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Un modello di mistura per l'analisi della disoccupazione di lunga durata
No full textIn recent years, specifically in western European countries, it has been observed a notable increase in the number of people showing long duration of job search spells, and this aspect seems to concern mostly some specific groups of the population. Significantly, it has become very common to report besides the unemployment rate the level of long-term unemployment as an important index on the situation of labour markets. In this work a class of mixture models is developed, in order to allow for the coexistence of different distributions of unemployment in the population. These models make possible an interpretation of long-term unemployment allowing for: (a) the estimation of the duration model referred only to individuals with some opportunity of transition to employment, thus eliminating the bias due to the joint estimation of the mixture of two different populations; (b) pointing out the distinctive features (as age, gender, education) related to the disadvantaged side of the population. An empirical application of mixture models on a longitudinal sample coming from the rotating sample structure of the Italian labour force survey is presented, also considering the correction to take into account problems related to length bias
How do immigrants fare during the downturn? Evidence from matching comparable natives
Get PDFBACKGROUND This paper provides empirical evidence regarding the supposed vulnerability of immigrants to the recent economic downturn. OBJECTIVE Our purpose is to understand whether immigrant workers are suffering more from the downturn and, if so, to disentangle whether this is related to being an immigrant or to specific characteristics that make immigrants different from natives. METHODS We use longitudinal data from the Italian Labour Force Survey to compare immigrant and native workers, matched for observable personal, household, and job characteristics by propensity score methods. RESULTS Immigrant workers face a higher probability of ending an ongoing employment spell because their characteristics are more likely associated with higher separation rates, while, when comparing similar workers, differences with natives disappear. In 2009 job separations increased for all male workers, but the impact was stronger for immigrants, mainly because of their characteristics. On the contrary, both groups of female workers showed a slightly lower probability of losing a job in 2009, so that observed differences remained the same before and after the downturn. CONCLUSIONS The impact of the downturn differs markedly by gender, with only male workers being affected. Among these, immigrants suffer more than natives, as their observable characteristics are more associated with losing a job. When comparing only comparable workers, immigrant status itself has no impact on separation rates
Il monitoraggio e la valutazione delle Liste di Mobilità: prime evidenze dalla integrazione con gli archivi Netlabor
No full textDinamica della disoccupazione e disoccupazione di lunga durata
No full textIl capitolo analizza le caratteristiche della durata della disoccupazione in Italia fra il 1993 ed il 2002 utilizzando dati longitudinali dalla Rilevazione delle Forze Lavoro. L'obiettivo è analizzare l'incidenza della disoccupazione di lunga durata ed il suo legame con i flussi in entrata ed uscita dallo stato di disoccupato. L'evidenza principale è che nel periodo analizzato i tassi in ingresso sono scesi, mentre i tassi in uscita sono rimasti stabili, sia per i soggetti appena entrati che per i disoccupati di lunga durata. Guardando alle transizioni verso l'occupazione, la dipendenza dalla durata è negativa e presenta gli stessi pattern per tutti i sottogruppi della popolazione. Al contrario, la probabilità di uscire dalle forze di lavoro non presenta dipendenza dalla durata
Aspetti computazionali nella stima di modelli di durata in presenza di long-term survivors: un’applicazione all’analisi della disoccupazione
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