2,515 research outputs found
Keeping Public Debt Sustainable in an Equitable Way
No full textThe COVID-19 pandemic has claimed over 5 million lives thus far. This grim figure would have been higher still without the strong and timely fiscal support provided by governments around the globe, including support for health sector and the development and deployment of vaccines. The IMF has noted that “in 2020, fiscal policy proved its worth. The increasing public debt in 2020 was fully justified by the need to respond to COVID 19 and its economic, social, and financial consequences” (Gaspar, 2021). How to keep debt sustainable is becoming a policy imperative, made all the more challenging by the lingering effects of the pandemic, particularly on low-income groups. In this article we summarize our recent work on the distributional effects of past major epidemics in this century prior to COVID-19 and the role that fiscal support played in mitigating these effects (Furceri, Loungani, Ostry and Pizzuto, 2021a; 2021b). The policy message is that more inclusive and targeted fiscal policies are needed in coming years if governments wish to achieve public debt sustainability without exacerbating inequality
The Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Financial Globalization: Evidence from Macro and Sectoral Data
No full textWe take a fresh look at the aggregate and distributional effects of policies to liberalize international capital flows—financial globalization. Both country‐ and industry‐level results suggest that such policies have led on average to limited output gains while contributing to significant increases in inequality. The country‐level results are based on 228 capital account liberalization episodes spanning 149 advanced and developing economies from 1970 to the present. Difference‐in‐difference estimation using industry‐level data for 23 advanced economies suggests that liberalization episodes reduce the share of labor income, particularly for industries with higher external financial dependence, higher natural propensity to use layoffs to adjust to idiosyncratic shocks, and higher elasticity of substitution between capital and labor
Replication data for: "A Tie That Binds: Revisiting the Trilemma in Emerging Market Economies"
No full textObstfeld, Maurice, Ostry, Jonathan D., and Qureshi, Mahvash S., (2019) "A Tie That Binds: Revisiting the Trilemma in Emerging Market Economies." Review of Economics and Statistics 101:2, 279-293
Replication data for: "A Tie That Binds: Revisiting the Trilemma in Emerging Market Economies"
No full textObstfeld, Maurice, Ostry, Jonathan D., and Qureshi, Mahvash S., (2019) "A Tie That Binds: Revisiting the Trilemma in Emerging Market Economies." Review of Economics and Statistics 101:2, 279-293
Creative destruction during crises: An opportunity for a cleaner energy mix
No full textLockdowns resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic reduced overall energy demand but electricity generation from renewable sources was more resilient. While this partly reflects the trend increase in renewables, the empirical analysis presented in this paper highlights that recessions and crises result in a permanent, albeit small, increase in energy efficiency and in the share of renewables in total electricity. These effects are stronger in the case of advanced economies and when complemented with environment and energy policies—both market-based measures such as taxes on pollutants, trading schemes and feed-in-tariffs, as well as non-market measures such as emission and fuel standards and R&D investment and subsidies—to incentivize and hasten the transition towards renewable sources of energy
Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccine Rollouts and Their Effects on Health Outcomes
No full textBACKGROUND: Vaccination against the coronavirus disease (SARS-CoV-2) is understood to be the key way out of the COVID-19 pandemic. Limited evidence exists on the determinants of vaccine rollouts and their health effects at the country level. OBJECTIVE: Examine the determinants of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts and their effects on health outcomes. METHODS: Ordinary least squares regressions with standard errors clustered at the country level for Cross-section and Panel daily data of vaccinations and various health outcomes (new COVID-19 cases, fatalities, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions) for an unbalanced sample of about 200 countries during the period 16 December 2020 to 20 June 2021. RESULTS: We find evidence that: (i) early vaccine procurement, domestic production of vaccines, the severity of the pandemic, a country’s health infrastructure, and vaccine acceptance are significant determinants of the speed of vaccination rollouts; (ii) vaccine deployment significantly reduces new COVID-19 infections, Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admissions, and fatalities, and is more effective when coupled with stringent containment measures, or when a country is experiencing a large outbreak; and (iii) COVID-19 cases in neighboring countries can lead to an increase in a country’s domestic caseload, and hamper efforts in taming its own local outbreak. CONCLUSIONS: By providing an early broad overview of the quantitative empirical estimates of the determinants of vaccine rollouts and the effects of COVID-19 vaccines, our paper can help policymakers make informed decisions about local and global distributions of vaccines, as well as related policy tools, such as containment measure. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40258-022-00757-6
Shipping costs and inflation()
No full textThe Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted global supply chains, leading to shipment delays and soaring shipping costs. We study the impact of global shipping costs—measured by the Baltic Dry Index (BDI)—on domestic prices for a large panel of countries during the period 1992–2021. We find that spikes in the BDI are followed by sizable and statistically significant increases in import prices, PPI, headline, and core inflation, as well as inflation expectations. The impact is similar in magnitude but more persistent than for shocks to global oil and food prices. The effects are more muted in countries where imports make up a smaller share of domestic consumption, and those with inflation targeting regimes and better-anchored inflation expectations. The results are robust to several checks, including an instrumental variables approach in which changes in shipping costs are instrumented with an indicator of closures of the Suez Canal
The Economic Effects of COVID-19 Containment Measures
No full textThis paper examines the economic effects of COVID-19 containment measures using daily global data on containment measures, infections, and economic activity indicators, such as Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) emissions, international and domestic flights, energy consumption, maritime trade, and mobility indices. Results suggest that containment measures had a significant impact on economic activity-equivalent to about a 10 percent loss in industrial production over 30 days following their implementation. Easing of containment measures results in an increase in economic activity, but the effect is lower (in absolute value) to that of tightening. Fiscal measures used to mitigate the crisis were effective in partly offsetting these costs. We also find that school closures and cancellation of public events are among the most effective measures in curbing infections and are associated with low economic costs. Other highly effective measures like workplace closures and international travel restrictions are among the costliest in economic terms
The effects of COVID-19 vaccines on economic activity
No full text: This paper empirically examines the economic effects of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts using a cross-country daily database of vaccinations and high-frequency indicators of economic activity-nitrogen dioxide (NO2) emissions, carbon monoxide (CO) emissions, and Google mobility indices-for a sample of 46 countries over the period December 16, 2020 to June 20, 2021. Using surprises in vaccines administered, we find that an unexpected increase in vaccination per capita is associated with a significant increase in economic activity. We also find evidence for nonlinear effects of vaccines, with the marginal economic benefits being larger when vaccination rates are higher. Country-specific conditions play an important role, with lower economic gains if strict containment measures are in place or if the country is experiencing a severe outbreak. Finally, the results provide evidence of spillovers across borders, highlighting the importance of equitable access to vaccines across nations
Are trade restrictions counter-cyclical? Evidence from a new aggregate measure
No full textWe present a new Measure of Aggregate Trade Restrictions (MATR) using data from the IMF's Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions. MATR is strongly correlated with existing measures of trade restrictiveness but more comprehensive in terms of country and time coverage. Our measure is available for an unbalanced sample of up to 157 countries during 1949-2019. We use our new MATR to re-examine how trade restrictiveness varies with the business cycle. Our results confirm that trade restrictions are typically a cyclical but there is an important difference across income groups: aggregate trade restrictions are a-cyclical in advanced economies but are counter-cyclical in EMDEs, especially in response to increases in unemployment.(c) 2023 The Society for Policy Modeling. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved
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