282 research outputs found
surge monthly maxima from GTSR
No full text<p>Monthly maxima surge values from GTSR (Muis et al., 2016). Selected tide gauge locations for Southeast Asia.</p>
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<p>Muis, S., Verlaan, M., Winsemius, H. C., Aerts, J. C. J. H., & Ward, P. J. (2016). A global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels. <em>Nature Communications</em>, <em>7</em>. http://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms11969</p>
STORM tropical cyclone wind speed return periods
No full textDatasets containing tropical cyclone maximum wind speed (in m/s) return periods, generated using the STORM datasets (see https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-020-0381-2). Return periods were empirically calculated using Weibull's plotting formula. The STORM_FIXED_RETURN_PERIOD dataset contains maximum wind speeds for a fixed set of return periods at 10 km resolution in every ocean basin. The STORM_FIXED_WIND_SPEED dataset contains return periods for a fixed set of maximum wind speeds at 10 km resolution in every ocean basin. The STORM_CITIES dataset contains return periods at fixed wind speeds and wind speeds at fixed return periods (on two seperate sheets), occurring within 100 km from a selection of 18 coastal cities. The STORM_ISLANDS contains return periods at fixed wind speeds and wind speeds at fixed return periods (on two seperate sheets), occurring within 100 km from the capital city of an island. We included the Small Island Developing States and a set of other islands.</span
Influence of El Niño Southern oscillation on global coastal flooding
No full textAnomalous atmosphere-ocean conditions in the tropical Pacific associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drive interannual variations in mean and extreme sea levels. Climate change may lead to more frequent extreme ENSO events in the future. Therefore, it is important to enhance our understanding of ENSO's influence on coastal flood impacts. We assessed ENSO’s influence on extreme sea levels using a global reanalysis of tides and storm surges. This allows for a full coverage of the global coastline from 1979 to 2014. A mean sea level component is added to account for steric effects. This results in a substantial improvement in the representation of the seasonal and interannual variability. Our results show significant correlations across the Pacific between ENSO and extreme sea levels (expressed as 95th annual percentiles), which is consistent with previous studies based on tide gauge observations. Average anomalies in the annual percentiles over El Niño years compared to neutral years show similar patterns. When examining total sea levels, results are largely statistically insignificant. This is because in many regions large tidal variability dominates over the other components. Combining sea levels with an inundation and impact model shows that ENSO has a significant but small effect on the number of people potentially exposed to flooding at the globally aggregated-scale. Our result demonstrate that a model-based approach allows for an assessment of the influence of ENSO on coastal flood impacts, and could be used to assess impacts of future changes in ENSO
Estimation of global tropical cyclone wind speed probabilities using the STORM dataset
No full textTropical cyclones (TC) are one of the deadliest and costliest natural disasters. To mitigate the impact of such disasters, it is essential to know extreme exceedance probabilities, also known as return periods, of TC hazards. In this paper, we demonstrate the use of the STORM dataset, containing synthetic TCs equivalent of 10,000 years under present-day climate conditions, for the calculation of TC wind speed return periods. The temporal length of the STORM dataset allows us to empirically calculate return periods up to 10,000 years without fitting an extreme value distribution. We show that fitting a distribution typically results in higher wind speeds compared to their empirically derived counterparts, especially for return periods exceeding 100-yr. By applying a parametric wind model to the TC tracks, we derive return periods at 10 km resolution in TC-prone regions. The return periods are validated against observations and previous studies, and show a good agreement. The accompanying global-scale wind speed return period dataset is publicly available and can be used for high-resolution TC risk assessments
Dependence between high sea-level and high river discharge increases flood hazard in global deltas and estuaries
No full textWhen river and coastal floods coincide, their impacts are often worse than when they occur in isolation; such floods are examples of ‘compound events’. To better understand the impacts of these compound events, we require an improved understanding of the dependence between coastal and river flooding on a global scale. Therefore, in this letter, we: provide the first assessment and mapping of the dependence between observed high sea-levels and high river discharge for deltas and estuaries around the globe; and demonstrate how this dependence may influence the joint probability of floods exceeding both the design discharge and design sea-level. The research was carried out by analysing the statistical dependence between observed sea-levels (and skew surge) from the GESLA-2 dataset, and river discharge using gauged data from the Global Runoff Data Centre, for 187 combinations of stations across the globe. Dependence was assessed using Kendall’s rank correlation coefficient () and copula models. We find significant dependence for skew surge conditional on annual maximum discharge at 22% of the stations studied, and for discharge conditional on annual maximum skew surge at 36% of the stations studied. Allowing a time-lag between the two variables up to 5 days, we find significant dependence for skew surge conditional on annual maximum discharge at 56% of stations, and for discharge conditional on annual maximum skew surge at 54% of stations. Using copula models, we show that the joint exceedance probability of events in which both the design discharge and design sea-level are exceeded can be several magnitudes higher when the dependence is considered, compared to when independence is assumed. We discuss several implications, showing that flood risk assessments in these regions should correctly account for these joint exceedance probabilities
STORM IBTrACS present climate synthetic tropical cyclone tracks
No full textDatasets consisting of 10,000 years of synthetic tropical cyclone tracks, generated using the Synthetic Tropical cyclOne geneRation Model (STORM) algorithm (see Bloemendaal et al, Generation of a Global Synthetic Tropical cyclone Hazard Dataset using STORM, in review). The dataset is generated using historical data from IBTrACS and resembles present-climate conditions. The data can be used to calculate tropical cyclone risk in all (coastal) regions prone to tropical cyclones.</span
