sides, dependent on detection and lethality ranges; and data substructure, even when temporal aspects are removed through ratio models. This data substructure indicates at least one extra variable needs to be considered. We contend that this variable is related to suppression, and this contention is not falsified by the high use of offensive support in the most successful attacks. Mathematical modellers should consider cancelling out temporal variation in combat datasets through ratio models and/or exploring the effects of mutable detection and lethality ranges. Suppression is an attempt to manage exposure to death, to introduce non-stationarity and irregularity into the dataset to benefit the suppressor, to change the bounds of the system using a soft controller; we should investigate how to model it. Force designers should ask simulation modellers whether the mathematical models underlying their simulations represent suppression accurately (or at all) and rethink reductions of simultaneously delivered offensive support available on demand based on models ignoring suppression.
References J. B. A. Bailey. Field artillery and firepower. Routledge, London, 2009. A. Baudry. La Bataille navale: etudes sur les facteurs tactiques. 1912. Translated by C. F. Atkinson. The naval battle: Studies of the tactical factors. Hugh Rees, London, 1914. http://gallica.bnf.fr/ark:/12148/bpt6k11639411/f9.image S. Biddle. Military power: Explaining victory and defeat in modern battle. Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, 2004. F. D. J. Bowden, B. M. Pincombe and P. B. Williams. Feasible scenario spaces: A new way of measuring capability impacts. In T. Weber, M. J. McPhee and R. S. Anderssen (eds), MODSIM2015, 836–842, 2015. http://www.mssanz.org.au/modsim2015/D3/bowden.pdf D. Brown. The Royal Navy and the Falklands War. Pen and Sword Books, Barnsley, UK, 1987. J. V. Chase. Sea fights: A mathematical investigation of the effect of superiority of force in combats upon the sea. Naval War College Archives, RG 8, Box 109, XTAV (1902), 1902. A. J. Echevarria. After Clausewitz: German military thinkers before the Great War. University Press of Kansas, Lawrence, KS, USA, 2001. J. A. English and B. I. Gudmundsson. On infantry. Praeger, Westport, CT, USA, 1994. B. A. Fiske. American Naval Policy. U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings, January 1905. L. Freedman. The official history of the Falklands Campaign, Volume 2: War and diplomacy. Routledge, London, 2005. G. Fremont-Barnes. The Falklands 1982: Ground operations in the South Atlantic. Osprey, Oxford, UK, 2012. https://ospreypublishing.com/the-falklands-2130 S. Fitz-Gibbon. Not mentioned in despatches: The history and mythology of the Battle of Goose Green. The Lutterworth Press, Cambridge, UK, 1995. http://www.lutterworth.com/product_info.php/products_id/1019 T. R. Hogan. No shells, no attack! The use of fire support by three Commando Brigade Royal Marines during the 1982 Falkland Islands War. AD-A208862, US Army War College, PA, USA, 1989. http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a208862.pdf. L. R. Kosowski, A. Pincombe and B. Pincombe. Irrelevance of the fractal dimension term in the modified fractal attrition equation. ANZIAM J, 52:C988–C1011, 2011. doi:10.21914/anziamj.v52i0.3963 F. W. Lanchester. Aircraft in warfare: The dawn of the fourth arm. Constable, London, 1916. https://archive.org/details/aircraftinwarfar00lancrich C. D. Landry. British artillery during Operation Corporate. Masters Thesis, United States Marine Corps Command and Staff College, 2002. http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a401278.pdf. T. W. Lucas and T. Turkes. Fitting Lanchester equations to the Battles of Kursk and Ardennes. Nav. Res. Log., 51:95–116, 2004. doi:10.1002/nav.10101 J. Millikan, M. Wong and D. Grieger. Suppression of dismounted soldiers: Towards improving dynamic threat assessment in closed loop combat simulations. In J. Piantadosi, R. S. Anderssen and J. Boland (eds), MODSIM2013, 1054–1060, 2013. http://www.mssanz.org.au/modsim2013/D1/millikan.pdf M. Osipov. The influence of the numerical strength of engaged forces in their casualties. Translated by R. L. Helmbold and A. S. Rehm. Nav. Res. Log., 42:435–490, 1995. doi:10.1002/1520-6750(199504)42:3<435::AID-NAV3220420308>3.0.CO;2-2 R. Peterson. On the logarithmic law of combat and its application to tank combat. Oper. Res., 15:557–558, 1967. doi:10.1287/opre.15.3.557 A. H. Pincombe and B. M. Pincombe. Markov modelling of the effectiveness of arms sanctions: A case study of the Falklands War. ANZIAM J., 48:C527–C541, 2006. doi:10.21914/anziamj.v48i0.80 A. H. Pincombe and B. M. Pincombe. Tractable approximations to multistage decisions in air defence scenarios. ANZIAM J., 49:C273–C288, 2007. doi:10.21914/anziamj.v49i0.349 A. H. Pincombe, B. M. Pincombe and C. E. M. Pearce. Putting the art before the force. ANZIAM J., 51:C482–C496, 2010. doi:10.21914/anziamj.v51i0.2584. A. H. Pincombe, B. M. Pincombe and C. E. M. Pearce. A simple battle model with explanatory power. ANZIAM J., 51:C497–C511, 2010. doi:10.21914/anziamj.v51i0.2585 A. H. Pincombe and B. M. Pincombe. Dispersed combat as many-on-many search: Solving generalised Lanchester equations. ANZIAM J. to appear. doi:10.21914/anziamj.v57i0.10447 B. M. Pincombe and A. H. Pincombe. Scoping a flexible deployment framework using adversarial scenario analysis. Int. J. Intell. Def. Supp. Sys., 3(3/4):225–262, 2010. doi:10.1504/IJIDSS.2010.037092 B. M. Pincombe, S. Blunden, A. H. Pincombe and P. Dexter. Ascertaining a hierarchy of dimensions from time-poor experts: Linking tactical vignettes to strategic scenarios. Technol. Forecast. Soc., 80(4):584–598, 2013. