201 research outputs found
Macroeconomic Differentials and Adjustment in the Euro Area
No full textThere has recently been increased research and policy interest in the divergent macroeconomic performance in the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Understanding the underlying factors of macroeconomic differentials, the source and transmission of shocks and the adjustment process in the euro area is important to appropriate economic policy in the EMU. In a monetary union, the single monetary policy can only address common shocks. In the absence of nominal interest and exchange rates as policy instruments, to adjust to asymmetric shocks country specific shocks or idiosyncratic effects of common shocks, member countries have to resort to remaining tools of economic policy. In theory, the adjustment to asymmetric shocks and return to equilibrium can take place through four channels: a) market driven price and output adjustment; b) policy induced fiscal adjustment; c) risk-sharing against country-specific shocks through fiscal transfers and financial integration; d) labour mobility. Temporary inflation and output growth differentials are likely in a common currency area since prices and output adjustment is required to absorb shocks. In the euro area, output growth and inflation differentials are also related to the ongoing catch - up process in some of the member countries. Persistent inflation differentials can have negative effects on incomes and investment and result in divergent competitiveness and monetary conditions in the participating countries. Furthermore, inappropriate use of national fiscal policy and real exchange rate adjustment can lead to poor macroeconomic performance. The objective of this paper is to analyse macroeconomic differentials and the adjustment in the euro area so far with the aim to draw lessons and policy implications for the better functioning of the EMU and euro areaenlargement. The questions we address are the following: What do we know about macroeconomic differentials in the euro area? Are they temporary or persistent? What factors underlie them? What is the likelihood of asymmetric shocks in the euro area and what are their main transmission channels? What policy issues related to the macroeconomic adjustment in the EMU are most important at this stage? The remainder of this study is organised as follows. In Section 2 we analyse the size, evolution, persistence and underlying factors of output growth and inflation differentials. Section 3 discusses the likelihood of asymmetric shocks and their transmission across the euro area countries. In particular, we analyse trade linkages, including intra- and extra-euro area trade, financial integration and business cycle synchronisation. In Section 4 we discuss a number of policy issues related to the macroeconomic adjustment in EMU which have gained increased interest recently. We start with the role and effects of real interest rate and competitiveness differentials as adjustment channels. We discuss next policy issues related to fiscal adjustment and the impact of fiscal shocks in the euro area countries. We then discuss labour mobility as an adjustment mechanism. Finally, Section 5 summarises the main findings and draws policy implications for the EMU and the euro area enlargement.European Economic and Monetary Union, International transmission of shocks, Macroeconomic adjustment
Interval-Based Chemometric Methods in NMR Foodomics
No full textIn classical empirical research a model requires that the number of variables must be less than the number of observations, but developments in chemometrics and modern analytical platforms have pushed people beyond the classical model. Typical "omics" data sets will include 100-1000 samples and often more than 10,000 variables and the advantage of using chemometrics to large data structures is the ability to efficiently deal with collinear data sets with many more variables than samples. However, the trend with ever more variables also pushes the chemometric tools to the limit as they will also increase the extent of spurious correlations and interferences. This chapter advocates for a systematic breakdown of the variable space in intervals in order to improve the interpretability and performance of chemometric methods. The term ". i-chemometrics" is here introduced to encompass the whole class of interval-based chemometric methods. This chapter will describe the advantages of using the generic i-chemometric methods for data preprocessing, data exploration, regression, and sample classification/discrimination using examples from NMR foodomics. The main advantages are more parsimonious models, improved interpretability and, in many cases, improved performanc
A primer to nutritional metabolomics by NMR spectroscopy and chemometrics
No full textThis paper outlines the advantages and disadvantages of using high throughput NMR metabolomics for nutritional studies with emphasis on the workflow and data analytical methods for generation of new knowledge. The paper describes one-by-one the major research activities in the interdisciplinary metabolomics platform and highlights the opportunities that NMR spectra can provide in future nutrition studies. Three areas are emphasized: (1) NMR as an unbiased and non-destructive platform for providing an overview of the metabolome under investigation, (2) NMR for providing versatile information and data structures for multivariate pattern recognition methods and (3) NMR for providing a unique fingerprint of the lipoprotein status of the subject. For the first time in history, by combining NMR spectroscopy and chemometrics we are able to perform inductive nutritional research as a complement to the deductive approac
The Quest for Stability: the macro view
No full textOn September 3-4, 2009 SUERF and Utrecht University School of Economicsorganized the Colloquium "The Quest for Stability" in Utrecht, the Netherlands. The papers included in this SUERF Study are based on contributions to the Colloquium.asset prices, bubbles, financial institutions, global recession, interest rates, liquidity, monetary policy, regulation, stability, supervision.
