112,173 research outputs found
Purchasing Power Parity: Do Productivity Trends and Fiscal Policy Matter?
No full textPaper del Dipartimento di Economia dell'Università di Bresci
Modelling Monetary Trends in Italy Using Historical Data: the Demand for Broad Money 1861-1990
No full textPurchasing Power Parity and Real Exchange Rates: A Historical Perspective
No full textPaper del Dipartimento di Economia dell'Università di Glasgo
Gibson's paradox and policy regimes: a comparison of the experience in the US, UK and Italy
No full textThis paper compares the behaviour of long-term interest rates and prices in Italy, the UK and the USA, and seeks to shed light into what has become known as the ‘Gibson Paradox’. We compare the various theoretical explanations for the observed positive correlation of interest rates and prices in the USA and the UK. Using both regression and frequency domain techniques, we demonstrate that there is little evidence for the occurrence of the paradox in the case of Italy. The key conclusion of the paper is that the comparative evidence from these three countries supports a gold standard interpretation of the Paradox
Real Exchange Rates in The Long Run: Evidence from Historical Data
No full textin fase di referaggio presso una rivista internazional
A simple and flexible alternative to the Stability and Growth Pact deficit ceilings. Is it at hand?
No full textWe use a simple theoretical model of a monetary union where myopic discretionary fiscal policies generate excessive debt accumulation in steady state and inefficiently delayed debt adjustment following a shock. We advocate the adoption of a flexible debt targeting approach. By setting a long-term debt target and by raising the political cost associated to deviations from the optimal pace of debt reversal following a shock ̧ institutional design induces the fiscal policymaker to implement unbiased discretionary responses to shocks. Since the power to discipline fiscal policymakers rests in the hands of national voters, this outcome can be achieved by increasing the transparency of the decision-making process, where national voters understand the long-term consequences of fiscal policies. In practice, we call for clearer and more focused supervision tasks for the European Commission and for a more active role of national Parliaments whenever a disagreement arises between the Commission and a national governmen
Monetary and fiscal policy interactions over the cycle: some empirical evidence
No full textIntroduction The advent of EMU has raised a number of issues regarding the relative roles of fiscal and monetary policy. The Stability and Growth Pact (SGP henceforth) has imposed strict limits to countercyclical fiscal policies. Whilst the SGP is seen as a tool to avoid excessive debt accumulation (see Beetsma and Jensen 1999; Beetsma and Uhlig 1997), a number of authors (see Eichengreen and Wyplosz 1998, for example) fear that the SGP will hamper the operation of automatic stabilisers. However, there is relatively scarce evidence on the interaction of fiscal and monetary policies. Whilst considerable attention has been given to the way in which monetary authorities respond to macroeconomic conditions, much less empirical work has been done on fiscal policy. Even less attention has recently been paid to the interdependence between fiscal and monetary policy at the empirical level. The only notable exceptions are the studies by Mélitz (1997, 2000), Wyplosz (1999) and von Hagen, Hughes Hallett and Strauch (2001). For instance, using pooled data for a number of OECD economies, Mélitz (1997) finds that fiscal and monetary policy tend to move in opposite directions to each other. In other words, they are strategic substitutes. He also finds that a higher debt burden tends to trigger an adjustment process. The present chapter extends this work in a number of directions. We use VAR models (both conventional and Bayesian VARs) to characterise fiscal-monetary interactions rather than estimating monetary and fiscal reaction functions using single-equation methods
Macroeconomic shocks, structural change and real exchange rates: evidence from historical data
No full textWe present empirical evidence on the forces driving real exchange rates in the long-run. Using data from the US, UK and Italy across different exchange rate regimes, we find support for the hypothesis that productivity and fiscal shocks matter. However, in some cases fiscal shocks cause depreciations, likely triggered by the monetary accommodation of fiscal shocks. We also find that the traditional Harrod–Balassa–Samuelson effect of productivity on real exchange rates is reversed in some cases, which confirms the importance of the distributive sector in driving productivity gains
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