1,721,044 research outputs found
Simulation-Based Sensitivity Analysis for Matching Estimators
No full textThis article presents a Stata program (sensatt) that implements
the sensitivity analysis for matching estimators proposedb y Ichino, Mealli and
Nannicini (2007). The analysis simulates a potential confounder in order to assess
the robustness of the estimatedtrea tment effects with respect to deviations
from the Conditional Independence Assumption (CIA). The program makes use
of the commands for propensity-score matching (att*) developed by Becker and
Ichino (2002). An example is given by using the National SupportedW ork (NSW)
demonstration, widely known in the program evaluation literature
Non ci resta che crescere
No full textPerché in Italia, da oltre un decennio, si fa un gran parlare di riforme finendo per fare poco o nulla? La risposta è apparentemente semplice: i potenziali vincitori non hanno voce presso partiti e parti sociali, mentre i potenziali sconfitti sanno bene come far pesare la loro influenza. Eppure, mai come in questa fase storica, i costi delle mancate riforme si fanno avvertire. L’Italia è un paese a rischio di «dolce declino», che ha smesso di crescere per la sua incapacità di adattare un modello di sviluppo e d’intervento pubblico nell’economia. Dal welfare al fisco, dalle liberalizzazioni alla scuola, alcuni esperti prendono di petto, con rigore e passione civile, quattro domande. Che cosa si può fare subito (e a costo zero) per rimettere in moto l’economia italiana? Che cosa nell’arco di due legislature? Quali interessi si oppongono alle riforme e come arginarli (o compensarli)? Quali interessi avrebbero tutto da guadagnare e come mobilitarli? I tempi sono maturi perché ci si ponga l’obiettivo di passare dalle parole ai fatti, scommettendo sul consenso di quanti pagano i costi del mancato dinamismo, a partire da interessi diffusi, giovani, donne e neoborghesia del capitale umano
Il decollo del lavoro interinale in Italia
No full textIl presente articolo riordina l'evidenza empirica disponibile sulla fase di decollo del lavoro
interinale nel mercato italiano, in seguito alla sua introduzione nel nostro ordinamento
ad opera della legge Treu (L.196/1997). Il dataset di una delle maggiori società di
fornitura di lavoro temporaneo, “Manpower Italia”, è utilizzato per rispondere a due
domande sui primi anni di diffusione dell’interinale (1998-2000). Qual è stato il livello
di utilizzazione di questo rapporto lavorativo nei diversi settori dell'economia italiana?
Il livello di utilizzazione dell’interinale è correlato con altre caratteristiche settoriali
come la volatilità della produzione? Per ovviare al fatto che le statistiche officiali non
indicano il settore di utilizzo dei lavoratori interinali, il dataset “Manpower” è combinato
con altre fonti statistiche, in modo da stimare il tasso di utilizzazione dell'interinale
nei diversi settori produttivi. L'impiego di questa forma di lavoro è positivamente correlato
con la volatilità della produzione. Inoltre, i settori che hanno utilizzato l'interinale in
misura maggiore sono anche quelli che hanno fatto registrare un calo della propria occupazione
permanente. Questi risultati confermano l'idea che il boom del lavoro interinale
in Italia sia stato essenzialmente guidato da fattori operanti dal lato della domanda.
L'articolo, infine, passa in rassegna gli studi empirici disponibili sulla successiva fase di
consolidamento dell'interinale (2001-04), in modo da abbozzare un bilancio sugli effetti
di questa forma di lavoro flessibile
The Determinants of Contract Length in Temporary Help Employment
No full textThis paper investigates the determinants of labor contract duration in
the case of temporary help employment. A simple theoretical model
is developed, in order to depict the choice of contract length made by
a firm that recruits temporary agency workers to deal with activity
peaks. Assuming that the hiring of a neww orker is associated with
selection and training costs, longer contracts have an option value in
face of a greater persistence of positive shocks. The model has two
testable implications. First, the degree of serial correlation in market
demand positively affects contract length. Second, the shortage of alternative
employment opportunities negatively affects contract length.
Using data on Italian temporary agency workers, both implications are
confirmed by the econometric analysis
So closed: political selection in proportional systems
No full textWe analyze political selection in a closed list proportional system where parties have strong gatekeeping power, which they use as an instrument to pursue votes. Parties face a trade-off between selecting loyal candidates or experts, who are highly valued by the voters and thus increase the probability of winning the election. Voters can be rational or behavioral. The former cares about the quality mix of the elected candidates in the winning party, and hence about the ordering on the party list. The latter only concentrate on the quality type of the candidates in the top positions of the party list. Our theoretical model shows that, to persuade rational voters, parties optimally allocate loyalists to safe seats and experts to uncertain positions. Persuading behavioral voters instead requires to position the experts visibly on top of the electoral list. Our empirical analysis, which uses data from the 2013 National election in Italy—held under closed list proportional representation—and fromindependent pre-electoral polls, is overall supportive of voters' rational behavior. Loyalists (i.e., party officers or former members of Parliament who mostly voted along party lines) are overrepresented in safe positions, and, within both safe and uncertain positions, they are ranked higher in the list
Persuasion and gender: experimental evidence from two political campaigns
Full text linkWe investigate differential responses by gender to competitive persuasion in political
campaigns. We implemented a survey and a field experiment during two mayoral elections in Italy. Eligible voters were exposed to a positive or negative campaign by an opponent. The survey experiment used on-line videos and slogans. The field experiment used door-to-door canvassing. In both experiments, gender differences emerge. Females vote more for the opponent and less for the incumbent when exposed to positive—as opposed to negative—campaigning. Males do the opposite. These differences cannot be explained by gender identification, ideology, or other voters’ observable attributes
Assessing Economic Liberalization Episodes: A Synthetic Control Approach
No full textWe use a transparent statistical methodology for data-driven case studies---the synthetic control method---to investigate the impact of economic liberalization episodes on the pattern of real GDP per capita in a worldwide sample of countries. Economic liberalization is measured by a broadly defined and widely used indicator that captures the scope of the market in the economy, mainly in terms of openness to international markets. The applied methodology compares the post-liberalization GDP trajectory of treated (open) economies with the trajectory of a convex combination of similar but untreated (closed) economies, controlling for time-varying unobservables. We find that opening up the economy had a positive effect in most regions that we can analyze in our framework, but more recent liberalizations, in the 1990s and mainly in Africa, had no significant impact on income per capita
Tying your enemy's hands in close races: The politics of federal transfers in Brazil
Full text linkThis paper uses a quasi-experimental strategy to disclose utterly political reasons behind the allocation of intergovernmental transfers in a federal state. We apply a regression discontinuity design in close elections to identify the effect of political alignment on federal transfers to municipal governments in Brazil. We find that municipalities where the mayor is affiliated with the coalition of the Brazilian President receive larger (discretionary) infrastructure transfers by about 40% in pre-election years. This effect is mainly driven by the fact that the federal government penalizes municipalities run by mayors from the opposition coalition who won by a narrow margin, thereby tying their hands for the next election
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