69 research outputs found
Modelling International Tourism Demand and Uncertainty in Maldives and Seychelles: A Portfolio Approach
No full textMaldives and Seychelles in the Indian Ocean are small island tourism economies (SITEs), both of which have relatively small populations, territorial sizes, land area and narrow productive bases. The two SITEs are surrounded by vast ocean and have an overwhelming reliance on international tourism for economic development. Variations in international tourist arrivals to these 2 SITEs have been affected by unanticipated oil shocks, natural disasters, crime and global terrorism, among others. An accurate assessment of the variations in international tourist arrivals, particularly the conditional volatility, is essential for policy and marketing purposes. The conditional mean and conditional variance of the weekly international tourist arrivals to Maldives and Seychelles from 1 January 1994 to 31 December 2003 for the 5 main tourist source countries are modelled. Multivariate models of uncertainty are estimated and tested. An assessment and interpretation of the estimates are made for policy makers and tour operators to reach optimal decisions on the basis of a portfolio approach to international tourism demand. The paper assesses 4 sets of country spillover effects between Maldives and Seychelles, namely: (i) the own country effects for Maldives and Seychelles; (ii) the country spillover effects from the remaining four countries within each of Maldives and Seychelles; (iii) the own country spillover effects between Maldives and Seychelles; and (iv) the cross-country spillover effects between Maldives and Seychelles. The empirical results for both Maldives and Seychelles are discussed in terms of each of these components.Small island tourism economies, Weekly international tourist arrivals, Uncertainty, Conditional volatility, Country spillover effects Acknowledgements: The first author wishes to acknowledge the financial support of the School of Accounting, Finance and Economics, Edith Cowan University. The second author is most grateful for the financial support of the Australian Research Council.
Modelling International Tourism Demand and Volatility in Small Island Tourism Economies
No full textSmall Island Tourism Economies (SITEs) vary in their size, land area, location, narrow resource bases, economic development, an overwhelming reliance on tourism, and a consistent inflow of foreign direct investment for economic growth. SITEs differ in their ethnic diversity, political systems, economic and environmental vulnerability, ecological fragility, and the risks facing investors. Owing to natural disasters, ethnic conflicts, crime, and the threat of global terrorism, there have been dramatic changes in the arrivals of international tourists to SITEs. These variations in international tourism demand to SITEs, particularly the conditional variance (or volatility) in international tourist arrivals, have not previously been analysed in the tourism research literature. An examination of the conditional volatility of international tourist arrivals is essential for policy analysis and marketing purposes. This paper models the conditional mean and conditional variance of the logarithm of monthly international tourist arrivals and the growth rate (or log-difference) in the monthly international tourist arrivals for six SITEs, namely Barbados, Cyprus, Dominica, Fiji, Maldives, and Seychelles. Diagnostic checks of the regularity conditions of the logarithm of monthly international tourist arrivals and their growth rates suggest that the estimated univariate models of trends and volatility are statistically adequate. Therefore, the estimated models are appropriate for purposes of public and private sector management of tourism. Acknowledgements: The authors wish to thank Felix Chan, Suhejla Hoti, Christine Lim and two anonymous referees for helpful comments and suggestions. The first author is most grateful for a UWA Research Grant, and the second author wishes to acknowledge financial support of Australian Research Council.Island economies, small size, vulnerability, international tourism demand, arrival rate, trends, volatility, time-varying conditional variance, GARCH, GJR, asymmetry, shocks, regularity conditions
Managing Value-at-Risk in Daily Tourist Tax Revenue for the Maldives
