59,615 research outputs found
Service-oriented models for audiovisual content storage
No full textWhat are the important topics to understand if involved with storage services to hold digital audiovisual content? This report takes a look at how content is created and moves into and out of storage; the storage service value networks and architectures found now and expected in the future; what sort of data transfer is expected to and from an audiovisual archive; what transfer protocols to use; and a summary of security and interface issues
Inside and Outside Bounds: Threshold Estimates of the Phillips Curve
No full textThere have been several instances over the past 40 years when large movements in the unemployment rate have elicited little response in the inflation rate. Such instances, while casting doubt on the tradeoff implied by the linear Phillips curve, are also associated with large inflation forecasting errors. In principle, these movements are consistent with a Phillips curve relationship; they just require the curve to shift in the same direction as the unemployment rate. Econometric representations of the Phillips relationship usually incorporate factors that can cause the Phillips curve to shift over time. However, the literature has not yet provided a test of whether such factors are sufficient to explain the episodes of horizontal movement. In this paper, the authors test the explanatory power of a double threshold specification of the Phillips relationship against a simple linear specification, and compare dynamic and static out of sample forecasts of inflation across linear and double threshold specifications of the Phillips curve. The authors find that traditional shifters in the relationships are insufficient for characterizing the periods of horizontal movement, and that a double threshold specification makes significant improvements in the static and dynamic out of sample inflation forecasting performance of the Phillips curvPhillips Curve; Threshold Models; Inflation Forecasting
The South African Phillips Curve: How Applicable is the Gordon Model?
No full textIs there a Phillips curve relationship present in South Africa and if so, what form does it take? Traditionally the way to estimate the Phillips curve is merely to regress the change in the price level on a measure of the output gap (or the deviation of actual unemployment from the NAIRU). However, Gordon (1990:481-5) has argued that estimating the Phillips curve in this manner biases the estimated results. Instead, Gordon (1997; 1989) puts forward his so-called triangular model that controls for inertia effects, output level effects and rates-of-change (in output) effects. He applies the model to several European countries, the US and Japan and finds meaningful results. The question this paper poses is whether or not the triangular model also applies to South Africa. In estimating the Phillips curve for South Africa the paper also experiments with four versions of the output gap, based on four different methods to estimate long run output, including the standard Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter and the production function approach. There are several variants of the Phillips curve. The first, as estimated by Phillips (1958) himself, measures the relationship between wage inflation and unemployment. However, other versions consider the relationship between price inflation and unemployment or price inflation and output. This paper focuses on the latter, given the absence of quarterly unemployment data in South Africa, as well as the lack of a reliable and sufficiently long unemployment time series. The paper first presents an overview of literature on the Phillips curve and its estimation for South Africa and other countries. This is followed by the second section that considers the model to be estimated, the data as well as the discussion of the alternative measures of the output gap. The third section presents the estimated results followed by section four that contains the conclusion and a discussion of the policy implications.
The Phillips Curve in Australia
No full textIn this paper we discuss the development of Phillips curves in Australia over the forty years since Phillips first estimated one using Australian data. We examine the central issues faced by researchers estimating Australian Phillips curves. These include the distinction between the short and long-run trade-offs between inflation and unemployment, and the changing level of the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU), particularly in the 1970s. We estimate Phillips curves for prices and unit labour costs in Australia over the past three decades. These Phillips curves allow the NAIRU to change through time, and include a role for import prices and ‘speed-limit’ effects. The paper concludes by presenting an extended discussion of the changing role of the Phillips curve in the intellectual framework used to analyse inflation within the Reserve Bank of Australia over the past three decades.Phillips curve; inflation; unemployment; monetary policy
Letter from Hubert Phillips to American Civil Liberties Union of Northern California, August 4, 1942
No full textLetter from Hubert Phillips to American Civil Liberties Union of Northern California, enclosing checks for $57 from F. C. Kellogg, Arthur E. Geschke, Claus Bertelsen, and Hubert Phillips. The letter states that the checks represent "the contributions of about twenty-five people made at a dinner held here recently to consider the phases of the status of citizens of Japanese ancestry and is to be applied specifically to helping prosecute the case of Miss Mitsuye Endo. Mr. F. C. Kellogg of the Fowler High School faculty was the author of the idea and deserves the credit for raising the enclosed contribution."The ACLU-Northern California case file records contain legal documents and correspondence pertaining to the case Ex parte Mitsuye Endo (1944), in which the United States Supreme court unanimously ruled that the federal government could not indefinitely detain United States citizens who were loyal to the government. Files include documents related to the Gordon Hirabayashi Supreme Court case Hirabayashi v. United States
Is the Phillips Curve of Germany Spurious?
