11 research outputs found
NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF ULTIMATE CAPACITY OF STEEL PILE ANCHORAGE IN CONCRETE-FILLED STEEL BOX CONNECTION
No full textABSTRACT This paper presents the comparison of experimental and numerical analysis to determine ultimate capacity of steel pile anchorage in concrete filled steel box connection. In order to simulate the post peak behavior of the connection, a new equation for fracture energy of confined concrete is presented. The fracture energy equation is verified with more simple concrete filled steel tube cases and then installed in the FEM program. Based on the experimental results conclusion can be drawn that the load-deflection curve obtained from the simulation show good correlation with the experimental data
Content Based Image Retrieval Using Embedded Neural Networks with Bandletized Regions
No full textOne of the major requirements of content based image retrieval (CBIR) systems is to ensure meaningful image retrieval against query images. The performance of these systems is severely degraded by the inclusion of image content which does not contain the objects of interest in an image during the image representation phase. Segmentation of the images is considered as a solution but there is no technique that can guarantee the object extraction in a robust way. Another limitation of the segmentation is that most of the image segmentation techniques are slow and their results are not reliable. To overcome these problems, a bandelet transform based image representation technique is presented in this paper, which reliably returns the information about the major objects found in an image. For image retrieval purposes, artificial neural networks (ANN) are applied and the performance of the system and achievement is evaluated on three standard data sets used in the domain of CBIR
Folio
No full textNasir, M. Umar-Essay-Social Deterioration: A Direct Consequence of Work Dishonesty. pp. 1-2; Nisar Ahmed-Essay-Equality and Harmony. pp. 3-4; Shahzad Munawar-Essay-Importance of Ethics and Values. pp. 5-6; Akhtar, S. Mohsin-Father Abraham, have mercy upon us... pp. 7-12; Sobia Kiran-Essay-On Ethics. pp. 13-15; Irshad Ali Rana-Blood Menace. pp. 16-17; Arsalaan Naveed-Essay-The Seeing, See Little. pp. 18-19; Omer Javed Pal-Essay-Personal Values. pp. 20; Dr.Naseem Riaz-Essay-Of Plagiarism. pp. 21-22; Nawazish Ali-Essay-Kindness. pp. 23; Salman Rafi-Essay-Responsibility and Criticism. pp. 24; Zainab Mohsin-Essay-Psychological Problems Faced by Women in Pakistan. pp. 25; Omer Habib-The Invisible Cage. pp. 26; Arooj Waheed-A Quest for Identity. pp. 27; Zishan Fida-Essay-Importance of Education. pp. 29-30; Naqwi, Z. H.-Article-English in the Indian Sub-Continent. pp. 31-37; Johnson, Robert A.-Article-What is a Liberal Arts Education? pp. 38-43; Waseem Anwar-Article-In Search of... A Tradition and A Talent... of Our Own! pp. 44-47; Zeeshan Fida-Essay-Education, Development, and Individual Freedom. pp. 48; Riaz Akbar-Essay-The Age of Political Ideologies. pp. 49-50; Saba Shahid-Essay-The Power of Thinking. pp. 51-52; Usman Khalid-Essay-Technology Vs Nature. pp. 53; Imran Bashir-Essay-White Cane Safety Day. pp. 54-55; Amna Mehreen-Essay-Global Warming-Warning? pp. 56-57; Muhammad Asad-Essay-Who Would Save Our EARTH? pp. 58; Benjamin, S. E.