No full textInternational tourism is the principal economic activity for Small Island Tourism Economies (SITEs). There is a strongly predictable component of international tourism, specifically the government revenue received from taxes on international tourists, but it is difficult to predict the number of international tourist arrivals, which determines the magnitude of tax revenue receipts. A framework is presented for risk management of daily tourist tax revenues for the Maldives, which is a unique SITE because it relies almost entirely on tourism for its economic and social development. As international tourism receipts are significant financial assets to the economies of SITEs, the time-varying volatility of international tourist arrivals and their growth rate is analogous to the volatility (or dynamic risk) in financial returns. The volatility in the levels and growth rates of daily international tourist arrivals are investigated in the paper. This paper provides a template for the future analysis of earnings from international tourism, particularly tourism taxes for SITEs, discusses the direct and indirect monetary benefits from international tourism, highlights tourism taxes in the Maldives as a development financing phenomenon, and provides a framework for discussing the design and implementation of tourism taxes. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the analysis developed in this paper can be used by the Maldivian Government in determining monetary and fiscal policy, by creditors to evaluate the risks associated with providing financial support to the Maldives, and by resort operators to decide whether to expand or contract their operations. Acknowledgements: The first author acknowledges the financial support of the Australian Research Council, the second author wishes to acknowledge a UWA Research Fellowship, and the third author is most grateful for the financial support of an International Postgraduate Research Scholarship and University Postgraduate Award at UWA. The authors wish to thank the Editor, two referees, Clive Granger, Matteo Manera and Juerg Weber for helpful comments and suggestions. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Second International Conference on Tourism and Sustainable Development: Macro and Micro Economic Issues, Cagliari, Sardinia, Italy, September 2005.Small Island Tourism Economies (SITEs), international tourist arrivals, tourism tax, volatility, risk, Value-at-Risk (VaR), Sustainable Tourism@Risk (ST@R)
Ti?gri?s-Euphrates Basin and Iraq Hydrauli?c Structures
No full textSu, canlıların hayatlarını sürdürürken her türlü işlerinde ihtiyaç duydukları temel bir maddedir. İnsanlığın ilk devrelerinde sadece içme-kullanma, tarım ve ulaşım için önemli görülen suyun günümüzde gelişen teknoloji ve şehirleşmeye bağlı olarak önemi çok daha fazla artış göstermektedir. İnsan faaliyetlerinin kaçınılmaz bir sonucu olarak suyun sadece kullanımı değil kullanılmış suların bile tekrar kullanımı gündeme gelmektedir. Doğduğu ülkeden başka bir ülkeye geçen akarsular “Sınır Aşan Su” olarak isimlendirilir. Bu akarsulardan bazıları yer yer iki ülke arasında sınır hattını oluşturarak “Sınır Oluşturan Su” işlevini görmektedir. Sınır aşan ve sınır oluşturan çok uluslu akarsu havzalarının sayısı 200’ün üzerinde olup kıta alanlarının yaklaşık yarıya yakın kısmını kaplamaktadır. Bunlardan birçoğu iki veya daha fazla ülke arasında geçerli ve üzerinde ittifakla anlaşma sağlanmış kanunlar olmadan kullanılmaktadır. BM tarafından yayınlanmış olan “Uluslararası Akarsu Havzaları” listesinde Fırat ve Dicle nehirleri ve bu nehirlerin yan kollarının oluşturduğu Su Toplama Havzası da yer almaktadır. 17 alt havzadan oluşan Fırat ve Dicle’nin su toplama havzasının alanı bu listede 884.000 km2 olarak verilmektedir. Fırat ve Dicle akarsuları, Türkiye’nin sınır-aşan suları olup gerek bulundukları bölgede taşıdıkları önem, gerekse gösterdikleri çeşitlilik açısından, fevkalade ilgi çekici, üzerlerinde kamu kuruluşları, bilim ve siyaset mensuplarınca, başka ülkelerdeki durumlarla da kıyaslamalar dâhil, daha kapsamlı inceleme ve araştırma yapılması gereken akarsu havzalarıdır. Fırat, Dicle Havzasında Türkiye, Irak ve Suriye ortak çalışma ve bilgi paylaşımı gerçekleştirmedikleri sürece havzaya komşu olmayan ülkelerin (İsrail) dikkati ve su kullanım isteği ön plana çıkacaktır. İvedilikle Suriye ve Irak’ta bulunan siyasi belirsizliklerin ve kargaşanın yok edilmesinden sonra ortak çalışmalar hızlı bir şekilde başlamalıdır. Bu çalışmada, Fırat ve Dicle akarsularının Ortadoğu ülkeleri açısından önemi dikkate alınarak Irak Cumhuriyeti sınırları içerisindeki durumu ele alınmaktadır. Irak’ta bu akarsular ve kolları üzerine yapılmış olan baraj, bağlama ve suyolları hakkında bilgi verilmektedir. Sınır aşan akarsu havzası (Uluslararası Havza) olan