69 research outputs found
How is hot weather and ambient ozone potentially linked to COVID-19?:Heat and COVID-19 Information Series (Q&A)
No full text
A future without health? Health dimension in global scenario studies
No full textThis paper reviews the health dimension and sociocultural, economic, and ecological determinants of health in existing global scenario studies. Not even half of the 31 scenarios reviewed gave a good description of future health developments and the different scenario studies did not handle health in a consistent way. Most of the global driving forces of health are addressed adequately in the selected scenarios, however, and it therefore would have been possible to describe the future developments in health as an outcome of these multiple driving forces. To provide examples on how future health can be incorporated in existing scenarios, we linked the sociocultural, economic, and environmental developments described in three sets of scenarios (special report on emission scenarios (SRES), global environmental outlook-3 (GEO3), and world water scenarios (WWS)) to three potential, but imaginary, health futures ("age of emerging infectious diseases", "age of medical technology", and "age of sustained health"). This paper provides useful insights into how to deal with future health in scenarios and shows that a comprehensive picture of future health evolves when all important driving forces and pressures are taken into account
Phenomenological theory of radar targets
No full textElectrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Scienc
Climate Change Effects on Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality in the Netherlands: A Scenario-Based Integrated Environmental Health Impact Assessment
No full textAlthough people will most likely adjust to warmer temperatures, it is still difficult to assess what this adaptation will look like. This scenario-based integrated health impacts assessment explores baseline (1981-2010) and future (2050) population attributable fractions (PAF) of mortality due to heat (PAF(heat)) and cold (PAF(cold)), by combining observed temperature-mortality relationships with the Dutch KNMI'14 climate scenarios and three adaptation scenarios. The 2050 model results without adaptation reveal a decrease in PAF(cold) (8.90% at baseline; 6.56%-7.85% in 2050) that outweighs the increase in PAF(heat) (1.15% at baseline; 1.66%-2.52% in 2050). When the 2050 model runs applying the different adaptation scenarios are considered as well, however, the PAF(heat) ranges between 0.94% and 2.52% and the PAF(cold) between 6.56% and 9.85%. Hence, PAF(heat) and PAF(cold) can decrease as well as increase in view of climate change (depending on the adaptation scenario). The associated annual mortality burdens in 2050accounting for both the increasing temperatures and mortality trendshow that heat-related deaths will range between 1879 and 5061 (1511 at baseline) and cold-related deaths between 13,149 and 19,753 (11,727 at baseline). Our results clearly illustrate that model outcomes are not only highly dependent on climate scenarios, but also on adaptation assumptions. Hence, a better understanding of (the impact of various) plausible adaptation scenarios is required to advance future integrated health impact assessments
Climate change as an amplifier of health risks: highland malaria in Africa.
No full textThe interactions between climate and non-climate factors are of vital importance in shaping human vulnerability to global warming. In this chapter, this is illustrated for an important health risk induced by climate change, namely highland malaria in Africa. Despite the known causal links between climate and malaria transmission dynamics, the anticipated future impacts on disease risk are still surrounded by uncertainty, partly due to the fact that the relationship between vector-borne disease incidence and climate variables is complicated by many non-climate factors. We discuss some important non-climate factors that are crucial in determining the vulnerability context in the face of global warming. Although we focus on the example of highland malaria in Africa, the need for a systems approach is equally valid for other health impacts (e.g. food security, heat waves, flooding, and health impacts related to water scarcity)
Sustainability and Health
No full textAchieving good health should be an integral part of the current discussions about sustainable development. It is increasingly recognized that health research (and policy) requires a systems approach and the past decades have witnessed an emerging recognition of the multidimensional and multilevel causation of population health. An ever growing number of health researchers argue that the health of a population can – or must – be viewed within the broader system of health determinants. Consequently, in our effort to assess the health impacts of global (environmental) change, we have to be aware of the limitations of the traditional reductionist approach. Stressing the need for a system-based approach toward health, this chapter discusses and illustrates a conceptual model describing the broader context and multi-causality of our health. We apply this framework to a widely discussed health impact of climate change, namely, the emergence of malaria in the African highlands. This clearly demonstrates that malaria in East Africa’s highlands presents an interesting case study for understanding the importance of the system’s interactions between climate and non-climate factors in shaping human vulnerability to the adverse health impacts of global warming. Climate change is believed to primarily affect the intrinsic malaria transmission potential, but this relationship interacts with other factors and developments that affect disease dynamics as well. However, trying to conceptually describe the system involved is only one of the first steps in applying a system-based approach toward health. Hence, we briefly elaborate on some example tools from the sustainability science toolkit (modeling, scenario analyses, and participatory methods) that are available and conceivable in order to advance further systems research in the field of health and sustainable development. The chapter concludes with a discussion of possible barriers to adopting a sustainability science approach toward health, in an effort to explain the slow progress made so far
A future without health?: Health dimension in global scenario studies
No full textThis paper reviews the health dimension and sociocultural, economic, and ecological determinants of health in existing global scenario studies. Not even half of the 31 scenarios reviewed gave a good description of future health developments and the different scenario studies did not handle health in a consistent way. Most of the global driving forces of health are addressed adequately in the selected scenarios, however, and it therefore would have been possible to describe the future developments in health as an outcome of these multiple driving forces. To provide examples on how future health can be incorporated in existing scenarios, we linked the sociocultural, economic, and environmental developments described in three sets of scenarios (special report on emission scenarios (SRES), global environmental outlook-3 (GEO3), and world water scenarios (WWS)) to three potential, but imaginary, health futures ("age of emerging infectious diseases", "age of medical technology", and "age of sustained health"). This paper provides useful insights into how to deal with future health in scenarios and shows that a comprehensive picture of future health evolves when all important driving forces and pressures are taken into account
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