-Essay-Where am I in the Midst of Chemistry? A Glimpse. pp. 59-60; Ashraf, C. M.-Essay-Nutrition, Food and Health in a Triangular Relationship. pp. 61-63; Pervez Hoodbhoy-Essay-Opening Minds with Science in Pakistan. pp. 64-66; Jahanzaib Aslam-Time. pp. 67; Fatima Arif-Man is not his own Worst Enemy. pp. 68-69; Zeeshan Zaighum-Setting the Beauty standards. pp. 70; Nouraiz Ahmed-Do you have Free Will? pp. 71-72; Asif Hussain-Essay-Reflections on the Hannah Arendt's Human Condition. pp. 73-74; Adil Aleem-Essay-Is Modern Civilization a Failure? pp. 75; Fraz Mehmood-To Love and To Work. pp. 76; Luqman Saeed-Essay-Individualistic Approach. pp. 77; Bilkis Hussain-Memories. pp. 78; Omer Habib-Creations Never Die. pp. 79; Haider F. Halim-Essay-No Country for Free Men. pp. 80-81; Sannah Waqar-Essay-Peer Pressure. pp. 82; Nasrullah K. Niazi-Why Not Politics. pp. 83; Zuhair Shabbir-Beauty. pp. 84; Nanees Athar-Essay-Post Colonialism. pp. 85; Salamat-Article-Forman Christian College and the Creation of Pakistan. pp. 87-89; Arif Qureshi-Article-The Quaid-e-Azam, The Titan of Statesmanship. pp. 90-98; Riaz Akbar-Essay-Twentieth Century: The Emancipating Century! pp. 99-100; Usman Zamurd-Essay-The Will of M.A. Jinnah. pp. 101; Inam Daudi-Essay-Universal Suffrage, Rightfully Wrong. pp. 102; Danish Islam-Memoirs of Public Transport. pp. 103-104; Rehan Mahmood-FC through My Eyes. pp. 105; Salman Rafi-Chemistry of Love. pp. 106-107; Sohaib Zaheer-The Effects of Overeating. pp. 108; Azzam Saddique-The Wannabe Syndrome. pp. 109-110; Cartoons. pp. 111-116; Ahmad Javed-Story-Death's Jester. pp. 117-118; Hafiz S. Rasheed-Story-Five Rupees Only. pp. 119-120; Azhar Naseer-Story-Faith. pp. 121-123; Zahra Zafar-Story-Loved you, loves you, will always love you. pp. 124-126; Faiqa-Story-Once I Had A Magic Carpet. pp. 127; Usman Khalid-Story-Waking Up. pp. 128; Syed Aun Iman-Story-The Stranger. pp. 129; Meerab Abdia-Story-Razia's Story. pp. 130-131; Fawzia Afzal-Poetry-Smokescreen. pp. 132; Waseem Anwar-Poetry-Some days...are slow... pp. 132; Jahanzaib Aslam-Poetry-An Idea. pp. 133; Iqbal, M. Haider-Poetry-Birth of the Holy Prophet (PBUH). pp. 133; Adil Aleem-Poetry-Demise of Life. pp. 134; Raja Nausherwan-Poetry-Fading Memories. pp. 134; Sindhu, M.Y.-Poetry-A Tribute to Dr. Tebbe. pp. 135; Safa Aleem-Poetry-Ambivalence. pp. 135; Sadia Nawaz-Poetry-An Elegy. pp. 136; Raja Sufiyan-Poetry-Final Cut. pp. 136; Muhammad Fahad Raza-Poetry-God Almighty. pp. 137; Hafiza Madiha Sadiq-Poetry-Ya Allah. pp. 137; Nabiha Jaffery-Poetry-Impossible. pp. 138; Nada Ashfaq-Poetry-Life. pp. 138; Komal Tariq-Poetry-Loath. pp. 139; Ahmad Javed-Poetry-May. pp. 139; Sobia Kiran-Poetry-Love. pp. 140; Maryam Azhar-Poetry-My Crime? pp. 141; Nauman Ahmad-Poetry-My Dear Friend. pp. 141; Usman Khalid-Poetry-My Valentine. pp. 142; Omer Chattha-Poetry-Palestinians, the Defeated Patriots. pp. 143; Anam Khalid-Poetry-Mend My Broken Heart. pp. 144; Ahmad Javaid-Poetry-Teaching Angel. pp. 144; Sadia Khalid-Poetry-That is the Life. pp. 145; Nabiha Jaffery-Poetry-The Queen of Night. pp. 145; Sadia Riaz-Poetry-To Live Forever. pp. 146; Salma Muazaffar-Poetry-Unforgettable Days. pp. 146; Samson Munawar-Poetry-Guess Me. pp. 147; Ahmad-O the Glorious Sun. pp. 147; Arif Qureshi-Poetry-Autumn. pp. 148; Aneela Gill-Poetry-Trust. pp. 148; Fareeha Quyyum-Poetry-Ultimate End. pp. 