Fırat, Dicle havzasında, özellikle tüm toprakları bu havzada bulunan Irak Cumhuriyetinin Suriye ve Türkiye’nin ortaklaşa yapması gereken çalışmalar da sonuç kısmında verilmektedir.Water is a basic substance that is need by living creatures for all kinds of works while they are maintaining their lives. Importance of water that was seen as important for only drinking-using, agriculture and transportation in the early period of humankind, increases much more in connection with developing technology and urbanization. As an inevitable result of human activities, not only use of water but also re-use of used water is brought to agenda. Rivers, flowing from countries in which their sources are located to another country, are called "Transboundary Water". Some of these rivers act as "Border Water" by creating border line between two countries from place to place. There are more than 200 international border water and transboundary river basins and they cover almost half of continent areas. Many of them are used with laws that are applicable between two or more countries and that are not unanimously agreed on. "International River Basins" list which was published by UN, also includes Drainage Basin formed by Euphrates and Tigris rivers and their tributaries. Area of Euphrates and Tigris rivers' drainage basin which consists of 17 sub-basins, is given as 884.000 km2 in this list. Euphrates and Tigris rivers are Turkey's transboundary water and they are river basins which are exceptionally interesting in terms of both their importance in their region and their diversity and should be analyzed and examined more comprehensively by public institutions, members of science and politics including comparisons with the situations in other countries. As long as Turkey, Iraq and Syria don't perform collaborative work and information sharing in Euphrates, Tigris Basin, attention and water use demands of countries (Israel) which are not neighbors of the basin will come into prominence. Collaborative works should begin immediately after eliminating political uncertainties and conflicts in Syria and Iraq urgently. In this study, situation of Euphrates and Tigris rivers in Republic of Iraq is discussed by considering their importance for Middle Eastern countries. Information is given about dams, connections and waterways constructed on these rivers and their tributaries in Iraq. Also works that should be jointly done in Euphrates, Tigris basin which is transboundry river basin (International Basin) by Turkey, Syria and especially Republic of Iraq whose entire territory is located on this basin, are given in the result part
An aggregate import demand function for Australia: a cointegration approach
No full textThis paper investigates the relationship among quantity of imports, relative import prices and real GDP in the aggregate import demand function for Australia during the period 1959Q3Ã’2006Q3. Testing for cointegration, we find these variables are not stationary but are cointegrated. The results are consistent across three different cointegration tests conducted, namely the Engle-GrangerÃŒs residual-based test, the Johansen and Juselius multivariate test and the Bounds Test. As only one cointegration vector is found, there is a unique long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables. In the long-run, the price elasticity is found to be close to unity and import demand is found to be fairly income elastic. The error correction model is used to investigate the dynamic behaviour of import demand. In the short-run, Australian import demand is both price and income inelastic. Price is more elastic than income in the short-run, indicating that it is the dominant determinant of Australian import demand in the short-run. Furthermore, the estimated error correction coefficient of 0.3090 suggests that the aggregated Australian import demand corrects from the previous periodÃŒs disequilibrium by 31% per quarter. That is, it takes approximately 10 months to fully realign any disequilibrium that occurs. This study provides the only assessment of Australian import demand including a precise estimate for the short-run relationship, especially an estimate of the short-run adjustment term. This information will provide further input to support policy decisions relating to the management of the Australian trade balance.Import demand, Cointegration, Error correction model Acknowledgements: The first author would like to acknowledge financial assistance from the School of Accounting, Finance and Economics at Edith Cowan University, Western Australia.
