856 research outputs found
Developing a Generic Agent-Based Model to Explore Servicising Policy
No full textContinuous economic growth, ignoring the incidental recession, is currently still coupled with increases in the use of resources and generation of wastes. The European Commission (EC) is looking for ways to achieve absolute decoupling between economic growth and environmental impacts. A shift from product-based to function-based production and consumption, known as `servicising' of the economy, has the potential to contribute to absolute decoupling. The EC is therefore looking for policy measures on all political levels that may stimulate a servicising shift and thereby contribute to absolute decoupling. In this thesis, I propose a generic agent-based model to inform policy towards absolute decoupling, with a focus on the role of servicising. The model captures interactions between selling and buying `agents' and can be parametrised for many different specific markets. It integrates rational and non-rational considerations, decision making on multiple levels of both producers and consumers, and resulting material flows and impacts, all in a generic way. Also, the model features sophisticated market research as a novel basis for the decision making of agents in an artificial market. The model was developed following the methodology for developing an agent-based model proposed by Van Dam, Nikolic and Lukszo \citep{Dam2012}. A substantial part of this thesis is reserved for a reflection on the methodology. The main conclusion from that part is that although the methodology provides valuable structure to help new modellers through model development, the recommended techniques and practices are mostly suitable for relatively small, domain-specific models. Additional practices are recommended in order to successfully build large and generic models. The proposed model is suitable for the three planned case studies in the pan-European SPREE project, of which the generic model development constituted a central part. The concluding sections of this thesis provide suggestions for future extensions of the model, including the inclusion of social networks, spatial explicitness and chain-level interactions.SEPAMESSTechnology, Policy and Managemen
Using gaming as a data collection tool to design rules for agents in agent-based models - A design framework.
No full textAgent-based modelling is a popular and suitable tool for exploring the possible states of so-called socio-technical systems. These systems consist of both technical artefacts (the physical infrastructure, e.g. pipelines), and many social artefacts (relevant actors and institutions, e.g. end-users and governments), which are intertwined with each other and strongly interact (De Bruijn & Herder, 2009). The quality of the model output strongly depends on the quality of the rules of an agent, i.e. the lines of code that describe how an agent behaves. Slightly different rules on agent-level, may lead to significantly different outcomes on system-level (Bousquet, Cambier, Mullon, Morand & Quensiere, 1994; Levine & Fitzgerald, 1992). Thus, valid rules for agents are crucial for a valid analysis of socio-technical systems as a whole. When modelling a socio-technical system with an agent-based model, some agents represent social artefacts, and thus must simulate real-life behaviour. However, in many cases, rules that describe social phenomena, are not based on empirically tested, theoretical models, and agents display unrealistically simplistic behaviour (Jager & Janssen, 2003). This restricts the analysis with respect to social behaviour, and may even lead to an invalid system analysis. In earlier research it is suggested that gaming simulations can be used to improve the realism and diversity of agent behaviour. However, this application of games has not been examined extensively. This research aims to acquire insight in whether this application of games is possible and feasible. The central research question thereby is: To what extent can gaming contribute to the definition of realistic behavioural rules for agents in an agent-based model, within the context of modelling socio-technical systems? An extensive literature research shows several problems and challenges with agent-based modelling. These include fundamental problems with the currently used methods used for gathering information about realistic behaviour (i.e. interviews and literature research). Several characteristics of gaming can help to reduce some of these these challenges, providing theoretical evidence that there is a potential for synergy between the two methods. Based on a structural comparison of the methodological processes of agent-based modelling and gaming, it appears that there are several possibilities in which gaming can contribute to the definition of realistic behavioural rules of agents. In this thesis we elaborate on using gaming as a data collection tool. The gap between global knowledge about how agents behave and the implementation of precise rules in models is large. In case games can function as a valid data collection tool, the collected data can function as a basis for rules, which helps to overcome, or at least to reduce, design and formalization problems. When a game is used as a data collection tool, there are three basic requirements that must be met: one must be able to generate valid data, to measure the desired data, and to analyse the data. Several aspects with regard to fulfilling these goals, affect the validity and the costs of the data collection tool. Furthermore, choices within one design (game design, design data collection, or design data analysis), may have implications, direct or indirect, on other design choices, both within that design and in the other two. This interconnectedness makes the design process of the data collection tool as a whole very complex. Neither the game, nor the data collection method, nor the data analysis method is per definition leading in the decision which is the most suitable design. Whether, and how much the data collection tool can contribute to the definition of realistic behavioural rules, is very context dependent. The proposal for using games as a data collection tool, and the proposed design framework have been done solely on a theoretical basis. The development of a useful and feasible tool, however, should also have a decent practical basis. Therefore, this work should be seen as the first of many research projects on this topic. The lessons learned from the application of this tool can and should be used to improve the proposed design framework.SEPAMEnergy & IndustryTechnology, Policy and Managemen
Structuring flood insurance in the UK
No full textIn the winter of 2013-2014 the south of the UK (London, Oxford) experienced the heaviest rainfall since 1767. Evidence linking these kind of flood events to climate change has put pressure on the UK flood insurance system that is incapable of properly dealing with this kind of flood events. A proposed re-insurance system, FloodRe, is suggested to improve the UK flood insurance system, but lacks the needed risk management incentive to be a constructive solution to the problem. An agent-based model of a flood prone UK housing market area is developed and the working of FloodRe and flood protection measures are explored. Results from experiments run on the model show that the current setup of FloodRe does not affect the UK housing market other than making flood insurance premiums affordable. The proposed flood protection measures are effective but are not themselves affected by FloodRe in any way. It is recommended to do further research in using the information that FloodRe provides to incentivise flood risk management among persons and the government. In this way a FloodRe system can be set up that aids in keeping flood prone areas in the UK affordable and liveable.Systems Engineering, Policy Analysis and ManagementEnergy & IndustryTechnology, Policy and Managemen