149; Hafiza Madiha Sadiq-Poetry-Science in My Eyes. pp. 149; Sadia Nawaz-Poetry-Anglo-Saxon. pp. 150; Arif Qureshi-Poetry-Blooming Flowers. pp. 150; Danish Islam-Poetry-There is No Such Thing As. pp. 151; Iqbal, M. Haider-Poetry-The Invincible. pp. 151; Ahmad Farooq-Poetry-Fairy Land. pp. 152; Bilkis Hussain-Poetry-How did it Get So Late So Soon? pp. 152; Aneeq Badar-Poetry-I wish to Die. pp. 153; Beenish Fatima-Poetry-My Love. pp. 153; Omer Habib-Interview with Justice (Retd.) Wajeeh Ud Din. pp. 155-156; Interview with Muhammad Yousuf. pp. 157-158; Sallah-ud-Din-Reminiscence. pp. 159; Once a Formanite... Always a Formanite. pp. 160-161; Shahid Hassan-Pakistan's Economy. pp. 162-163; Adeel Riaz-Fulbrighters share their American Experience. pp. 164-169; Aftab Nasir-My Experience. pp. 170-171; Tabeeta Abida-Article-Reflection on Regional Capacity Building (RBC) Training. pp. 172; Asif Hussain-At FC College, We Feel at Home. pp. 173-174; Annual Reports. pp. 175-176; Azzam Saddique-Folio Survey. pp. 177-178; Folio [Urdu]. 120 p.Editorial Board (English). before the Editorial; Cartoons on 6 pages. after page 110; Justice (Retd.) Wajeeh Ud Din. after page 156; Muhammad Yousuf. before page 157; Offices. after page 179; Convocation. after page 179; Alumni. after page 179; Alumni. after page 179; Alumni. after page 179; Sports. after page 179; Sports. after page 179; Sports. after page 179; Sports. after page 179; Societies. after page 179; Societies. after page 179; Societies. after page 179; Societies. after page 179; Societies. after page 179; Festival. after page 179; Music. after page 179; Drama. after page 179; Campus Life. after page 179; Campus Life. after page 179; Campus Life. after page 179; Interview with Dr Anwar Sajjad. after page 6 (Urdu section); Editorial Board (Urdu). before contents page (Urdu section
Religious pluralism and Islam : a critical examination of John Hick's pluralistic hypothesis
No full textThis dissertation
makes a
full
critical analysis of
John Hick's
pluralistic
hypothesis
(which
views great world religions as equally valid ways of salvation/liberation)
from
an
Islamic perspective.
To be
able to do this,
it begins
with a survey of
Islamic
responses to
the problem of religious
diversity by
employing
Alan Race's threefold taxonomy
(exclusivism, inclusivism
and pluralism).
Chapter
one concludes that al-Maturidi's
exclusivistic and
AtefI's inclusivistic
approaches cannot satisfactorily answer the matter
in
hand,
namely
"why
a compassionate and
loving God
should exclude totally or partially the
vast majority of
human beings from
salvation/liberation.
" Arkoun's
pluralistic viewpoint
comes closer to Hick's but is incomplete, immature
and radically reductionist.
The dissertation, then, starts examining
Hick's
pluralism.
First, it
gives an extensive
account of pluralism.
At the
fundamental level, Hick
argues
for the veridicality of one's
experience
in
order to establish the right of one to believe,
which
in turn creates the
problem of religious
diversity:
several religions claiming to offer the best
way of
salvation/liberation.
Before putting
forward his
own theory, Hick
examines other
naturalistic
(Durkheimian
and
Freudian) and religious
(exclusivistic
and
inclusivistic)
accounts of religions.
He dismisses them as unsatisfactory and poses
his
religious
interpretation
of religion.
