1,721,113 research outputs found
Further Cross-Country Evidence on the Accuracy of the Private Sector's Output Forecasts
Get PDFThis paper evaluates the performance of Consensus Forecasts of real GDP growth for a large number of industrialized and developing countries for the time period October 1989 to December 1999. The questions addressed are the following: How accurate are private sector forecasts? How does their accuracy compare with that of the IMF's World Economic Outlook? How well do forecasters predict rare events such as recessions or crises? Is discord among forecasters associated with lower forecast accuracy? Copyright 2002, International Monetary Fund
Keeping Public Debt Sustainable in an Equitable Way
Get PDFThe COVID-19 pandemic has claimed over 5 million lives thus far. This grim figure would have been higher still without the strong and timely fiscal support provided by governments around the globe, including support for health sector and the development and deployment of vaccines. The IMF has noted that “in 2020, fiscal policy proved its worth. The increasing public debt in 2020 was fully justified by the need to respond to COVID 19 and its economic, social, and financial consequences” (Gaspar, 2021). How to keep debt sustainable is becoming a policy imperative, made all the more challenging by the lingering effects of the pandemic, particularly on low-income groups. In this article we summarize our recent work on the distributional effects of past major epidemics in this century prior to COVID-19 and the role that fiscal support played in mitigating these effects (Furceri, Loungani, Ostry and Pizzuto, 2021a; 2021b). The policy message is that more inclusive and targeted fiscal policies are needed in coming years if governments wish to achieve public debt sustainability without exacerbating inequality
Will the Economic Impact of COVID-19 Persist? Prognosis from 21st Century Pandemics
No full textCOVID-19 has had a disruptive economic impact in 2020, but how long its impact will persist remains unclear. We offer a prognosis based on an analysis of the effects of five previous major epidemics in this century. We find that these pandemics led to significant and persistent reductions in disposable income, along with increases in unemployment, income inequality and public debt-to-GDP ratios. Energy use and CO2 emissions dropped, but mostly because of the persistent decline in the level of economic activity rather than structural changes in the energy sector. Applying our empirical estimates to project the impact of COVID-19, we foresee significant scarring in economic performance and income distribution through 2025, which be associated with an increase in poverty of about 75 million people. Policy responses more effective than those in the past would be required to forestall these outcomes
Accuracy and properties of German business cycle forecasts
Get PDFIn this paper the accuracy of a wide range of German business cycle forecasters is assessed for the past 10 years. For this purpose, a data set is used comprising forecasts published on a monthly basis by Consensus Economics. The application of several descriptive as well as statistical measures reveals that the accuracy of the 2-years forecasts is low relative to a simple na?ve forecast. This observation can mainly be explained by a systematic overestimation of the growth rates by the forecasters. Moreover, the lack of accuracy can also be explained partly by insufficient information efficiency as well as imitation behaviour. Finally, it is shown that notwithstanding the common errors which affected the accuracy of all forecasters mainly because of their systematic overestimation, they differ significantly in their forecast accuracy. --business cycle forecasting,forecast evaluation,Consensus forecasts
China and emerging Asia: comrades or competitors?
Get PDFWe explore whether increases in China’s exports reduce exports of other emerging Asian economies. We find that correlations between Chinese export growth and that of other emerging Asian economies are actually positive (though often not significantly so), even after controlling for the effects of income growth of trading partners and real effective exchange rates. We also present results from a VAR estimation of aggregate trade equations on the relative importance of foreign income and exchange rates in the determination of Asian export growth. An important finding is that, while exchange rates do matter for export performance, the income growth of trading partners matters even more. In addition, we examine specific products and find evidence that a considerable shifting of trade patterns is taking place, consistent with a ‘flying geese’ pattern in which China and ASEAN-4 move into the product space vacated by the NIEs. Overall, our results suggest that China and emerging Asia are both comrades and competitors. Disclaimer: The views expressed here are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the Federal Reserve Board, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, or the International Monetary Fund.Exports ; Foreign exchange rates ; Trade ; Economic conditions - China ; Exports - China
Labor market fluctuations in Japan and the U.S.--how similar are they?
Get PDFThis article examines the sources of fluctuations in Japanese and U.S. labor markets. Despite the differences in the structures of the two labor markets, the authors find that unemployment and vacancies respond similarly to aggregate shocks. However, different shocks appear to be important in explaining fluctuations in the two labor markets.Labor market ; Unemployment
notice, is given to the source. The Role of Information in Driving FDI: Theory and Evidence
No full textWe wish to thank Benjamin Bental for very useful comments on an earlier draft and Prakash Loungani for many insightful discussions. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily thos
China's Growth to 2030: The Roles of Demographic Change and Investment Risk
Get PDFChina's economic growth has, hitherto, depended on its relative abundance of production labour and its increasingly secure investment environment. Within the next decade, however, China's labour force will begin to contract. This will set its economy apart from other developing Asian countries where relative labour abundance will increase, as will relative capital returns. Unless there is a substantial change in population policy, the retention of China's large share of global FDI will require further improvements in its investment environment. These linkages are explored using a new global demographic model that is integrated with an adaptation of the GTAP-Dynamic global economic model in which regional households are disaggregated by age and gender. Interest premia are integral with projections made using these models and in this paper their influence on China's economic growth performance is investigated under alternative assumptions about fertility decline and labour force growth. China's share of global investment is found to depend sensitively on both its labour force growth and its interest premium though the results suggest that a feasible continuation of financial reforms will be sufficient to compensate for a slowdown and decline in its labour force.
How Clear is the Crystal Ball?
No full textTwo salie nt features of growth forecasts are discussed. First, recessions generally arrive before the forecast. Slowdowns are predicted but forecasters are unable or unwilling to call recessions. Second, private sector forecasts tend to be similar to those of official agencies. Some tips for forecast users are provided.
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