STORM EC-Earth present climate synthetic tropical cyclone tracks
No full textDatasets consisting of 10,000 years of synthetic tropical cyclone tracks, generated using the Synthetic Tropical cyclOne geneRation Model (STORM) algorithm (see Bloemendaal et al, Generation of a Global Synthetic Tropical cyclone Hazard Dataset using STORM, in prep.). The dataset is generated using data the EC-Earth model and resembles present-climate conditions. The data can be used to calculate tropical cyclone risk in all (coastal) regions prone to tropical cyclones.</span
Understanding the child : A mental needs manual for caretakers in children’s homes
Full text linkGiving adequate care for children in children’s homes (we prefer the expression “children’s home” to “orphanage”, since there are few institutions where all the children are real orphans) is very demanding and difficult. Therefore, a child should not be placed in a children’s home unless it is impossible for his biological family to take care of him, and unless it is impossible to provide him with adoptive parents or a foster home. However, the reality is that a large number of children grow up in children’s homes. The aim of this manual is to contribute to the equipment of caregivers working in such institutions. It has been developed in an Asian context, but we hope that it can be useful also in other parts of the world. We believe the following to be true: What I hear, I forget. What I see, I remember. What I do, I know. What I discover, I use. Therefore, when teaching caregiving staff from this manual, we hope that the teachers will allow time for their students to reflect on, and when possible, discover themselves the principles of these teachings. Also, both practical skills and attitudes need to be demonstrated. For these reasons we hope that the content of this book will be passed on to the staff on an individual basis or in small groups, and in a practical way. Time and again we stress that children need individual attention and training. So do caregivers, to a certain extent, to adopt healthy attitudes and to develop their caregiving skills. The title “Understanding the child” has been chosen because we believe that understanding brings about love and compassion, the most important ingredients in child rearing. We have made our best to base the teaching on up-to-date research and literature. (This has also caused some of the content to be rather complicated and detailed.) However, it has been unavoidable to introduce information that is less objective and acknowledged. Whether you are a Buddhist, a Hindu, a Muslim, a Christian, an atheist or profess another faith or religion, we hope that you will find this book useful. The author himself is a Christian and finds much relevant information about child rearing in the Bible. However, all biblical references and examples are marked with an asterisk (*), to show those not interested what they can skip when reading. In this manner the rest of the text is free from religious content. Hopefully you will find the structure of this book logical. Firstly, to understand the child it is important to have some knowledge on child development (section 3). Secondly, we need to know about children’s rights and needs (section 4). Thirdly, it is time to study how children’s homes should be organised to prepare for these needs to be met (section 5). Fourthly, we will see how caretakers can fulfil the basic needs of children (section 6). In our view, this is the most important section of the book. Fifthly, there will be teachings on some common problems that children may face, particularly in residential care, and what you can do to help them out (section 7). It is very important to study section 6 carefully (The basics of child rearing) before you apply the principles given in section 7 (Some problems and what you can do). The structure of each chapter is simple: For most subjects there is a summary of the teaching, then the teaching itself, followed by some references to the Bible, marked* (Bible version: the New International Version if not otherwise stated). There will also be some suggestions to work tasks that can be carried out to improve the care of the children. Finally, main references have been listed. In some chapters we have included information that may be useful without being essential. Such information is printed in this size letters. To make the text more readable we have chosen to use “he” instead of “he/she” when referring to a child or another person. If anyone should wonder about this choice, it does not express any prejudice on our part. Also, as you have already noted, the author uses “we” (instead of “I”) to refer to himself. The word “reward” is often used instead of the technically more correct expression “reinforcement”, because the latter is a concept that is more difficult to explain and translate. The definitions of and difference between these concepts are found in chapter 7.3. Major changes have been made from the first edition (which has just been translated into the Myanmar language) to the second. The following chapters are new: 3.3 Development of school-age children, 6.6 Teaching problem solving, emotional regulation and friendship skills, 7.6 Some specific behavioural problems, 7.8 HIV and AIDS, 7.9 Some academic problems, 7.10 Problems related to natural functions, and 8.2 Resources. Except from 7.9 and 7.10, the content of these chapters is entirely new. We have also expanded chapter 6.5 considerably. Behavioural problems have been devoted four chapters (7.3-7.6) because of their frequency, and because of the importance of handling these problems in an appropriate way. Minor revisions and expansions have also been done for several of the other chapters
Compound flood potential from river discharge and storm surge extremes at the global scale
No full textThis dataset presents the results presented in Couasnon et al. (2019) - Measuring compound flood potential from river discharge and storm surge extremes at the global scale. For more information about the methods, please refer to the paper. This dataset was created using as input time series of discharge and maximum storm surge at river mouths globally from 1980 - 2014.
If using this data, please cite:
Couasnon, A., Eilander, D., Muis, S., Veldkamp, T. I. E., Haigh, I. D., Wahl, T., Winsemius, H. C., and Ward, P. J.: Measuring compound flood potential from river discharge and storm surge extremes at the global scale, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 489–504, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-489-2020, 2020.</p
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