Drawing the Kantian distinction
of noumenon and phenomenon,
Hick
claims that religions, with their personal gods and
impersonal
absolutes, are
phenomenal responses to the noumenal
Real. His
soteriological criterion of transformation
from "self-centredness to Reality-centredness" contends that great world religions are
equally valid ways of salvation/liberation.
Since the noumenal
Real is
totally
ineffable,
religious
language
should
be
understood mythically/metaphorically.
After
careful critical consideration,
the thesis concludes that Hick's
pluralism cannot
be
compatible with
Islam,
unless it is
modified
from three angles: the total ineffability
of the
Real
must
be
replaced with a
"moderate ineffability" (hence
moderate pluralism), a
hermeneutical
reading of the holy texts should replace
Hick's
mythical approach, and
Hick's
primarily ethical soteriological criterion needs to be
extended to include the ritual
aspect of religion.
This
modified version of
Hick's
pluralism
is
named
"moderate
pluralism.
" The thesis concludes that moderate pluralism
is
compatible with
Islam
and
offers a way
forward
particularly
in its dealing
with other religions
Global burden of 292 causes of death in 204 countries and territories and 660 subnational locations, 1990-2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023
No full textBackground: Timely and comprehensive analyses of causes of death stratified by age, sex, and location are essential for shaping effective health policies aimed at reducing global mortality. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 provides cause-specific mortality estimates measured in counts, rates, and years of life lost (YLLs). GBD 2023 aimed to enhance our understanding of the relationship between age and cause of death by quantifying the probability of dying before age 70 years (70q0) and the mean age at death by cause and sex. This study enables comparisons of the impact of causes of death over time, offering a deeper understanding of how these causes affect global populations. Methods: GBD 2023 produced estimates for 292 causes of death disaggregated by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 660 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2023. We used a modelling tool developed for GBD, the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to estimate cause-specific death rates for most causes. We computed YLLs as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. Probability of death was calculated as the chance of dying from a given cause in a specific age period, for a specific population. Mean age at death was calculated by first assigning the midpoint age of each age group for every death, followed by computing the mean of all midpoint ages across all deaths attributed to a given cause. We used GBD death estimates to calculate the observed mean age at death and to model the expected mean age across causes, sexes, years, and locations. The expected mean age reflects the expected mean age at death for individuals within a population, based on global mortality rates and the population's age structure. Comparatively, the observed mean age represents the actual mean age at death, influenced by all factors unique to a location-specific population, including its age structure. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 250-draw distribution for each metric. Findings are reported as counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2023 include a correction for the misclassification of deaths due to COVID-19, updates to the method used to estimate COVID-19, and updates to the CODEm modelling framework. This analysis used 55 761 data sources, including vital registration and verbal autopsy data as well as data from surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. For GBD 2023, there were 312 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 3 country-years of surveillance data, 51 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 144 country-years of other data types that were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. Findings: The initial years of the COVID-19 pandemic caused shifts in long-standing rankings of the leading causes of global deaths: it ranked as the number one age-standardised cause of death at Level 3 of the GBD cause classification hierarchy in 2021. By 2023, COVID-19 dropped to the 20th place among the leading global causes, returning the rankings of the leading two causes to those typical across the time series (ie, ischaemic heart disease and stroke). While ischaemic heart disease and stroke persist as leading causes of death, there has been progress in reducing their age-standardised mortality rates globally. Four other leading causes have also shown large declines in global age-standardised mortality rates across the study period: diarrhoeal diseases, tuberculosis, stomach cancer, and measles. Other causes of death showed disparate patterns between sexes, notably for deaths from conflict and terrorism in some locations. A large reduction in age-standardised rates of YLLs occurred for neonatal disorders. Despite this, neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of global YLLs over the period studied, except in 2021, when COVID-19 was temporarily the leading cause. Compared to 1990, there has been a considerable reduction in total YLLs in many vaccine-preventable diseases, most notably diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus, and