1,720,998 research outputs found
Learning from the past: a machine-learning approach for predicting the resilience of locked-in regions after a natural shock
No full textItaly has been affected by many different shocks in recent years, from the Great Recession to many natural hazards. While many studies have analysed the effects of natural and socio-economic shocks on urbanized and developed areas, very few have focused on locked-in and less developed regions. In this study we focus on the pernicious effects of three earthquakes that have affected the labour markets of rural and inner municipalities of Central Italy during the last 20 years. We adopt a machine-learning technique that allows us to provide a scenario five to seven years after the earthquake for 133 municipalities affected by the Central Italy earthquake in 2016
Mapping the exposure to natural disaster losses for Italian municipalities
No full textEven though the correct assessment of risks is a key aspect of the risk management analysis, we argue that limited effort has been devoted in the assessment of full measures of economic exposure at very low scale. For this reason, we aim at providing a complete and detailed map of the exposure of economic activities to natural disasters in the Italian context. We use Input-Output model and spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I) to provide information about several socio-economic variables, such as population density, employment density, firms’ turnover and capital stock, that can be seen as direct and indirect socio-economic exposure to natural disasters. These measures can be easily incorporated into risk assessment models to provide a clear picture of the disaster risk for Italian local areas
Spatial Economic Resilience: Overview and Perspectives
No full textThe concept of resilience has been receiving both theoretical and empirical attention in recent years, from different disciplinary fields, including spatial economics where resilience is becoming a ‘popular’ term. In particular, the concept of spatial economic resilience seems to assume slightly different interpretations. Starting from the basic definitions of resilience, which stem from ecology, this paper aims to highlight the similarities and the differences in the various analyses of resilience, in order to offer
some insights into its use in the spatial economics literature
Creating an Holistic Emergency Alert Management Platform
No full textExtreme natural events require effective emergency procedures to minimize adverse effects on a region’s population and economy. Such procedures typically involve the effort of several different teams of first responders (e.g., fire fighters, public administrations, police departments, utility companies), hence coordination is fundamental to the effectiveness of the response to the emergency that must be supported with adequate infrastructures. Nonetheless, first responders often rely on manual processes, in the life cycle of extreme events, which do not change consistently with the type of shock or affected population. The aim of this paper is to present a technology transfer process to improve both the emergency alert process and the knowledge of disaster-type safety procedures through the implementation of a proposed platform. We also highlight a pilot application on a post-disaster case study—the province of L’Aquila (Abruzzi) in Italy
The biogas dilemma: An analysis on the social approval of large new plants
No full textThe degree of social acceptance of biogas as a renewable green energy source is still somewhat disregarded. Although many initiatives have focused on the construction of new biogas plants around the world, local protests on the construction of new plants often arise. This study aims to analyse the determinants of citizens’ perceptions regarding the construction of new biomass plants in their neighbouring areas. In particular, the focus is on prior knowledge of the production process of biogas as well as on other individual characteristics. The investigation is based on two repeated surveys conducted among the population living in two Italian areas where the construction of new large biogas plants were planned (the provinces of Oristano and Andria). The first survey analyses the main variables correlated with the degree of biogas acceptability particularly the biogas knowledge. The second survey (differentiated in two waves) focuses on the role of participatory processes and information campaigns undertaken by policy makers and environmental associations to increase the social acceptance of communities regarding the construction of new biogas plants
Can extreme events be an opportunity? Depopulation and resilience of rural communities in Central Italy after the 1997 earthquake
No full textSocio-Natural Disasters are a global issue that need context-specific solutions. Similar hazards could indeed result in different (or no) disasters depending on the territorial peculiarities of the area they affect. Italy is an interesting case in this respect due to its physical geography. Three out of the four major seismic events of the last decades hit the rural areas of the country, in particular Central Apennines – territories that have been suffering from decades-old processes of ageing and depopulation. Within the conceptual framework of Community Resilience, our paper performs a time-sensitive quantitative analysis designed to observe resilience dynamics along different degrees of rurality in the area hit by the 1997 earthquake in Central Italy. In details, we adopt a quasi-experimental strategy, using population variation as a proxy for community resilience. We find that the disaster had a stabilizing effect on the affected communities, which have depopulated at a slower pace than the control group after the event
Local demand shocks and firms' survival: An application to the Italian economy during the Great Recession
No full textThe Italian economy is characterised by a large number of micro and small firms and by a long‐lasting gap between North and South Italy. Hence, global shocks ‐ such as the Great Recession ‐ have had a heterogeneous impact at the local level: the collapse in private demand was unequally distributed across different products, services and regions. The aim of this paper is therefore to evaluate the impact of the Great Recession on firm's survival for the universe of Italian firms in the light of two relevant indicators: local exposure to crisis and local demand shocks. Results suggest a strong negative impact of local demand shocks on the survival of firms, while the degree of exposure to the crisis has generally weak effect
Socio-economic exposure to natural disasters
No full textEven though the correct assessment of risks is a key aspect of the risk management analysis, we argue that limited effort has been devoted in the assessment of comprehensive measures of economic exposure at very low scale. For this reason, we aim at providing a series of suitable methodologies to provide a complete and detailed list of the exposure of economic activities to natural disasters. We use Input-Output models to provide information about several socio-economic variables, such as population density, employment density, firms’ turnover and capital stock, that can be seen as direct and indirect socio-economic exposure to natural disasters. We then provide an application to the Italian context. These measures can be easily incorporated into risk assessment models to provide a clear picture of the disaster risk for local areas
Assessing Disaster Risk by Integrating Natural and Socio-Economic Dimensions: A Decision-Support Tool
Full text linkThe paper provides a conceptual framework for a multi-dimensional assessment of risk associated to natural disasters. The different components of risk (hazard, exposure, vulnerability and resilience) are seen in a combined natural and socio-economic perspective and are integrated into a Disaster Risk Assessment Tool (DRAT). The tool can be used to support disaster management strategies, as well as risk mitigation and adaptation strategies at very disaggregated geographical or administrative scales. In this paper, we illustrate the features of the DRAT and we apply the tool to 7,556 Italian municipalities to map their multidimensional risk. DRAT can be particularly useful to identify hotspots that are characterized by high hazard, exposure and vulnerability and by low resilience. In order to identify hotspots, we perform a cluster analysis of the Italian municipalities in terms of their risk ranking based on DRAT. We also suggest how the tool may be exploited within the processes of disaster risk policy
Fiscal policy response of local governments to floods in Italy
Full text linkThis paper aims at empirically testing the dynamics of budget outcomes of Italian municipalities in the aftermath of floods, by accounting for heterogeneous levels of resilience and vulnerability to natural disasters. Our findings, based on a dynamic difference-in-difference after propensity score matching, point to substantial impacts in terms of increased capital expenditure and revenues from transfer, which also depend on the degree of resilience and vulnerability. Through our analysis we account for multiple aspects of risk so we can support policy decisions related to both ex-ante and ex-post disaster occurrence management
- …
