1,721,085 research outputs found
Analisi di rischio e incertezza: l’uso dei metodi Monte Carlo per i rischi naturali.
No full textLa stima del rischio associato ad un qualsiasi evento, cioè, le analisi di rischio, sono sempre caratterizzate da un certo
grado di incertezza, che può essere più o meno elevato a seconda del livello della conoscenza scientifica in merito al
fenomeno trattato.
Caratterizzare tale incertezza, ovvero esprimerla e quantificarla nel risultato finale, appare però indispensabile ai fini di
un uso del dato più chiaro, giustificato e trasparente. Nel campo dei rischi naturali, la maggior parte delle attuali
metodologie di analisi trascura però questo aspetto, non fornendo indicazioni sufficienti in merito all’affidabilità del
risultato. Il presente studio propone quindi l’uso dei metodi Monte Carlo, già applicati con successo in altri settori, ai
fini di un’analisi dei rischi naturali di tipo probabilistico. In particolare trasforma il cosiddetto “metodo con memoria”,
proposto in ambito sismico, in un metodo, trasferibile ad altri ambiti oltre a quello sismico, in grado non solo di
comprendere e di caratterizzare l’incertezza legata alla scelta dei parametri che concorrono a quantificare il rischio ma
anche di trasferirla e quantificarla nel risultato finale. Un caso studio sul territorio della Garfagnana ha permesso di
verificare il metodo
A behavioural model for quantifying flood warning effectiveness, Journal of flood risk management
No full textThe extent of losses avoided as a result of a warning is a key measure of warning
system effectiveness. Tools to estimate the impact of warnings on losses are limited
to postflood analysis or estimates of potential rather than actual damages. This
paper illustrates a method for the appraisal of actual damages when a flood
warning is issued. The approach combines social science with engineering
approaches to the problem of flood warning effectiveness. From a starting point
of estimating potential damages by means of depth–damage curves, the method
allows the identification of damage reduction by modelling how people respond to
the warning. The model is in the form of an event tree representing human
behavioural steps in the flood warning process. Two Australian case studies show
how to apply the developed methodology. The results from these cases demonstrate
the utility of the event-tree model that also allows the identification of weak
links in the warning chain
Computational simulation of air flows through a Sri Lankan wind-driven furnace
No full textResearch carried out in the early 1990s in Sri Lanka, combining field survey, ethno-archaeology and excavation, revealed an
extensive iron producing industry dating to the second half of the first millennium AD. The field evidence indicated that this industry
was based on a shallow, wind-powered furnace design that represented a radical departure from the accepted bellows-driven, shaft
furnace model which has been the epitome of successful pre-industrial iron smelting. Subsequent experimental reconstructions of the
process carried out in Sri Lanka established that the furnaces were wind-powered and also that they were capable of producing high
quality, hypereutectoid steels. The objective of the current work is to use modern techniques in Computational Fluid Dynamics
(CFD) to investigate the airflow through and around these furnaces in order to verify the theoretical model of their operation. It also
demonstrates the potential application of CFD to the modelling and interpretation of pre-modern pyrotechnologie
Flood Damage Survey and Assessment: New Insights from Research and Practice
No full textSeveral scholars across the globe identified the present lack of high quality damage data as the main constraint to efficient risk mitigation. The need for a systematic collection of damage data in the aftermath of flood events come into light, thus the aim being the creation of complete and reliable databases. Flood damage data collected in the aftermath of a disastrous event can support a variety of actions, which include: (i) the identification of priorities for intervention during emergencies, (ii) the creation of complete event scenarios on the basis of which understanding the fragilities of the flooded areas and tailoring risk mitigation strategies, (iii) the definition of victims compensation schemes, and (iv) the validation/definition of damage models to feed cost-benefit analysis of structural and non-structural mitigation actions (including insurance schemes).
Volume highlights include:
A good compilation of real world case studies elaborating on the survey experiences and best practices associated with flood damage data collection, storage and analysis, that can help strategize flood risk mitigation in an efficient manner
Valuable contributions covering different flooding phenomena such as riverine and mountain floods, different spatial level of analysis from local to global scales, and different stakeholders perspectives, e.g. public decision makers, researchers, private companies
Contributions from leading experts in the field, researchers and practitioners, including civil protection actors working at different spatial and administrative level, insurers and professionals working in the field of natural hazards mitigation
Flood Damage Survey and Assessment: New Insights from Research and Practice will be a valuable resource to all earth scientists, hydrologists, meteorologists, geologists, geographers, civil engineers, insurers and policy decision makers
Flood forecast verification in EWS
No full textFlood forecast verification is crucial to assess Flood Warning System performance.
However, how forecasts should be verified is still an open question. This paper is
grounded on the idea that flood forecast verification should not be seen as a
universal process, instead it should be tailored to the particular context in which
forecasts are implemented. Accordingly, by means of a case study, a verification
procedure is proposed. It comprises three steps that can be partially or totally
implemented depending on the specific aim of the analysis (that is the context)
allowing, this way, to evaluate forecasts at different perspectives or according to
different points of view. Specifically, the procedure extends the common practice of
flood forecast verification by including analytical tools from meteorology
Flood forecast verification to support emergency management
No full textThe aim of the paper is to set out a method with which to evaluate Flood Early Warning
Systems (FEWSs) in regard to their usefulness in warning decision-makers. In practice, this equates
to carrying out flood forecast verification in order to support the warning process or, more generally,
the emergency management. A procedure is proposed for conduct of the evaluation in different
warning contexts. Its application to a case study is also described. A critical analysis highlights that the
procedure is flexible and comprehensive, so that it can be implemented in regard to different decisionmaking
problems. The main innovation consists in the inclusion of damage among the variables on
which FEWSs performance assessment is grounded. In spite of marked uncertainties affecting the
complex modelling chain, the results give significant indications about the behaviour of the system
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