measles. In addition, this study quantified the mean age at death for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality and found noticeable variation by sex and location. The global all-cause mean age at death increased from 46·8 years (95% UI 46·6-47·0) in 1990 to 63·4 years (63·1-63·7) in 2023. For males, mean age increased from 45·4 years (45·1-45·7) to 61·2 years (60·7-61·6), and for females it increased from 48·5 years (48·1-48·8) to 65·9 years (65·5-66·3), from 1990 to 2023. The highest all-cause mean age at death in 2023 was found in the high-income super-region, where the mean age for females reached 80·9 years (80·9-81·0) and for males 74·8 years (74·8-74·9). By comparison, the lowest all-cause mean age at death occurred in sub-Saharan Africa, where it was 38·0 years (37·5-38·4) for females and 35·6 years (35·2-35·9) for males in 2023. Lastly, our study found that all-cause 70q0 decreased across each GBD super-region and region from 2000 to 2023, although with large variability between them. For females, we found that 70q0 notably increased from drug use disorders and conflict and terrorism. Leading causes that increased 70q0 for males also included drug use disorders, as well as diabetes. In sub-Saharan Africa, there was an increase in 70q0 for many non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Additionally, the mean age at death from NCDs was lower than the expected mean age at death for this super-region. By comparison, there was an increase in 70q0 for drug use disorders in the high-income super-region, which also had an observed mean age at death lower than the expected value. Interpretation: We examined global mortality patterns over the past three decades, highlighting-with enhanced estimation methods-the impacts of major events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, in addition to broader trends such as increasing NCDs in low-income regions that reflect ongoing shifts in the global epidemiological transition. This study also delves into premature mortality patterns, exploring the interplay between age and causes of death and deepening our understanding of where targeted resources could be applied to further reduce preventable sources of mortality. We provide essential insights into global and regional health disparities, identifying locations in need of targeted interventions to address both communicable and non-communicable diseases. There is an ever-present need for strengthened health-care systems that are resilient to future pandemics and the shifting burden of disease, particularly among ageing populations in regions with high mortality rates. Robust estimates of causes of death are increasingly essential to inform health priorities and guide efforts toward achieving global health equity. The need for global collaboration to reduce preventable mortality is more important than ever, as shifting burdens of disease are affecting all nations, albeit at different paces and scales. Funding: Gates Foundation
Testes genéticos diretos ao consumidor: livre arbítrio ou violação da autonomia?
No full textPurpose/Context. There are currently several types of direct-to-consumer genetic tests, some to assess health and non-health aspects, which generate controversy with respect to the exercise of autonomy.
Methodology/Approach. A literature review with a narrative approach was conducted on the information declared by direct online sales companies, the validity and clinical utility of direct-to-consumer genetic tests in humans, from the elements of respect for the autonomy of principled bioethics.
Results/Findings. Of 48 documents selected, the topics were distributed as follows: 29% on direct-to-consumer genetic tests related to health, 15% on tests not related to health aspects, 15% corresponded to information provided to the public by companies, 27% on validity and clinical utility, and 40% dealt with respect for autonomy and legal aspects.
Discussion/Conclusions/Contributions. From the perspective of the principled autonomous notion conception, when an individual accesses direct-to-consumer genetic testing, even intentionally, but which is promoted with misleading information/advertising, without pre- and post-results genetic counseling, and in which analytical/clinical validity is insufficient, the level of understanding and freedom of choice for decision making is affected, therefore, acting is not fully autonomous.Propósito/Contexto. En la actualidad existen varios tipos de pruebas genéticas directas al consumidor, algunas para evaluar aspectos relacionados o no con la salud, las cuales generan controversias con respecto al ejercicio de la autonomía.
Metodología/Enfoque. Se realizó una revisión de la literatura de enfoque narrativo sobre la información declarada por las empresas de venta directa en línea, la validez y la utilidad clínica de las pruebas genéticas directas al consumidor en humanos, desde los elementos del respeto a la autonomía de la bioética principialista.
Resultados/Hallazgos. De 48 documentos seleccionados, las temáticas se distribuyeron así: el 29 % sobre pruebas genéticas directas al consumidor relacionadas con salud, un 15 % acerca de pruebas no relacionadas con aspectos de la salud, 15 % correspondieron a información suministrada al público por las empresas, un 27 % sobre validez y utilidad clínica, y un 40 % trataba acerca del respeto a la autonomía y aspectos legales.