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2012.05.001 R. H. Scales. Firepower in limited war. National Defense University Press, Washington, DC, 1993. G. Smith. Battle atlas of the Falklands War 1982 by Land, Sea, and Air. Naval-History.net, Penarth, UK, 2006. http://www.naval-history.net/NAVAL1982FALKLANDS.htm G. Hubbard. HMS Yarmouth: Captains Diary. http://www.hms-yarmouth.com/co.diary.htm
Tractable approximations to multistage decisions in air defence scenarios
No full textSimulations are commonly used to investigate the control and resource allocation problems associated with pitting aircraft against ground based air defences. Such simulations rapidly become computationally intractable as units are added. Previous work described an envelope method that retains computational tractability if the lowest and highest cost target sequences can be defined a priori and used to establish solution bounds. This approach must be modified to be applied to the more common case where there are no obvious best or worst sequences of targets. We show that these bounding sequences can be approximated by using binary comparisons and by basing decisions on a heuristic. This approach compares well with exact results in some computationally tractable situations.
References R. E. Ball, The Fundamentals of Aircraft Combat Survivability Analysis and Design (American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 1985). D. Ghose, M. Krichman, J. L. Speyer and J. S. Shamma, Modeling and analysis of air campaign resource allocation: A spatio-temporal decomposition approach, IEEE Transactions on systems, man and cybernetics- Part A: Systems and humans 32 (2002) 403--418. Jose B. Cruz Jr, Marwan A. Simaan, Aga Gacic, Huihui Jiang, Bruno Letellier, Ming Li and Yong Liu, Game-theoretic modeling and control of a military air operation, IEEE Transactions on aerospace and electronic systems 37 (2001) 1393--1405. Eric V. Larson and Glenn A. Kent, A new methodology for assessing multilayer missile defence options, Monograph Report, RAND Corporation (1994) . W. McEneany, B. Fitzpatrick and I. Lauko, Stochastic game approach to air operations, IEEE Transactions on Aerospace and Electronic Systems 40 (2004) 1191--1216. A. H. Pincombe and B. M. Pincombe, A Markov decision model for tactical military engagements, Proceedings of ASOR2001 (2001) . A. H. Pincombe and B. M. Pincombe, A Markov based method for military analysis, Bulletin of the Australian Society for Operations Research 22 (2003) . A. H. Pincombe and B. M. Pincombe, Markov modelling on the effectiveness of sanctions: A case study of the Falklands war, in Proceedings of the 13th Biennial Computational Techniques and Applications Conference, CTAC-2006 (eds. Wayne Read and A. J. Roberts), Volume 48 of ANZIAM J., http://anziamj.austms.org.au/ojs/index.php/ANZIAMJ/article/view/80 [November 14, 2007], C527--C541. A. Tversky and I. Simonson, Context-dependent preferences, Management Science 39 (1993) 1179--1189. Yong Liu, Marwan A. Simaan and Jose B. Cruz Jr, An application of dynamic Nash task assignment strategies to multi-team military air operations, Automatica 39 (2003) 1469--1479
Dispersed combat as mass action with finite search
No full textImprovements to models of battle attrition are necessary because current models cannot explain battle attrition. Agent based simulations indicate that calculated attrition is substantially different when agents are not assumed to have unlimited detection capabilities. However, agent based models are limited to small force sizes and there is no evidence that the changes in calculated attrition occur for large force sizes. We develop a probabilistic model, based on Bernoulli trials, to check if limited detection capabilities result in significant changes to calculated attrition when force sizes are large, as in battle datasets. Our model is a search model and we convert it to an attrition model via the same processes used in current models, and include the same assumptions for factors other than detection range. We find two series solutions to the model, one for small force sizes, the other for large force sizes, and find numerically that the two solutions strongly overlap. The new model makes a difference to calculated attrition when force sizes are small, but not when they are large. However, the model makes a difference to calculated attrition for all force sizes if the battlefield area is increased to maintain a sparse force density. Our approach is mathematical, not requiring application knowledge, and several of the assumptions underlying mass action models are raised in our discussion.
