1,721,084 research outputs found
Testing rational expectations in primary commodity markets
No full textThe standard method used to test the rational expectations hypothesis (REH) in primary commodity markets is by means of a structural approach. In this paper, a parsimonious vector error correction model in the price and stock equation is derived that maintains almost complete information of the underlying structural model. The empirical section utilizes 1955–2000 US copper data to investigate the properties of the model extended to the macroeconomic variables. The estimation results are statistically robust and are in keeping with economic theory. Three
different results are found: (i) price adjustments depend on the shortrun dynamic of the stock equation, whereas the long-run dynamic is statistically rejected; (ii) the over-identification restrictions, including the test for the REH, are not rejected; (iii) the forecast simulations on price are well performed
Innovations and Labour Market Institutions: An Empirical Analysis of the Italian Case in the middle 90’s
No full textIn this paper a dynamic panel data specification is used to assess the relationship between labour market
flexibility and innovation activities by distinguishing different technological regimes of activities and geographical areas of the Italian economy. In order to estimate the previous relationship, regional patents are included as a proxy of the innovation, while job turnover and wages represent labour market indicators. The results show that higher job turnover has a significant and negative impact on patent activities only in regional sectors of Northern Italy, while a positive and significant impact of blue and white collar wages has been generally found
Military spending, corruption and economic growth
No full textThe purpose of this paper is to identify the complementary effect of corruption and military sector on economic performance and to test the magnitude of their impact separately. Unlike the method generally used in the economic literature, we estimate a cardinal corruption index expressed as a percentage of GDP per capita through the multiple causes multiple indicators model (MIMIC). The cross-country results show a negative impact of military spending and corruption indicator on economic performance, which are in line with previous findings. However, the negative effect is mitigated by a significant positive, though asymmetric, relationship between these two factors in affecting per capita growth rate. Copyright © 2008 The Berkeley Electronic Press. All rights reserved
Habits, Complementarities and Heterogeneity in Alcohol and Tobacco Demand: a Multivariate Dynamic Model
No full textIn this paper we test the existence of forward-looking behaviour in a multivariate model for alcohol and tobacco consumption. The theoretical framework, based on a dynamic adjustment cost model with forward-looking behaviour, is enhanced to include the intertemporal interactions between the two goods. The analysis of the within-period preferences completes the intertemporal model, allowing to evaluate the static substitutability/complementarity relationships. The empirical strategy consists in a two-step estimation procedure. In a first stage, we obtain the parameters of the demand system, while in a second stage Euler equations are estimated. Results, based on a cohort data set constructed from a series of cross-sections of the Italian Household Budget Survey, reveal a significant complementarity relationship between alcohol and tobacco. Estimation of the Euler equations does not lead to rejection of the hypothesis of intertemporal dependence, providing evidence for a forwardlooking behaviour in alcohol and tobacco consumption. Moreover, we find significant intertemporal interactions that support the adjustment cost setting in a multivariate model with rational expectations
Corruption and the effects of economic freedom
No full textThe prediction that economic freedom is beneficial in reducing corruption has not been found
to be universally robust in empirical studies. The present work reviews this relationship by
using firms' data in a cross-country survey and argues that approaches using aggregated macro
data have not been able to explain it appropriately. We model cross-country variations of the
microfounded economic freedom–corruption relationship using multilevel models. Additionally,
we analyse this relationship by disentangling the determinants for several components of
economic freedom because not all areas affect corruption equally. The results show that the
extent of the macro-effects on the measures of (micro)economic freedom for corruption,
identified by the degree of economic development of a country, can explain why a lack of
competition policies and government regulations may yield more corruption. Estimations for
Africa and transition economy subsamples confirm our conjectures
Can health conditions predict body weight? An analysis of Italian conscript patterns in the cohorts of 1951 and 1980
No full textThis paper investigates the health correlates of a by-product of development economics: the generalised increase in overweight and obesity in the past few decades. Using data from conscript cohorts taken from the archives of Italian military districts in 1951 and 1980, we find that younger conscripts exposed to the rising prevalence of immune-allergological and psychological diseases and metabolic dysfunctions underwent substantial increases in weight. These results are evident with quantile regression models, with the largest gains in diabetes conscripts at the 75th and 90th percentiles of BMI. Estimates include education and specific regional effects to stress the patterns of BMI as a well-being indicator across generations of the Italian population. We conclude that the sizeable increase in percentages of some diseases in the youngest cohort limits the Italian well-being benefits after World War II
Corruption and the effects of economic freedom
No full textThe prediction that economic freedom is beneficial in reducing corruption has not been found to be universally robust in empirical studies. The present work reviews this relationship by using firms' data in a cross-country survey and argues that approaches using aggregated macro data have not been able to explain it appropriately. We model cross-country variations of the microfounded economic freedom-corruption relationship using multilevel models. Additionally, we analyse this relationship by disentangling the determinants for several components of economic freedom because not all areas affect corruption equally. The results show that the extent of the macro-effects on the measures of (micro)economic freedom for corruption, identified by the degree of economic development of a country, can explain why a lack of competition policies and government regulations may yield more corruption. Estimations for Africa and transition economy subsamples confirm our conjectures. © 2012 Elsevier B.V
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