Discusión/Conclusiones/Contribuciones. Desde la perspectiva de la concepción de noción autónoma principialista, cuando un individuo accede a las pruebas genéticas directas al consumidor, aun de manera intencional, pero que se promocionan con información/publicidad engañosa, sin asesoramiento genético previo y posterior a los resultados, y en las cuales la validez analítica/clínica es insuficiente, se afecta el nivel de comprensión y la libertad de elegir para la toma de decisiones, por lo tanto, el actuar no es completamente autónomo.Purpose/Context. There are currently several types of direct-to-consumer genetic tests, some to assess health and non-health aspects, which generate controversy with respect to the exercise of autonomy.
Methodology/Approach. A literature review with a narrative approach was conducted on the information declared by direct online sales companies, the validity and clinical utility of direct-to-consumer genetic tests in humans, from the elements of respect for the autonomy of principled bioethics.
Results/Findings. Of 48 documents selected, the topics were distributed as follows: 29% on direct-to-consumer genetic tests related to health, 15% on tests not related to health aspects, 15% corresponded to information provided to the public by companies, 27% on validity and clinical utility, and 40% dealt with respect for autonomy and legal aspects.
Discussion/Conclusions/Contributions. From the perspective of the principled autonomous notion conception, when an individual accesses direct-to-consumer genetic testing, even intentionally, but which is promoted with misleading information/advertising, without pre- and post-results genetic counseling, and in which analytical/clinical validity is insufficient, the level of understanding and freedom of choice for decision making is affected, therefore, acting is not fully autonomous.Objetivo/Contexto. Atualmente, existem vários tipos de testes genéticos diretos ao consumidor, alguns para avaliar aspectos de saúde e outros não, que geram controvérsias com relação ao exercício da autonomia.
Metodologia/Abordagem. Foi realizada uma revisão narrativa da literatura sobre as informações declaradas pelas empresas de vendas diretas on-line, a validade e a utilidade clínica dos testes genéticos diretos ao consumidor em seres humanos, com base nos elementos de respeito à autonomia da bioética baseada em princípios.
Resultados/Descobertas. Dos 48 documentos selecionados, os tópicos foram distribuídos da seguinte forma: 29% sobre testes genéticos diretos ao consumidor relacionados à saúde, 15% sobre testes não relacionados à saúde, 15% sobre informações fornecidas ao público pelas empresas, 27% sobre validade e utilidade clínica e 40% sobre respeito à autonomia e aspectos legais.
Discussão/Conclusões/Contribuições. Do ponto de vista da noção principiológica de autonomia, quando um indivíduo acessa testes genéticos diretos ao consumidor, mesmo que intencionalmente, mas que são promovidos com informações/publicidade enganosas, sem aconselhamento genético pré e pós-resultados, e nos quais a validade analítica/clínica é insuficiente, o nível de compreensão e a liberdade de escolha para a tomada de decisões são afetados, portanto, a ação não é totalmente autônoma
Global age-sex-specific all-cause mortality and life expectancy estimates for 204 countries and territories and 660 subnational locations, 1950–2023: a demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023
No full textComprehensive, comparable, and timely estimates of demographic metrics—including life expectancy and age-specific mortality—are essential for evaluating, understanding, and addressing trends in population health. The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the importance of timely and all-cause mortality estimates for being able to respond to changing trends in health outcomes, showing a strong need for demographic analysis tools that can produce all-cause mortality estimates more rapidly with more readily available all-age vital registration (VR) data. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) is an ongoing research effort that quantifies human health by estimating a range of epidemiological quantities of interest across time, age, sex, location, cause, and risk. This study—part of the latest GBD release, GBD 2023—aims to provide new and updated estimates of all-cause mortality and life expectancy for 1950 to 2023 using a novel statistical model that accounts for complex correlation structures in demographic data across age and time. We used 24 025 data sources from VR, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources to estimate all-cause mortality for males, females, and all sexes combined across 25 age groups in 204 countries and territories as well as 660 subnational units in 20 countries and territories, for the years 1950–2023. For the first time, we used complete birth history