References J. V. Chase. Sea fights: A mathematical investigation of the effect of superiority of force in combats upon the sea. Naval War College Archives, RG 8, Box 109, XTAV (1902), 1902. N. R. Franks and L. W. Partridge. Lanchester battles and the evolution of combat in ants. Anim. Behav., 45:197–199, 1993. doi:10.1006/anbe.1993.1021 G. S. Gradschtein and I. M. Ryzhik. Tables of Series, Products and Integrals. Deutcher Verlag der Wissenschaften, 1996. N. C. Grassly and C. Fraser. Mathematical models of infectious disease transmission. Nat. Rev. Microbiol., 6:477–487, 2008. doi:10.1038/nrmicro1845 D. Kahneman. Thinking Fast and Slow. Penguin, London, 2013. L. R. Kosowski, A. Pincombe and B. Pincombe. Irrelevance of the fractal dimension term in the modified fractal attrition equation. ANZIAM J., 52:C988–C1011, 2011. doi:10.21914/anziamj.v52i0.3963 F. W. Lanchester. Aircraft in warfare: The dawn of the fourth arm. Constable, London, 1916. http://edc448uri.wikispaces.com/file/view/Lanchester+-+Aircraft+in+Warfare.pdf T. W. Lucas and T. Turkes. Fitting Lanchester equations to the Battles of Kursk and Ardennes. Nav. Res. Log., 51:95–116, 2004. doi:10.1002/nav.10101 T. W. Lucas and J. A. Dinges. The effect of battle circumstances on fitting Lanchester equations to the Battle of Kursk. Mil. Oper. Res., 9:17–30, 2004. http://www.mors.org/Publications/MOR-Journal/Online-Issues P. M. Morse and G. E. Kimball. Methods of Operations Research. Wiley, 1951. M. Osipov. The influence of the numerical strength of engaged forces in their casualties. Translated by R. L. Helmbold and A. S. Rehm. Nav. Res. Log., 42:435–490, 1995. doi:10.1002/1520-6750(199504)42:3<435::AID-NAV3220420308>3.0.CO;2-2 R. Peterson. On the logarithmic law of combat and its application to tank combat. Oper. Res., 15:557–558, 1967. doi:10.1287/opre.15.3.557 A. H. Pincombe, B. M. Pincombe and C. E. M. Pearce, Putting the art before the force. ANZIAM J., 51:C482–C496, 2010. doi:10.0000/anziamj.v51i0.2584. A. H. Pincombe, B. M. Pincombe and C. E. M. Pearce. A simple battle model with explanatory power. ANZIAM J., 51:C497–C511, 2010. doi:10.21914/anziamj.v51i0.2585. B. M. Pincombe and A. H. Pincombe. Mass action models of Falklands War battles. ANZIAM J., 57:C235–C252, 2016. doi:10.21914/anziamj.v57i0.10450 J. G. Taylor. Lanchester models of warfare. Operations Research Society of America, Arlington, 1983
A simple battle model with explanatory power
No full textAttrition equations have military use and are also used in biological and economic modelling. We model the aggregation of attrition in a battle to explain the strong support in historical data for the log law, which conventionally is thought to apply mainly to losses through accident or illness. Support for the log law has been found in many studies of battle data and this has yet to be explained. Several historical studies found support for a mixture of attrition laws, suggesting that different laws could apply to different parts of the battle. We hypothesise that the log law could be supported through aggregation effects when other laws apply on a micro scale. We assume that all laws work at skirmish level and show that aggregation effects will only support the log law if the individual skirmishes being aggregated are themselves modelled by the log law. We argue that the extreme support for the log law in the Kursk dataset is due to an overwhelming support for that law at the level of individual skirmishes, and that the conventional use of square and linear law for skirmishes is incorrect. These results suggest that theoretical changes to attrition equations should be based on studies of small unit attrition as aggregation effects do not cause cross over from square or linear laws to log law.Adrian Hall Pincombe, Brandon Pincombe and Charles Pearc
The Theatre of Adrian Hall
No full textThe topic of this study is the American stage director, Adrian Hall, who has been the artistic director of the Trinity Repertory Company in Providence, Rhode Island, since 1964 and who has held the same position concurrently at the Dallas Theater Center in Texas since 1983.
