257 research outputs found
Weak form efficiency and pricing dynamics in a competitive globalised market setting
No full textEmploying data from the football betting market, we explore the impact of institutional structure on price-setting in speculative markets and the extent to which the biases induced by such factors might cause prices to deviate from fundamental values. In Chapter 1, we review the literature on football betting markets with regards to the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) and find that despite sporadic evidence of pricing anomalies, more consistent and persistent evidence of exploitable betting opportunities is required for the EMH to be rejected.In Chapter 2, we investigate the favourite-longshot bias in the bookmaker market and find that the bias is persistent over a long period of time and related to the parity of the league. A traditional price-setting bookmaker is willing to pay a premium to stimulate overall bettor demand in a competitive market, by setting generous odds on favourites to attract customers. In leagues with more parity among teams, the apparent bias is reduced as the market requires less intervention on the part of the bookmaker.Heterogeneity in bookmaker operations and price-setting is the focus of Chapter 3. We categorize bookmakers as either position-takers or book-balancers. Position-takers operate a high-margin, low-turnover business model, rarely adjust their odds, and actively eschew informed traders. Book-balancers frequently change their prices, and operate under the alternative, high-turnover, low-margin strategy. Sophisticated traders are not restricted at book-balancing bookmakers, and as such, odds movements at position-takers lag converge in the direction of the odds at book-balancers. We conclude that the sophisticated traders aid the price discovery process at the book-balancing bookmakers, which leads the market to efficiency.Finally, in Chapter 4 we examine instances of significant dispersion between the two types of bookmakers and show that the generation of positive returns is theoretically possible. However, closer investigation of these finding reveals that market-makers’ odds are efficient predictors of event outcomes and therefore, the opportunity to generate profit is provided by biases in position-takers’ pricing. Such biases could either be intentional for the purpose of attracting customers or the result of such bookmakers’ odds lagging behind in reflecting upcoming information. In all cases, such bookmakers are very likely to pose restrictions successful traders and therefore, the exploitation of the documented anomaly is probably infeasible.<br/
Subjective judgement vs. market idiosyncasies: exploring influences on the favourite longshot bias in European betting markets
No full textA dataset of 55,880 football events is analyzed to explore the favourite longshot bias in the bookmaker betting market. Limited dependent variable modelling of game outcomes is employed to identify sources of variation in the observed bias. It is concluded that it is consistently expressed through time, but varies significantly across leagues. It is shown that the bias is caused by bookmakers offering better odds for popular bets in order to increase their customer basis. Finally, it is proved that league specific fundamental information causes variation in the magnitude of the bias
Biologically inspiring robot navigation by exploiting optical flow patterns
No full textIn this paper a novel biologically inspired method is addressed for the robot homing problem where a robot returns to its home position after having explored an a priori unknown environment. The method exploits the optical flow patterns of the landmarks and based on a training data set a probability is inferred between the current snapshot and the snapshots stored in memory. Optical flow, which is not a property of landmarks like color, shape, and size but a property of the camera motion, is used for navigating a robot back to its home position. In addition, optical flow is the only information provided to the system while parameters like position and velocity of the robot are not known. Our method proves to be effective even when the snapshots of the landmarks have been taken from varying distances and velocities
Depth Computation Using Optical Flow and Least Squares
No full textDepth computation in robotics is an important step towards providing robust and accurate navigation capabilities to a mobile robot. In this paper we examine the problem of depth estimation with the view to be used in parsimonious systems where fast and accurate measurements are critical. For this purpose we have combined two methods, namely optical flow and least squares in order to infer depth estimates between a robot and a landmark. In the optical flow method the variation of the optical flow vector at varying distances and velocities is observed. In the least squares method snapshots of a landmark are taken from different robot positions. The results of the two methods show that there is a significant increase in depth estimation accuracy by combining optical flow and least squares
Towards Optical Flow-based Robotic Homing
No full textThis paper presents a novel biologically-inspired approach for tackling the problem of robot homing. In our method the only information employed is optical flow. Optical flow, which is not a property of landmarks like colour, shape, and size but a property of the camera motion, is used for localising an autonomous robot in a priori unknown environment. Our method exploits the optical flow ‘fingerprint’ of landmarks caused by the motion of the robot in the environment. For this purpose, we have developed a training algorithm that estimates the probability of observing the same landmark from varying distances and velocities. Our method promises to be computationally efficient and inexpensive. The simulation results we present show the validity of our methods
Depth Estimation for Autonomous Robot Navigation: A Comparative Approach
No full textDepth estimation has long been a fundamental problem both in robotics science and in computer vision. Various methods have been developed and implemented in a large number of applications. Despite the rapid progress in the field the last few years, computation remains a significant issue of the methods employed. In this work, we have implemented two different strategies for inferring depth, both of which are computationally efficient. The first one is inspired by biology, that is optical flow, while the second one is based on a least squares method. In the first strategy, we observe the length variation of the optic flow vectors of a landmark at varying distances and velocities. In the second strategy, we take snapshots of a landmark from different positions and use a least squares approach to estimate the distance between the robot and a landmark. An evaluation of the two different strategies for various depth estimations has been deployed and the results are presented in this paper
New entry, strategic diversity and efficiency in soccer betting markets: the creation and suppression of arbitrage opportunities
No full textWe find that prices offered by competing bookmakers within the same quote-driven soccer (football) betting market provide arbitrage opportunities. However, the management practices of bookmakers prevent informed bettors exploiting these in practice. We identify two groups of bookmakers, ‘position-takers’ and ‘book-balancers.’ Position-takers alter their odds infrequently, while actively restricting informed traders. Book-balancers actively manage inventory by adjusting odds, and place few restrictions on their customers. We identify 545 arbitrage portfolios, and find that around 50% would require a bet on the favourite at the position-taking bookmaker. The management practices of position-takers generally prevent these opportunities being exploited in practice
New entry and strategic group emergence in the soccer betting market: pricing behaviours, group interaction and efficiency implications
No full textThe arrival of online trading in European football betting markets has brought significant structural change to the sector in recent years, with the emergence of two strategic groups of bookmakers, characterised by distinctive operating behaviours. We examine the impact on market efficiency of interactions between these two groups, by comparing 51,000 individual odds offered by leading bookmakers at nine separate points on game outcomes, across 2,132 games in six European leagues. This longitudinal analysis reveals that interactions between these groups enable information to be transmitted from informed bettors to market prices, thereby increasing market efficiency
Data Set of PLOS Computational Paper PCOMPBIOL-D-18-02181R1
No full textFigures Data of PLOS Computational paper:Modeling of the axon plasma membrane structure and its effects on protein diffusionAuthors: Yihao Zhang, Anastasios V. Tzingounis, and George LykotrafitisCorresponding Author: George Lykotrafitis, Ph.D.University of ConnecticutStorss, CT UNITED STATES</div
The state of modern Greek language as spoken in Victoria
No full textDeposited with permission of the author. © 1986 Dr. Anastasios TamisThis thesis reports a sociolinguistic study, carried out between 1981 and 1984, of the state of the Modern Greek (MG) language in Australia, as spoken by native-speaking first-generation Greek immigrants in Victoria. Particular emphasis is given to the analysis of those characteristics of the linguistic behaviour of these Greek Australians which can be attributed to the contact with English and to other environmental, social and linguistic influence. (For complete abstract open document
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