2,329 research outputs found
Does Modern Econometrics replicate the Phillips Curve?
No full textThis paper reexamines the existence of a long-run relationship between wages and unemployment in the U.K., with data over the period 1860-1913 used by A.W. Phillips to derive the well-known Phillips Curve. Using Johansen's maximum likelihood method of testing for cointegration, a long-run inverse relationship is indeed depicted between the rate of inflation and the unemployment rate. However, the main impact of deviations from this long-run equilibrium is on the unemployment rate rather than the rate of inflation.Phillips Curve; long-run equilibrium; cointegration
Identifying the New Keynesian Phillips curve
No full textPhillips curves are central to discussions of inflation dynamics and monetary policy. New Keynesian Phillips curves describe how past inflation, expected future inflation, and a measure of real marginal cost or an output gap drive the current inflation rate. This paper studies the (potential) weak identification of these curves under generalized methods of moments (GMM) and traces this syndrome to a lack of persistence in either exogenous variables or shocks. The authors employ analytic methods to understand the identification problem in several statistical environments: under strict exogeneity, in a vector autoregression, and in the canonical three-equation, New Keynesian model. Given U.S., U.K., and Canadian data, they revisit the empirical evidence and construct tests and confidence intervals based on exact and pivotal Anderson-Rubin statistics that are robust to weak identification. These tests find little evidence of forward-looking inflation dynamics.
Choice of Aggregate Demand Proxy and its Affect on Phillips Curve Nonlinearity: U.S. Evidence
No full textUsing nonlinearity testing and modeling associated with the smooth transition regression model we examine how the choice of aggregate demand proxy affects, if at all, the nonlinearity of the Phillips curve. The three proxies we examine are the unemployment rate, output gap, and real unit labor costs. Our data is monthly from 1983-2008 for the U.S. We find that regardless of aggregate demand proxy examined, tests indicate a nonlinear Phillips curve. However, the dynamics of the nonlinear models vary substantially.Phillips curve, nonlinear model, smooth transition regression
Change of regime and Phillips curve stability:The case of Spain, 1964-2002
No full textTraditional Phillips curves relating inflation to a measure of the level of activity, and augmented to include past inflation (assumed to proxy expected inflation), have been thought to be highly unstable over time. In this paper we try to investigate, using recent econometric developments, whether such a statement can be supported over a long time period. In the empirical application, we analyze the case of Spain along the period 1964 to 2002.Structural changes, Inflation, Phillips curve
On selecting policy analysis models by forecast accuracy
No full textThe value of selecting the best forecasting model as the basis for empirical economic policy analysis is questioned. When no model coincides with the data generation process, non-causal statistical devices may provide the best available forecasts: examples from recent work include intercept corrections and differenced-data VARs. However, the resulting models need have no policy implications. A ‘paradox’ may result if their forecasts induce policy changes which can be used to improve the statistical forecast. This suggests correcting statistical forecasts by using the econometric model’s estimate of the ‘scenario’ change. An application to UK consumers expenditure illustrates the analysis
Compositional food standards in the United Kingdom: the case of the Willis Inquiry, 1929-1934
No full text
Late Roman amphora 1: a study of diversification
No full textThis paper draws on petrological work done by the author on the most important type of late Roman amphora - LR1, which was widely distributed in the Mediterranean, Red Sea area and western Britain
Letter from D.F. Goggin, Motor Officer, April 5, 1950
No full textIn this letter, D.F. Goggin, Motor Officer, affirms that Tsugitada Kanamori was employed by his organization starting June 8, 1946 and was still employed there at the time this letter was written. He remarks that Kanamori is a loyal and honest employee and recommends him for any position.This collection contains one box of documents belonging to Tsugitada Kanamori. Materials in this collection mostly pertain to Kanamori’s efforts regarding canceling his renunciation and reinstating his American citizenship
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