Part 1 presents an historical overview of Hall\u27s career, beginning with his first professional productions in Texas, continuing through his work Off-Broadway in New York in the 1950s, and covering his quarter-century at Trinity Rep and six seasons at Dallas. This segment of the study traces how Hall developed the principles that inform his process as a director, especially his premise that the theatre event is a confrontation between the actor and the audience.
Part 2 examines Hall\u27s process in the rehearsal room in each of four functional areas to assess how his emphasis on the confrontation between the actor and the spectator shapes his day-to-day directing technique. One major production is analyzed in each area to demonstrate (1) how this director perceives and utilizes the dramatic text, (2) how he manipulates the actor-audience relationship in the theatrical space, (3) how he works with his permanent acting ensembles to interpret the text through the style of performance and (4) how he collaborates with designers to incorporate the elements of lighting, costumes, properties and set pieces, sound, music and special effects. The productions selected for study include All the King\u27s Men (text), Cathedral of Ice (space), Mensch Meier (actors), and Brother to Dragons (production values). Secondary examples are cited from numerous other productions. A case study of Hall\u27s production of The Tempest at the Dallas Theater Center demonstrates Hall\u27s whole process during a single production.
The research into Hall\u27s career is supported by direct observation of Hall\u27s rehearsals and by personal interviews the author had with Hall and with the actors, designers and other colleagues who have worked with him throughout his career. The appendix provides a comprehensive history of Hall\u27s professional productions, including dates, theatres and designers
Studying flexibility in modularisable vehicle systems
No full textSome systems continue working under partial failure; errors can be made in assessing the performance of such systems if static measures are used. Systems that appear to be equal on the basis of idealised data can perform differently under component loss. For some system features, such as component modularity, the evidence of benefits, based on static measures, is equivocal. We propose that a modular design will perform better than a nonmodular design under component loss. We consider two systems, each designed to a particular budget and completely effective over all variations contained in the design context. One of the systems has modular components. We use the mission criticality model to assess the benefits of introducing this component modularity and compare the results with a related static assessment. When demands are variable, the modular system is superior under component loss, due to its greater component redundancy.
References A. Bender, F. Bowden, A. Pincombe, and P. Williams. Role of mission criticality and component reliability in defining and evaluating system effectiveness. In Andrew Stacey, Bill Blyth, John Shepherd, and A. J. Roberts, editors, Proceedings of the 7th Biennial Engineering Mathematics and Applications Conference, EMAC-2005, volume 47 of ANZIAM J., pages C760--C775, June 2007. \protect http://anziamj.austms.org.au/V47EMAC2005/Bender [June 26, 2007]. James Whitacre, Axel Bender, Stephen Baker, Qi Fan, Hussein A. Abbass, and Ruhul Sarker. Network topology and time criticality effects in the modularised fleet mix problem. Accepted for publication simtect2008. Matti A. Hiltunen, Richard D. Schlichting, and Carlos A. Ugarte. Building survivable services using redundancy and adaptation. IEEE Transactions on Computers, 52(2):181--194, February 2003. doi:10.1109/TC.2003.1176985 J. F. Meyer. On evaluating the performability of degradable computer systems. IEEE Transactions on Computers, c-29:720--731, 1980
Uncertainty in availability generated by inventory management controls in a generic repairable item sustainment system
No full textFor defence logistics, strategic planning is typically based on mean values. Supply flows are estimated from average throughputs, and supply chain resources are allocated to meet average demands. Operations management is also based on mean values. Mean-value based inventory management techniques are the preferred way to maintain the availability of spare parts. Recent research suggests that defence maintenance systems using such inventory management techniques are sensitive to stochastic variability in stock demand. We illustrate that these deliberate planning actions can lead to increased uncertainty in the prediction of output measures such as operational availability. We use Discrete Event Simulation as well as Design of Experiments methods to model a maintenance system for a single type of repairable item. We demonstrate that the inclusion of inventory management leads to increased average availability of spare parts for a vehicle fleet. However, in some cases the variation in availability decreases the system's apparent reliability.