The Population ageing in Italy: facts and impact on household portfolios
No full textThis paper aims to assess the impact of ageing on household portfolios in Italy and hence ultimately on financial markets. To this end, the analysis is carried out in two steps. First, the dimension of population ageing in Italy is assessed by means of both historical and forecast data on the structure of Italian population. Second, based on data taken from the Bank of Italy Survey of Household Income and Wealth (SHIW) over the last decade, we analyse the average household portfolio in relation to demographic characteristics. The main findings are: first, Italy turns out to be one of the countries most affected by ageing; second, financial choices of Italian households are sensibly affected by age. Thus, the exceptional ageing in Italy might have relevant consequences on the Italian financial market
New insights from a β-glucan human intervention study using NMR metabolomics
No full textThis study investigates the plasma metabolic effectiveness from 3.3g mixed linkage barley or oat β-glucan fibre per day by 1H NMR spectroscopy on plasma samples and multivariate data analysis. Three large-scale extracted, equally sized but structurally different β-glucans were tested in a blinded randomised cross-over design using young healthy adults, where the β-glucans were compared to a non-fibre control during a 21day dietary intervention period. Subject variance was found to dominate the metabolomics data although the variations in subject age and BMI were very small. The second most influential variation was found to be due to gender as characteristic lipoprotein profiles were found for male and female samples. The 3.3g/day did not perturb the blood homeostasis in healthy adults as no systematic differences between 3-week β-glucan treatments and control were found. The present study constitutes the first metabolomic β-glucan human intervention study which proves complementary and confirmatory with respect to previous nutritional investigations evaluating traditional cardiovascular disease risk markers
After ten years the Russian crisis how IMF intervention might be evaluated?
No full textThe ongoing global financial crisis has become prominently visible since September 2008. This crisis affected the whole world and enhanced the importance of policy implementation to mitigate financial crises in future. Many academics blamed insufficient domestic regulation as the reason of crises, others pointed to the lack of overseas financial regulation and inappropriate actions by international organizations, such as the IMF and World Bank. This whole discussion encouraged to look back and analyzed a previous crisis in smallest countries such as Russia. This paper evidently shows the inefficiency of IMF policy during the Russia Crisis in 1998 by implementing a new monetary balance-of-payment model in Russian data. This model identified the role of macroeconomic fundamentals and international economic policy implications on the likelihood and the timing of the currency crisis in Russia. For the period from December 1995 to December 1998 it was found that, the increase in domestic credit growth gradually undermined confidence in the fixed exchange rate regime. The most dangerous point was at the end of 1998, when the collapse probability was above 90 percent. This result ambiguously questioned the IMF’s July packet 1998 and proved the political aspects of this financial help.currency crisis, financial liberalization, sudden-stops, monetary balance-of-payment model, Russian crisis, IMF’s policy
Corporate governance ratings as a means to reduce asymmetric information Corporate governance ratings as a means to reduce asymmetric information AUTHOR BIOGRAPHIES Public interest statement
No full textabstract: Can corporate governance ratings reduce problems of asymmetric information between companies and investors? To answer this question, we set out to examine the information basis for providing such ratings by reviewing corporate governance attributes that are required or recommended in laws, accounting standards and codes, respectively. After that, we scrutinize and organize the publicly available information on the methodologies actually used by rating providers. However, important details of these methodologies are treated as confidential property, thus we approach the evaluation of corporate governance ratings as a means to reduce asymmetric information in a more general manner. We propose that the rating process may be seen as consisting of two general activities, namely a data reduction phase, and a data weighting, aggregation and classification phase. Findings based on a Danish data-set suggest that rating providers by selecting relevant attributes in an intelligent way can improve the screening of companies according to governance quality. In contrast, it seems questionable that weighting, aggregation and classification of corporate governance attributes considerably improve discrimination according to governance quality. AUTHOR BIOGRAPHIES Public interest statement In this study we examine the information basis for providing corporate governance ratings. We review corporate governance attributes that are required or recommended and examine different rating methodologies used by rating providers. Important details of the rating methodologies are treated as confidential property, thus we approach the evaluation of corporate governance ratings as a means to reduce asymmetric information in a more general manner. We propose that the rating process may be seen as consisting of two general activities, namely a data reduction phase, and a data weighting, aggregation and classification phase. Our findings suggest that (1) rating providers by selecting relevant attributes in an intelligent way can improve the screening of companies according to governance quality, and (2) in distinguishing between different companies' reported governance quality only little additional value will be added through the rating providers' efforts to weight, aggregate and classify corporate governance attributes
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