Bullous chickenpox: An unusual clinical variant of varicella
No full text[No abstract available]Abdulmalik A, 2006, MED PRIN PRACT, V15, P232, DOI 10.1159-000092188; CLOSE GC, 1981, LANCET, V2, P480; MELISH ME, 1973, J PEDIATR, V83, P1019, DOI 10.1016-S0022-3476(73)80539-6; SCHWARTZ RA, 1983, J AM ACAD DERMATOL, V9, P209, DOI 10.1016-S0190-9622(83)70130-1; WHITE GM, 1994, ARCH DERMATOL, V130, P110; YOSHIDA M, 1990, BRIT J DERMATOL, V123, P846, DOI 10.1111-j.1365-2133.1990.tb04206.x21
Quantifying the impact of COVID–19 preventive measures on traffic in the State of Qatar
No full textEver since the beginning of 2020, the mobility of people and goods all over the world has been extremely limited as a result of movement restrictions imposed by local authorities as part of several other efforts to stop the wide spread of COVID–19 pandemic. The Supreme Committee for Crisis Management in the State of Qatar adopted the policy of incremental preventive measures that were adjusted based on the pandemic status. These actions involved several restrictions, aiming a balance between reducing the pandemic spread and the typical daily activities disturbance. This paper assesses the impact of pandemic response measures on traffic mobility by quantifying the holistic impact of the incremental measures at different stages on traffic volumes and traffic safety. Daily traffic counts from 24 intersections were collected every 15-min for several days, representing the traffic before and after implementing each preventive measure. Besides, a screenline was used to represent the traffic entering and leaving the Central Business District (CBD) in the City of Doha. The results show that the daily traffic demand distribution over the course of day was not affected by those preventive measures. However, an overall demand reduction of 30% in baseline traffic was observed for all studied intersections and the screenline when all preventive measures were active. Moreover, the analysis of traffic violations and the total crashes indicated a drop of 73% and 37% respectively. The results from this assessment will assist decision and policy makers, and planners to prioritize traffic management actions for future needs. Further, the findings can also be utilized for mega–event traffic management in the post-COVID era, such as FIFA World Cup 2022 and 2030 Asian Games
An algorithm for power components measurement in a harmonic load rich system using digitized walsh function
No full textIdentification of source to sink relationship in deregulated power systems using artificial neural network
No full textThis paper suggests a method to identify the relationship of real power transfer between source and sink using artificial neural network (ANN). The basic idea is to use supervised learning paradigm to train the ANN. For that a conventional power flow tracing method is used as a teacher. Based on solved load flow and followed by power tracing procedure, the description of inputs and outputs of the training data for the ANN is easily obtained. An artificial neural network is developed to assess which generators are supplying a specific load. Most commonly used feedforward architecture has been chosen for the proposed ANN power transfer allocation technique. Almost all system variables obtained from load flow solutions are utilised as an input to the neural network. Moreover, log-sigmoid activation functions are incorporated in the hidden layer to realise the non linear nature of the power flow allocation. The proposed ANN provides promising results in terms of accuracy and computation time. The IEEE 14-bus network is utilised as a test system to illustrate the effectiveness of the ANN output compared to that of conventional methods
A novel method for reactive power allocation using modified nodal equations
No full textThis paper proposes a novel method to identify the reactive power transfer between generators and load using modified nodal equations. Based on the solved load flow solution and the network parameters, the method partitioned the Y-bus matrix to decompose the current of the load buses as a function of the generators' current and voltage. These decomposed currents are then used independently to obtain the decomposed load reactive power. The advantages of the proposed methodology are demonstrated by using a simple 3-bus system and the modified IEEE 30-bus system. The proposed methodology provides reasonable and acceptable results to reactive power transfer allocation
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