data for ages 5–14 years, age-specific sibling history data for ages 15–49 years, and age-specific mortality data from Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems. We developed a single statistical model that incorporates both parametric and non-parametric methods, referred to as OneMod, to produce estimates of all-cause mortality for each age-sex-location group. OneMod includes two main steps: a detailed regression analysis with a generalised linear modelling tool that accounts for age-specific covariate effects such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and a population attributable fraction (PAF) for all risk factors combined; and a non-parametric analysis of residuals using a multivariate kernel regression model that smooths across age and time to adaptably follow trends in the data without overfitting. We calibrated asymptotic uncertainty estimates using Pearson residuals to produce 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) and corresponding 1000 draws. Life expectancy was calculated from age-specific mortality rates with standard demographic methods. For each measure, 95% UIs were calculated with the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. In 2023, 60·1 million (95% UI 59·0–61·1) deaths occurred globally, of which 4·67 million (4·59–4·75) were in children younger than 5 years. Due to considerable population growth and ageing since 1950, the number of annual deaths globally increased by 35·2% (32·2–38·4) over the 1950–2023 study period, during which the global age-standardised all-cause mortality rate declined by 66·6% (65·8–67·3). Trends in age-specific mortality rates between 2011 and 2023 varied by age group and location, with the largest decline in under-5 mortality occurring in east Asia (67·7% decrease); the largest increases in mortality for those aged 5–14 years, 25–29 years, and 30–39 years occurring in high-income North America (11·5%, 31·7%, and 49·9%, respectively); and the largest increases in mortality for those aged 15–19 years and 20–24 years occurring in Eastern Europe (53·9% and 40·1%, respectively). We also identified higher than previously estimated mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa for all sexes combined aged 5–14 years (87·3% higher in GBD 2023 than GBD 2021 on average across countries and territories over the 1950–2021 period) and for females aged 15–29 years (61·2% higher), as well as lower than previously estimated mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa for all sexes combined aged 50 years and older (13·2% lower), reflecting advances in our modelling approach. Global life expectancy followed three distinct trends over the study period. First, between 1950 and 2019, there were considerable improvements, from 51·2 (50·6–51·7) years for females and 47·9 (47·4–48·4) years for males in 1950 to 76·3 (76·2–76·4) years for females and 71·4 (71·3–71·5) years for males in 2019. Second, this period was followed by a decrease in life expectancy during the COVID-19 pandemic, to 74·7 (74·6–74·8) years for females and 69·3 (69·2–69·4) years for males in 2021. Finally, the world experienced a period of post-pandemic recovery in 2022 and 2023, wherein life expectancy generally returned to pre-pandemic (2019) levels in 2023 (76·3 [76·0–76·6] years for females and 71·5 [71·2–71·8] years for males). 194 (95·1%) of 204 countries and territories experienced at least partial post-pandemic recovery in age-standardised mortality rates by 2023, with 61·8% (126 of 204) recovering to or falling below pre-pandemic levels. There were several mortality trajectories during and following the pandemic across countries and territories. Long-term mortality trends also varied considerably between age groups and locations, demonstrating the diverse landscape of health outcomes globally. This analysis identified several key differences in mortality trends from previous estimates, including higher rates of adolescent mortality, higher rates of young adult mortality in females, and lower rates of mortality in older age groups in much of sub-Saharan Africa. The findings also highlight stark differences across countries and territories in the timing and scale of changes in all-cause mortality trends during and following the COVID-19 pandemic (2020–23). Our estimates of evolving trends in mortality and life expectancy across locations, ages, sexes, and SDI levels in recent years as well as over the entire 1950–2023 study period provide crucial information for governments, policy makers, and the public to ensure that health-care systems, economies, and societies are prepared to address the world's health needs, particularly in populations with higher rates of mortality than previously known. The estimates from this study provide a robust framework for GBD and a valuable foundation for policy development, implementation, and evaluation around the world. Gates Foundation