References Anscombe, F. J. (1948) The Validity of Comparative Experiments. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (General) 111 (3): 181--211. doi:10.2307/2984159 MR30181. Bender A., Pincombe A. H., Sherman G. D. (2009) Effects of decay uncertainty in the prediction of life-cycle costings for large scale military capability projects 18th World IMACS / MODSIM Congress, Cairns, Australia 13--17 July 2009. Brown, R. G Statistical Forecasting for Inventory Control McGraw-Hill, New York, 1959 Brown, Robert Goodell Smoothing Forecasting and Prediction of Discrete Time Series Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall , 1963 Gardner, E. S., Jr., and McKenzie, E. Forecasting trends in time series Management Science, 31, 1237--1246, 1985 Jie Wan, Cong Zhao, Simulation Research on Multi-Echelon Inventory System in Supply Chain Based on Arena, icise, pp.397--400, First International Conference on Information Science and Engineering, 2009 Hartmut Bossel Systems and models: Complexity, Dynamics, Evolution, Sustainability Books on Demand GmbH, 2007 Piasecki, David J. Inventory Management Explained: A focus on Forecasting, Lot Sizing, Safety Stock, and Ordering Systems OPS Publishing, 2009. Sherman G. D., Pincombe A. H., Bender A. (2009) Determining some of the triggers for early life cycle failure in decay affected logistic queueing simulation, Proceedings of the 9th Biennial Engineering Mathematics and Applications Conference, EMAC-2009 ANZIAM J., 51(E):C715--C729, 2010. http://journal.austms.org.au/ojs/index.php/ANZIAMJ/article/view/2604
Shocks in the internal tide on the Australian North West Shelf
No full textThe evolution of shocks in the semi-diurnal internal tide on the Australian North West Shelf has previously been studied and an analytic solution has been found in terms of non-physical variables. Conversion of the results to physical variables requires the solution of the modal equation which can be solved analytically only if the background velocity profile is linear or constant. In this study the modal equation is solved numerically and this solution is used to study the effect of nonlinear background velocity profiles. It is found that profiles which are compatible with the profile of averaged currents can explain the observed shock heights as long as there is a strong shear near the surface
South African travel writing and bias
No full textIncludes bibliographical references (leaves 92-96).This thesis spotlights the travel and leisure magazine industry within South Africa. It contends that the travel writing genre is susceptible to a number of biases, both past and present, which ultimately affect the way its overall content is produced and presented to the public. This work was substantiated through a set of qualitative interviews with key professionals within the South African travel and leisure magazine industry, as well as through a theme- based content analysis of a number of local travel writing publications. This study adds to a rather extensive line of research written on the topic of travel writing regarding a number of older criticisms of bias including 'othering', escapism, and gendering. However, it also focuses on a number of more modem biases such as direct advertising, advertorial usage, as well as the acceptance of 'freebies' and barter agreements, none of which has been given much attention in previous research. The sheer existence of these and other biases within the modem South African travel and leisure magazine industry exhibits an absolute necessity of examination into such a topic, especially given the importance and overall influence that the travel writing industry has on a country's economic standing and overall image
Chapters in an edited book for students
No full textThis key textbook will become core reading for students studying a module on Human Resource Strategy at upper level Uundergraduate, MBA and Masters level. The author team have proved successful with students and academics alike with their market leading Research Methods for Business Students and, more recently, Employee Relations.
As people and their capabilities are core to an organisations’ competitive advantage, the planning and implementing of strategies including the human resource becomes a focus of all managers in a business. This new text successfully integrates HR strategy with the overall business strategy, examining both how the HR function contributes to, and is affected by that strategy.
A true teaching and learning resource, the book combines cutting edge coverage of issues such as performance management and measurement, strategic reward systems, the learning organisation and managing knowledge for strategic advantage, with a wealth of examples, self-assessment exercises and encouragement to critique
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