1,720,973 research outputs found
Coûts Économiques des Conflits Civils : Le Cas du Burundi
Get PDFCette étude examine les effets des épisodes de conflits civils au Burundi sur sa
performance économique. L'étude applique la méthode de régression en utilisant
l'analyse des limites extrêmes, et la méthode du contrôle synthétique. Nos principaux
résultats indiquent que : (i) de 1970 à 2015, les conflits civils ont, en moyenne, réduit
la croissance économique de 4 points de pourcentage par année de conflit ; (ii) la
guerre civile de 1993-2003 a coûté à chaque Burundais entre 1 290 et 1 520 dollars et
entre 8 et 10 milliards de dollars à l'ensemble du pays ; (iii) le dernier conflit civil de
2015 a été relativement coûteux, ayant réduit la croissance économique de 8,9 points
de pourcentage par rapport à son contrefactuel. Ces résultats soulignent la nécessité
de consolider la paix afin d'éliminer la fragilité et de parvenir à un développement
économique à long terme
Tax-and-spend, spend-and-tax or fiscal synchronization ? Evidence from Burundi, pp. 170-195
No full textThis paper applies Granger Causality Tests based on Toda-Yamamoto procedure and VECM framework, to detemune the relationship between Government Spending and Gov,ernment Taxes in Burundi using recent monthly data during the period 1996:1-2009:3. The empirical analysis discovered a firm positive
unidirectional causality from Government Tax to Gov,ernment spending, supporting hence the Friedtnan's (1978) version of Tax- and-Spend Hypothesis for Burundi. The empirical findings suggest therefore that, in Burundi, unsustainable budget deficits can be mitigated by policies that cut government taxes
Analysis of Capital Flight from Burundi
No full textBurundi has reportedly lost resources amounting to 10.2% of gross domestic product
to capital flight, on average, over the period 1985–2013. Given the episodes of political
instability and poor governance that have characterized Burundi’s landscape in the past
decades, an institutional analysis of capital flight is undertaken and some instances of
embezzlement of public funds reviewed in this study. Data analysis of the main trends
of capital flight is also undertaken. In addition, this study examines the drivers of capital
flight from Burundi. The estimation results seem to be sensitive to the capital flight
measurement used, but in general they suggest that external debt, political instability and
wars, as well as exports, are the main drivers of capital flight from Burundi. To discourage
capital flight, the findings of this study suggest that Burundi should promote peace and
political stability. In addition, more responsibility, transparency and accountability are
required from the Government of Burundi in managing external debt. Moreover, some
actions are needed to reduce trade misinvoicing, which is a major channel of capital
flight from Burundi
Magnitude and Determinants of Trade Mis-invoicing in Burundi
No full textThe study examines trade mis-invoicing at both aggregated and disaggregated levels by major trading partners, and by major export and import commodities. Aggregated trade mis-invoicing and disaggregated trade mis-invoicing by major trading partners are computed using DOTS database of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over the period 1970‒2019. Disaggregated trade mis invoicing by major trading commodities is computed using UN-COMTRADE database over the period 1993‒2019. The study shows that the most occurring practices in trade mis-invoicing are export under-invoicing and import over invoicing. Exports of Burundi to most of its major trading partners are found to 2 Policy Brief No.813 be under-invoiced, while imports of Burundi from its major trading partners are in general over-invoiced. The major trading commodities considered are found to be affected by trade mis-invoicing to a great extent. Moreover, an empirical analysis of the determinants of those two common practices of trade mis-invoicing indicates that financial incentives through tax fraud, civil conflicts, governance, capital account openness, the parallel market premium, and the real exchange rate, are the main determinants of export under-invoicing and import over-invoicing. Drivers of trade mis-invoicing at product level were also analysed for some major export and import commodities. The main product-specific factors of trade mis-invoicing are found to be the parallel market premium, the real exchange rate, governance, and civil conflicts. The study's findings suggest that reducing political instability, having a more open capital account, improving governance, as well as reducing taxes and duties, could be ways to reduce the extent of trade mis-invoicing in Burundi. In addition, more effort is needed in ensuring systematic and transparent reporting of international trade transactions
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