249 research outputs found
Employment growth, inflation and output growth: Was phillips right? Evidence from a dynamic panel
No full textCopyright @ 2011 Brunel UniversityIn this paper we analyse the short- and long-run relationship between employment growth, inflation and output growth in Phillips’ tradition. For this purpose we apply FMOLS, DOLS, PMGE, MGE, DFE, and VECM methods to a nonstationary heterogeneous dynamic panel including annual data for 119 countries over the period 1970-2010, and also carry out multivariate Granger causality tests. The empirical results strongly support the existence of a single cointegrating relationship between employment growth, inflation and output growth with bidirectional causality between employment growth and inflation as well as output growth, giving support to Phillips’ Golden Triangle theory
Sticky Information Phillips Curves: European Evidence
No full textWe estimate the sticky information Phillips curve model of Mankiw and Reis (2002) using survey expectations of professional forecasters from four major European economies. Our estimates imply that inflation expectations in France, Germany and the United Kingdom are updated about once a year, in Italy about once each six months
Makroökonomie: Blind Spot Gender. Erweiterung makroökonomischer Indikatoren durch eine Gender-Komponente am Beispiel der empirischen Phillips-Kurve
No full textDieser Beitrag möchte einen Impuls zur stärkeren Berücksichtigung von Genderaspekten in makroökonomischen Modellen geben. Am Beispiel der Philipps-Kurve geht es um die Frage, ob sich das Erwerbsverhalten von Frauen und Männern so stark voneinander unterscheidet, dass sich dies im Verlauf des Zusammenhangs von Inflation und Arbeitslosigkeit niederschlägt. Erste Hinweise dafür werden in deskriptiven Analysen für die Beobachtungszeiträume 1971 bis 1990 und 1991 bis 2017 gefunden. Die Studie bezieht sich auf die klassische Phillips-Kurve, die den empirischen Zusammenhang zwischen Inflation und Arbeitslosigkeit untersucht. Von einer Modellierung nach neukeynesianschem Vorbild wird zunächst abgesehen. Die Phillips-Kurve büßte in dieser Zeit erheblich an Erklärungskraft ein. Aus dem teilweise gegensätzlichen Verlauf der Philipps-Kurve unter Verwendung geschlechterspezifischer Erwerbslosenquoten wird abgeleitet, dass sich diese Entwicklung im Zuge der stark gestiegenen Erwerbsbeteiligung von Frauen noch beschleunigt hat. Die geschlechterspezifischen Unterschiede im Verlauf der Philipps-Kurve werden besonders deutlich unter Verwendung der von konjunkturellen Schwankungen weitgehend befreiten Erwerbslosenquote. Dies wird als Indiz für strukturelle Unterschiede im Erwerbsverhalten von Frauen und Männern gewertet. Das Ergebnis stärkt damit die Argumentation nach einer stärkeren Berücksichtigung von Genderaspekten in makroökonomischen Modellen. Weitere Forschungsarbeiten sind notwendig, um Aussagen über kausale Zusammenhänge treffen zu können
Does more education protect against mental health problems?
No full textMental health conditions are a leading cause of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and health costs worldwide: They account for 199 million DALYs or 37 percent of healthy life years lost from non-communicable diseases. The sum of direct and indirect costs worldwide were estimated to amount to 2.5 trillion US dollars in 2010 and projected to increase to 6 trillion US dollars in 2030 (Bloom et al., 2010). The heavy financial and societal burdens of mental health impairments also mean that prevention measures to alleviate these problems will have high financial and societal returns. Education has been theorized to be such a prevention measure. This DIW Roundup reviews contemporaneous research on the causal effect of education on mental health.We acknowledge funding from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Förderkennzeichen: NIMOERT2). All responsibility for the content of this publication is assumed by the author
Constructing Joint Confidence Bands for Impulse Response Functions of VAR Models - A Review
No full textMethods for constructing joint confidence bands for impulse response functions
which are commonly used in vector autoregressive analysis are reviewed.
While considering separate intervals for each horizon individually still seems
to be the most common approach, a substantial number of methods have been
proposed for making joint inferences about the complete impulse response
paths up to a given horizon. A structured presentation of these methods is
provided. Furthermore, existing evidence on the small-sample performance
of the methods is gathered. The collected information can help practitioners
to decide on a suitable confidence band for a structural VAR analysis.Part of the work on this paper was conducted while the first author was a
Fernand Braudel Fellow at the European University Institute in Florence.
Financial support from the National Science Center (NCN) through MAESTRO
4: DEC-2013/08/A/HS4/00612 is gratefully acknowledged
Birth weight, climate at birth and the risk of obesity in adult life
No full textOBJECTIVE: To determine whether obesity in adults is related to seasonal or climatic conditions around the time of birth.SUBJECTS: 1750 men and women born in Hertfordshire between 1920 and 1930.MEASUREMENTS: Height and weight measured in the home by trained fieldworkers.RESULTS: Body mass index (BMI) rose with increasing birth weight in men and women. In men, BMI and the prevalence of obesity (BMI > or = 30 kg/m2) varied as a function of month of birth and was greater among those born in January-June than among those born in July-December. The relationship between birth weight and adult obesity was also stronger in those born in the first 6 months of the year or following cold winters than in those born in the last 6 months of the year or following mild winters.CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that adult obesity is linked both to high birth weight and to early cold exposure. Consequently, exposures in early life may contribute to individual variation in susceptibility to obesity in adults.</p
Monetary policy and inflation dynamics in ASEAN economies
No full textThis paper investigates the evolution of inflation dynamics in the five largest ASEAN countries between 1997 and 2017. To account for changes in the monetary policy frameworks since the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC), the analysis is based on country-specific Phillips Curves allowing for time-varying parameters. The paper finds evidence of a higher degree of forward-looking dynamics and a better anchoring of inflation expectations, consistent with the improvements in monetary policy frameworks in the region. In contrast, the quantitative impact of cyclical fluctuations and import prices has gradually diminished over time
A noncausal autoregressive model with time-varying parameters: An application to US inflation
No full textWe propose a noncausal autoregressive model with time-varying parameters, and apply it to U.S. postwar inflation. The model .fits the data well, and the results suggest that inflation persistence follows from future expectations. Persistence has declined in the early 1980.s and slightly increased again in the late 1990.s. Estimates of the new Keynesian Phillips curve indicate that current inflation also depends on past inflation although future expectations dominate. The implied trend inflation estimate evolves smoothly and is well aligned with survey expectations. There is evidence in favor of the variation of trend inflation following from the underlying marginal cost that drives inflation
Productivity and the Natural Rate of Unemployment
No full textI propose an econometric model that improves upon existing methods of estimating the natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) by using information contained in the trend of productivity growth. My approach enhances the recently proposed model of Staiger, Stock and Watson (1997) in several respects. Statistically speaking, the method substantially shrinks the width of the 95% confidence interval, performs better in an out-of-sample inflation forecasting exercise, and is more robust to alternative statistical assumptions. In economic terms, the productivity-augmented model generates a more realistic time profile of the NAIRU, and implies estimates of the Phillips curve slope and the sacrifice ratio that are more in line with conventional wisdom. I also test whether the natural rate is correlated with the level or with the change of the productivity growth trend. I find support for the ?level? hypothesis in both the US and international data
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