No full textA simple plot of seasonal adjusted quarterly data between the change of nominal wage rates and the unemployment rate for the German economy shows a picture similar to that by which Phillips was inspired to his famous discovery, that there is a long-term tendency of a negative, non-linear relationship coupled with minor deviations from this tendency, which form so-called loops. At first sight, the Phillips Curve of Germany comprises clusters of data points and movements between these clusters. In spite of the striking differences of these phenomena, a model with one regression equation is sufficient to explain the loops, the movements between the loops and the long-term tendency of the German Phillips Curve. It might well be that the German Phillips Curve and the corresponding regressions are spurious, but an allegedly missing co-integration of wage rate changes and unemployment rate is not the argument that could be drawn on to sustain this scepticism. On the contrary, both variables are co-integrated. To get a more detailed insight into the relationship, the two variables are split into a trend and a cyclical component by the help of the HP-filter. The results of regression analyses applied to the separated components support Phillips’ hypothesis of a negative relationship between wage rate changes and the unemployment rate.Wages, Unemployment, Phillips Curve
Non-stationary inflation and panel estimates of the n ew Keynesian Phillips curve for Australia
No full textThis paper uses a recent panel method of Russell and Banerjee (2008) to estimate the new Keynesian Phillips curve for Australia. Our estimates show that while the hybrid new Keynesian Phillips curve and backward looking conventional Phillips curve are well determined, estimates of the Phillips curve with the pure forward looking expectations are unsatisfactory.Panel data estimates, new Keynesian Phillips curve, Australia and Unit roots in the rate of inflation.
Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve
No full textThe ability of the New Keynesian Phillips curve to explain US inflation dynamics when official central bank forecasts (Greenbook forecasts) are used as a proxy for inflation expectations is examined. The New Keynesian Phillips curve is estimated on quarterly data spanning the period 1970Q1-1998Q2 against the alternative of the Hybrid Phillips curve, which allows for a backward-looking component in the price-setting behavior in the economy. The results are compared to those obtained using actual data on future inflation as conventionally employed in empirical work under the assumption of rational expectations. The empirical evidence provides, in contrast to most of the relevant literature, considerable support for the standard forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve when inflation expectations are measured using official inflation forecasts. In this case, lagged inflation terms become insignificant in the hybrid specification. The usefulness of real unit labor cost as the preferred proxy for real marginal cost in recent empirical work on the Phillips curve is confirmed by our results.Money demand; Inflation; Phillips curve; Real marginal cost; Real-time data; GMM estimation
Understanding the Flattening Phillips Curve
No full textPolicy-makers have recently noted an apparent flattening of the Phillips curve. The implications of such a change include that a positive output gap would be less inflationary, but the cost of reducing inflation, once established, would increase. This paper’s objective is to review the evidence and possible explanations for the flattening of the Phillips curve in the context of new-Keynesian economic theory. Using data for the United States and Australia, we find that the flattening is evident in the baseline ‘structural’ new-Keynesian Phillips curve. We consider a variety of reasons for this structural flattening, such as data problems, globalisation and alternative definitions of marginal cost, none of which is entirely satisfactory.Phillips curve; inflation
Louise Phillips scrapbooks
No full textTwo scrapbooks compiled by Louise Phillips, a University of Maryland Alumna. She graduated with a Bachelor's of Science in Early Childhood Education in 1960 and with an Med. in Curriculum and Instruction in 1991. Phillips was a Montgomery County public school teacher and is the author of children's books. In 1986 she made a documentary about her teaching experiences. The scrapbooks include statements of her philosophy on teaching, vacation photographs, and correspondence. Also included are her two books, The Bald Eagle's Flying Shadow: A Fourth of July Celebration and The First Snowflake of Winter
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