5,977 research outputs found
Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test
Full text linkThis paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, how well armed would we have been to predict the Asian crisis? The results are mixed. Two of the models fail to provide useful forecasts. One model provides forecasts that are somewhat informative though still not reliable. Plausible modifications to this model improve its performance, providing some hope that future models may do better. This exercise suggests, though, that while forecasting models may help indicate vulnerability to crisis, the predictive power of even the best of them may be limited. Copyright 1999, International Monetary Fund
Hamilton, Catherine Jane [pseud. Retlaw Spring] (1841–1935), author and journalist
Full text linkHamilton, Catherine Jane [pseud. Retlaw Spring] (1841-1935), author and journalist, was born on 25 January 1841 at Kilmersdon, Somerset, where she was baptized on 12 April 1841, the younger of two daughters of Richard Hamilton (1805?-1859), vicar of Kilmersdon, and his wife Charlotte, née Cooper (1809-1882), the fifth daughter of William Cooper, of Queens County, Ireland. She was of Irish heritage on both sides. Her father belonged to a military family with roots in Strabane (county Tyrone) - his father, John Hamilton, and her father’s four older brothers were all officers in the Fifth Foot – and was a graduate of Trinity College Dublin. He had been a bright scholar with an aptitude for languages, and as a preacher was praised for his powerful sermons and his ability to bring the Bible to life for his parishioners
Investment and risk in Africa
No full textFourteen papers test whether risk is a reason for the low-level of private investment in Africa and whether African governments and international institutions have the power to reduce those risks. Papers discuss the economic and political content of risk indicators; risk and private investment in Africa and other developing areas; a firm-level analysis of risk, financial constraints, and equipment investment in Ghana; the risk and expected returns of African equity investment; a practitioner's approach to risk and portfolio investment in Africa; the Central Bank as a restraint in Uganda; the cash-budget as a restraint in Zambia; the courts as a restraint in Tanzania, Uganda, and Botswana; investment codes as a restraint in southern Africa; the Franc Zone as a restraint; aid and debt conditionality as restraints; investment insurance in Africa; the potential for restraint through international trade agreements; and the potential for restraint through an international charter for foreign direct investment. Collier is with the World Bank. Pattillo is with the International Monetary Fund. Index
Investment and risk in Africa
No full textFourteen papers test whether risk is a reason for the low-level of private investment in Africa and whether African governments and international institutions have the power to reduce those risks. Papers discuss the economic and political content of risk indicators; risk and private investment in Africa and other developing areas; a firm-level analysis of risk, financial constraints, and equipment investment in Ghana; the risk and expected returns of African equity investment; a practitioner's approach to risk and portfolio investment in Africa; the Central Bank as a restraint in Uganda; the cash-budget as a restraint in Zambia; the courts as a restraint in Tanzania, Uganda, and Botswana; investment codes as a restraint in southern Africa; the Franc Zone as a restraint; aid and debt conditionality as restraints; investment insurance in Africa; the potential for restraint through international trade agreements; and the potential for restraint through an international charter for foreign direct investment. Collier is with the World Bank. Pattillo is with the International Monetary Fund. Index
Dr. Jennifer Erkulwater and Dr. Catherine Bagwell – Faculty Author Interview
No full textFeatured authors are Dr. Catherine Bagwell, Associate Professor of Psychology and Dr. Jennifer Erkulwater, Associate Professor of Political Science. Dr. Rick Mayes is another co-author, but he is unable to join us today due to a research leave project in Peru. Their new book, Medicating Children: ADHD and Pediatric Mental Health, integrates analyses of the clinical, political, historical, educational, social, economic and legal aspects of ADHD and the medications and treatment surrounding the mental disorder
Interview with Catherine McCall
No full textInterview with Dr. Catherine McCall, graduate of UNCW's MFA in Creative Writing program and author of Lifeguarding: A Memoir of Secrets, Swimming, and the South
Synthetic and mechanistic studies to expand the scope of alkyne metathesis dynamic covalent chemistry
Full text linkDynamic covalent chemistry (DCC) is a widely applied method for the synthesis of diverse molecular architectures and chemical libraries which are of broad interest in a number of chemical disciplines. As part of the greater subset of molecular self-assembly processes, DCC allows for the assembly of complex molecules from simpler precursors through reversible covalent reactions. Alkyne metathesis has emerged as one of the most frequently applied reactions for the synthesis of shape-persistent molecular architectures via DCC. The scope of alkyne metathesis DCC has been rapidly expanding thanks to the development of increasingly active and functional group tolerant catalyst systems and is thus attractive as a method to prepare functionally diverse and responsive molecules. The continued development of alkyne metathesis as a synthetic strategy relies on both an understanding of reaction pathways and the expansion of this method into new chemical space.
