139,349 research outputs found
Henry Phillips Civil War letters
No full textThis collection contains principally letters written by Henry T. Phillips to his family while he served in Helena, Arkansas, with the 47th Iowa Infantry. Also included is a letter written to Phillips and a letter written to Mattie Sawyers, who later became his wife
T. S. Phillips to Horace Kephart, January 9, 1927
No full textIn a letter to Horace Kephart on January 9, 1927, T. S. Phillips asks Kephart where he might obtain the moccasins he writes about in Camping and Woodcraft. He asks about the antiseptic Kephart mentions, and compliments his writing
[Letter] [n.d.] Albany [to] T. Phillips Esq., 8 George St. / Denham Dixon.
No full textMs.Dixon apologizes for "absolutely forgetting my appointment" to meet Phillips, explaining that he was "at the British Museum all day about my Birds and Quadrupeds." He requests to know when he might come again
A. T. Phillips to All Outdoors, Inc., November 25, 1921
No full textIn a letter to All Outdoors on November 25, 1921, A. T. Phillips sends $1 in hopes of receiving a tin of Yerba Mate that he read about in the 1919 article “Roving with Kephart.” He also expresses appreciation for Kephart’s writings and wishes the magazine had more contributors like him.miuam luuotam a-.,
spokting m®m
Terrell, Taxes. MMF« 25, 1121.
ALL WriMORS, !!«!.
47 WJff 4fth «.
S!W TOJK CHf, 8»f»
I»
2a year iasue of 0*t©8»r 1910 under "Roving with RspharV
ths subject of *f*t%l Mate* appealed t;> »« at feeing a find for a ram,
during eeawaleseawee, and ether uses. 1 aislald this Issue and only
found It » few'days a#>, .alter eaeh«aftg it so throtiihly, 1 ©ould»*t
find it ayaelf.
1 »=i leaving imfiw days far *e«ta Ms** for the Hills,
«aae— mlpter Had iron latter* and 1 east a tin *f Tarhe Sat* »ers thea
anything els* a th© world right mm to taks with a*. . ia th* artiela
la your issue aoa*e referred to, yea stats that a tin of sheet Z lbs
rstails at #1.00. 2 an sasloaiag l^iowrrsaay), and If there shsuld
he say s/tooets, ia oris*,, please ssad It aarasl post ^Jg^JI* Sml JEffjr
djUti as 2 mat this Just as <plokly m possible.
2 osrtaialy wish th* outdoor sv>,*pgin*s had mora Goatrilv-
ters iiko Ksuhirt. Bvery one si his artaelss Is full of th* "human*
aad h* irresistibly draws th* reader to his. With eaoh issuo of ALL
CVrhOOaS 2 look far Ke.hart first.
Thanking you ia advance for your prompt attention ia the
above matter, and wishing ALL m:mom to uaoeuaded euoaess which it
2 hog to renaln.
Vtry truly youra,
a. f. PHILLIPS
403 W » M3K AWfUI
TURKU* ,.TBU8
What do New-Keynesian Phillips Curves imply for price-level targeting?
No full textThis paper extends the analysis of price-level targeting to a model including the New-Keynesian Phillips Curve. We examine the inflation-output variability tradeoffs implied by optimal inflation and price-level rules. In previous work with the Neoclassical Phillips Curve, we found that the choice between inflation targeting and price-level targeting depended on the amount of persistence in the output gap. That is, if the output gap was not too persistent, or if lagged output did not enter the aggregate supply function, then inflation targets were preferred to price-level targets. When we start with a New-Keynesian Phillips Curve, the amount of persistence in the output gap still affects the relative placement of the inflation-output variability tradeoff. But, contrary to the Neoclassical case, even where the persistence of the output gap in the aggregate supply function is small or nonexistent, the price-level- targeting regime still results in a more favorable tradeoff between output and inflation variability than does an inflation-targeting regime.Phillips curve ; Monetary policy ; Inflation (Finance)
The South African Phillips Curve: How Applicable is the Gordon Model?