The Incorporation of International Law in the Swiss Legal System
No full textThe paper examines the incorporation of international law into Swiss legal system. Under a realistic approach, founding its roots in the Italian School of International Law, the problematic and uniqueness of Swiss legal system is explained under an alternative dimension. The intention of the author is that of (re)conceptualizing the methodology of interpretation of relationship between international law and internal law through a realistic analyze of the phenomenon, based on the social origin and nature of international law. The principal accent is given to the necessary distinction between relationship and mechanisms of adaptation. Bringing the scientific debate on social binaries might help scholars and commentators to better identify the real object and purpose of the realistic approach
Creating a conceptual framework for a deeper understanding of evolving processes in socio-technical systems: Applied to the water services delivery system in rural areas of Uganda in an agent-based model design
No full textA conceptual framework is made to analyze evolving processes in socio-technical systems. Agent-based modeling is used to test the conceptual framework.Energy and IndustryTechnology, Policy and Managemen
Tipping Points in Community-Based Management: A design-science research approach to study Community-based Management of domestic rural water points in Sub-Saharan Africa
No full textTechnology, Policy and ManagementEngineering, Systems and Service
Achieving Sustainable Rural Water Services in Uganda: Collaborative Model-based Policy Analysis for Collective Reflection and Action
No full textIn this empirically-driven, practice oriented research, the rural water sector in sub-Saharan Africa is examined from a systems perspective. In the face of rapidly changing and uncertain futures, the need for policy makers and practitioners to identify and respond to the multiple, seemingly intractable problems that give rise to stagnating water services levels despite decades of national and international efforts to achieve universal water service coverage, has never been more pressing. The aim of the research is to establish a way to consistently conceptualise the dynamics among actors in multi-level, multi-actor socio-technical systems, involved in the implementation of national policies and strategies to deliver nationally determined water service levels. The domain of inquiry is rural water services in the Republic of Uganda. It was conducted under the auspices of the Triple-S action research programme in which the researcher took part as a team member in the period 2008-2014. This study seeks practical, actionable insights into the extent to which the complexity sciences, and in specific agent-based modelling, can provide a useful policy analysis and planning approach for examining promising policy, technological and learning mechanisms for achieving universal water services in a given context.Research Data and SoftwareEnergie and Industri
An ontology of Industrial Symbiosis: The design of a support tool for collaborative Industrial Symbiosis research with as test cases from Tianjin Economic Development Area and Kalundborg
No full textIndustrial Symbiosis (IS) in an inter-firm collaboration that delivers both economic and environmental benefits. IS can occur when there are local opportunities for the exchange of an underutilized resource, this means that the exchanged resource is often not a standard product. A non-standard product requires technical expertise and investments in processing equipment or other physical assets. Which in turn puts additional tension on the socio-economic decision making process, because of asset specificity. Thus systems with IS are complex systems, systems with an interplay between socio-economic behaviour and the technical network (Dijkema & Basson 2009). As a consequence, IS attracts scientists from multiple different disciplines. This might explain why there is not yet a widely shared understanding of self-organizing IS (Chertow & Ehrenfeld 2012). All big challenges society phases require inter-disciplinary collaboration. Finding a way to built inter-disciplinary knowledge without reducing the level of detail, is thus not only relevant to IS-research, but ever more important for society in general.Energy and IndustryTechnology, Policy and Managemen
Resilience policy. What it means, how do we build it, what tools can we use to understand it
No full textGovernments all over the world have been searching for ways to build resilience to a myriad of risks, which seem to intensify in frequency and potential impact – from the Covid-19 pandemic to climate change, from AI running loose to economic crises that defy our expectations and understanding. Many have embraced concepts and ideas from resilience thinking, and applied them to particular shocks and stressors, or even as a holistic framework for city resilience in face of multiple shocks and stressors. Thus, a new policy domain emerged – resilience policy. However, unlike other policy domains, such as environmental policy or health policy, it lacks a clear definition of goals, methods of analysis, and trade-offs. This is the gap this dissertationstarts to bridge.Energie and Industri
Resilient Industrial Systems: A Complex System Perspective to Support Business Decisions
No full textIndustrial systems increasingly need to become more resilient to developments in their environment. To take the right decisions and improve their resilience, those companies need insight into the effects of resilience-enhancing actions. A substantial part of those actions' effects follow from the adaptation of the focal company's environment in response to its actions. The current, predominantly inward focused, perspective used to assess actions cannot be used to capture those indirect effects of an action. Therefore, this thesis addresses how we can conduct a more comprehensive assessment of a company's actions that can enhance its resilience. This research develops and tests a novel combination of theoretical perspectives to execute such a comprehensive assessment. In five case studies, with increasing complexity along several variables, we develop simulation models to assess a variety of possible resilience-enhancing actions. The outcomes of the case studies indicate that our combination of theoretical perspectives, operationalized in our models, can indeed capture the indirect effects of the assessed actions, and that including those indirect effects substantially influences the performance of the focal company. With this approach, companies can assess their proposed actions more comprehensively, enabling them to take actions that improve their resilience to the increasing volatility in industrial systems.Energie and Industri
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