The first section of this dissertation expands upon the synthetic scope of alkyne metathesis to combine orthogonal dynamic functionality into 3D molecular cages. This study outlines the first example of alkyne metathesis being combined with orthogonal dynamic chemistries and also demonstrates that orthogonal DCC is a useful method for generating 3D structures which can respond to chemical stimuli. The third chapter aims to study reaction pathways and intermediates in alkyne metathesis DCC through self-assembly of two-dimensional molecular ladders. By studying these self-assembly processes, we have gained further insights into reaction pathways and kinetic traps in these systems. These studies also help to elucidate some of the key differences observed in the reaction pathways of alkyne metathesis as opposed to other self-assembly processes. We anticipate that the results outlined in this dissertation will complement existing strategies for dynamic synthesis and provide additional insight in to the reactivity of these systems.Submission published under a 24 month embargo labeled 'Closed Access', the embargo will last until 2021-08-01The student, Christopher Pattillo, accepted the attached license on 2019-06-13 at 11:02.The student, Christopher Pattillo, submitted this Dissertation for approval on 2019-06-13 at 11:06.This Dissertation was approved for publication on 2019-06-17 at 16:33.DSpace SAF Submission Ingestion Package generated from Vireo submission #14035 on 2019-11-26 at 13:59:51Made available in DSpace on 2019-11-26T20:58:29Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 3
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Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have They Worked in Practice?
Full text linkSince 1999, IMF staff have been tracking several early warning system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork and to available non-model-based forecasts, such as agency ratings and private analysts' currency crisis risk scores. The data do not speak clearly on the other long-horizon EWS model. The two short-horizon private sector models generally performed poorly. Copyright 2005, International Monetary Fund
Potential gains from capital flight repatriation for Sub-Saharan African countries
Full text linkDespite the recent increase in capital flows to Sub-Saharan Africa, the region remains largely marginalized in financial globalization and chronically dependent on official development aid. And with the potential decline in the level of official development assistance in a context of global financial crisis, the need to increase domestic resources mobilization as well as non-debt generating external resources is critical now more than ever before. However, the debate on resource mobilization has overlooked an important untapped source of funds consisting of the massive stocks of private wealth stashed in Western financial centers, a substantial part of which left the region in the form of capital flight. This paper argues that the repatriation of flight capital should take a more prominent place in this debate from a moral standpoint and for clear economic reasons. On the moral side, the argument is that a large proportion of the capital flight legitimately belongs to the Africans and therefore must be restituted to the legitimate claimants. The economic argument is that repatriation of flight capital will propel the sub-continent on a higher sustainable growth path while preserving its financial stability and without mortgaging the welfare of its future generations through external borrowing. The analysis in the paper demonstrates quantitatively that the gains from repatriation are large and dominate the expected benefits from other sources such as debt relief. It is estimated that if only a quarter of the stock of capital flight was repatriated to Sub-Saharan Africa, the region would go from trailing to leading other developing regions in terms of domestic investment, thus initiating a ‘big-push’-led sustainable long-term economic growth. The paper proposes some strategies for inducing capital flight repatriation, but cautions that the success of this program is contingent on strong political will on the part of African and Western governments and effective coordination and cooperation at the global level.Access to Finance,Economic Theory&Research,Investment and Investment Climate,Debt Markets,Emerging Markets
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