No full textIs there a Phillips curve relationship present in South Africa and if so, what form does it take? Traditionally the way to estimate the Phillips curve is merely to regress the change in the price level on a measure of the output gap (or the deviation of actual unemployment from the NAIRU). However, Gordon (1990:481-5) has argued that estimating the Phillips curve in this manner biases the estimated results. Instead, Gordon (1997; 1989) puts forward his so-called triangular model that controls for inertia effects, output level effects and rates-of-change (in output) effects. He applies the model to several European countries, the US and Japan and finds meaningful results. The question this paper poses is whether or not the triangular model also applies to South Africa. In estimating the Phillips curve for South Africa the paper also experiments with four versions of the output gap, based on four different methods to estimate long run output, including the standard Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter and the production function approach. There are several variants of the Phillips curve. The first, as estimated by Phillips (1958) himself, measures the relationship between wage inflation and unemployment. However, other versions consider the relationship between price inflation and unemployment or price inflation and output. This paper focuses on the latter, given the absence of quarterly unemployment data in South Africa, as well as the lack of a reliable and sufficiently long unemployment time series. The paper first presents an overview of literature on the Phillips curve and its estimation for South Africa and other countries. This is followed by the second section that considers the model to be estimated, the data as well as the discussion of the alternative measures of the output gap. The third section presents the estimated results followed by section four that contains the conclusion and a discussion of the policy implications.
Evolving Phillips trade-off
No full textWe characterise the evolution of the U.S. unemployment-inflation trade-off since the late XIX century era via a Bayesian time-varying parameters structural VAR. The Great Inflation episode appears as historically unique along several dimensions. In particular, the shape of the ‘Phillips loop’–which is defined in terms of the impulse-response functions of inflation and unemployment’s deviations from equilibrium–was, during those years, clearly out of line with respect to the rest of the sample period for all structural innovations except money demand shocks. During the Great Depression, on the other hand, the Phillips trade-off did not exhibit any peculiar qualitative feature, so that, when seen through these lenses, the 1930s only stand out because of the sheer size of the macroeconomic fluctuation. The historical evolution of the Phillips trade-off exhibits virtually no connection with the evolution of the extent of trade openness of the U.S. economy. Although, by itself, this does not rule out a possible impact of globalisation on the slope of the trade-off in recent years, it clearly suggests that, historically, the evolution of the trade-off has been dominated by factors other than trade openness. JEL Classification: E30, E32Bayesian VARs, Globalisation, Great Depression, Great Inflation, identified VARs, Lucas Critique, Phillips trade-off, stochastic volatility, time-varying parameters
Letter from S. J. Phillips, President of the Booker T. Washington Birthplace Memorial, to Charley Daniels
No full textLetter from S. J. Phillips, President of the Booker T. Washington Birthplace Memorial, to Charley Daniels, concerning planned field trip to the site by the New Farmers of America and the New Homemakers of America
The Real-time Forecasting Performance of Phillips Curves
No full textAnalysts typically use a variety of techniques to forecast inflation. These include both ‘bottom-up’ approaches, for near-term forecasting, as well as econometric methods (such as mark-up models of inflation, which have been found to perform quite well for Australia – see de Brouwer and Ericsson (1998)). One of the econometric approaches to inflation forecasting which is sometimes considered is the use of Phillips curves based on estimates of the output gap. This paper suggests, however, that the real-time capacity of such Phillips curves to forecast inflation is limited, relative even to such simple benchmark forecasting approaches as an autoregressive (AR) model of inflation or a random walk assumption. It appears that the lack of precision with which output-gap-based Phillips curves can be estimated in real time limits their usefulness as a means of forecasting inflation in isolation. Phillips curve-based forecasts may, however, perform a little better than AR model-based ones in at least predicting whether inflation will increase or decrease from its current level. Moreover, combining Phillips curve-based forecasts with those from simple, alternative approaches does seem to offer some scope for improving the real-time forecast accuracy of the latter. These observations suggest that, in spite of their generally disappointing performance as a means of forecasting inflation in isolation, output-gap-based Phillips curves may continue to be useful in real time – as a tool for conditioning gap estimates within a multivariate filtering framework, and as a possible complement to other, alternative inflation forecasting approaches.monetary policy; forecasting inflation; output gaps; real-time data
Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve
No full textThe ability of the New Keynesian Phillips curve to explain US inflation dynamics when official central bank forecasts (Greenbook forecasts) are used as a proxy for inflation expectations is examined. The New Keynesian Phillips curve is estimated on quarterly data spanning the period 1970Q1-1998Q2 against the alternative of the Hybrid Phillips curve, which allows for a backward-looking component in the price-setting behavior in the economy. The results are compared to those obtained using actual data on future inflation as conventionally employed in empirical work under the assumption of rational expectations. The empirical evidence provides, in contrast to most of the relevant literature, considerable support for the standard forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve when inflation expectations are measured using official inflation forecasts. In this case, lagged inflation terms become insignificant in the hybrid specification. The usefulness of real unit labor cost as the preferred proxy for real marginal cost in recent empirical work on the Phillips curve is confirmed by our results.Money demand; Inflation; Phillips curve; Real marginal cost; Real-time data; GMM estimation
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