204 research outputs found
Demography, Growth, and Robots in Advanced and Emerging Economies
No full textThis paper provides estimates of the impact of demographic change on labor productivity growth, relying on annual data during 1961–2018 for a panel of 90 advanced and emerging economies. We find that increases in both the young and old population shares have significantly negative effects on labor productivity growth, working via various channels—including physical and human capital accumulation. Splitting the analysis for advanced and emerging economies shows that population aging has a greater effect on emerging economies than on advanced economies. Extending the benchmark model to include a proxy for the robotization of production, we find evidence indicating that automation reduces the negative effects of unfavorable demographic change—in particular, population aging—on labor productivity growth
Is Regional Growth in Italy Endogenous?
No full textLanzafame M. Is regional growth in Italy endogenous?, Regional Studies. This paper investigates the extent to which the natural rate of growth of the Italian regions is endogenous, in the sense that it is affected by actual growth. Using annual data for the period 1977-2003, mixed support is found for the endogeneity hypothesis. Furthermore, in line with recent findings in the literature, the analysis provides evidence of asymmetries in Okun's law when growth is endogenous. [image omitted] Lanzafame M. La croissance regionale en Italie, est-elle vraiment endogene?, Regional Studies. Cet article cherche a examiner dans quelle mesure le taux de croissance naturel des regions italiennes est endogene, en ce sens que elle est touchee par la croissance reelle. A partir des donnees annuelles pour la periode allant de 1977 jusqu'a 2003, on trouve du soutien mitige en faveur de l'hypothese endogene. Qui plus est, en accord avec des resultats recents dans la documentation, l'analyse fournit des preuves des asymetries dans la loi Okun quand la croissance est endogene. Croissance endogene Loi Okun Regions italiennes Lanzafame M. Ist das regionale Wachstum in Italien endogen?, Regional Studies. In diesem Beitrag wird untersucht, in welchem Ausmass die naturliche Wachstumsrate in den italienischen Regionen insofern endogen ausfallt, als dass sie vom tatsachlichen Wachstum beeinflusst wird. Anhand von Jahresdaten aus dem Zeitraum von 1977 bis 2003 stellen wir fest, dass fur die Hypothese der Endogenitat unterschiedliche Belege vorhanden sind. Daruber hinaus liefert unsere Analyse in Ubereinstimmung mit den jungsten Ergebnissen der Literatur Hinweise darauf, dass das Okunsche Gesetz bei einem endogenen Wachstum Asymmetrien aufweist. Endogenes Wachstum Okunsches Gesetz Italienische Regionen Lanzafame M. �Es endogeno el crecimiento regional en Italia?, Regional Studies. En este articulo investigamos en que medida la tasa natural de crecimiento en las regiones italianas es endogena en la medida en que este afectada por el crecimiento real. Con ayuda de datos anuales durante el periodo 1977-2003, observamos un apoyo mezclado para la hipotesis de endogeneidad. Ademas, de acuerdo con resultados recientes en la literatura, nuestro analisis ofrece ejemplos de asimetrias en la Ley de Okun cuando el crecimiento es endogeno. Crecimiento endogeno Ley de Okun Regiones italianasEndogenous growth, Okun's law, Italian regions,
Evaluating the stability of terps in the Netherlands
No full textTerps are artificial dwelling mounds mostly found in the northern regions of the Netherlands, built to provide safe ground against water in such areas affected by flooding, storm surges, and high tides, before the development of dikes. In this thesis, the stability of these terps was evaluated via FEM models and analyses performed on PLAXIS. Results highlight considerable stability risks when the terp slopes are subjected to considerable external loading, such as those exerted by heavy agricultural vehicles being operated in proximity of these.Geo-Engineerin
Economic Structure, Technology Diffusion and Convergence: The Case of the Italian Regions
No full textTaking Italy as a case study, this paper investigates the link between economies' structural similarities and convergence. Specifically, treating technology as sector-specific and modelling technological spillovers as a positive function of the degree of similarity between economies' sectoral features, we propose a modified version of the Solow model and derive an "extended" convergence equation. The latter is then estimated by means of Panel Data procedures and data on the Italian regions over the 1970-1995 period. The results bring empirical support to our approach.Convergence; Technology Diffusion; Regional Growth; Italy
Potential Growth in Asia and Its Determinants: An Empirical Investigation
No full textThis paper contributes to the literature on growth in Asia in several respects. I provide estimates of potential growth for 21 Asian economies using an aggregate supply model with time-varying parameters and a Kalman filtering methodology. My estimates indicate that the actual growth slowdown experienced by many of these economies in the 2000s is associated with a falling trajectory in potential growth. Relying on Bayesian model averaging, I select robust determinants of potential growth and find that the latter is driven by the technology gap, trade, tertiary education, and institutional quality, as well as by working-age population growth. Effective reforms in these areas can help counterbalance declines in potential growth in Asia. I also investigate the relationship between business cycle features and potential growth, finding that higher volatility in actual growth has significantly negative effects on potential growth. Thus, stabilization policies can have beneficial effects on Asian economies’ long-term growth performance
Current account sustainability in advanced economies
No full textThis paper investigates the sustainability of current accounts in advanced economies, using a panel of 27 countries and annual data over the 1980-2008 period. We find strong evidence in favour of nonlinear but stationary current-account trajectories for 14 countries, while the remaining 13 appear to be nonstationary and, thus, unsustainable. Our analysis indicates that careful empirical modeling of current-account dynamics, particularly in relation to cross-section dependence and nonlinear behaviour, is crucial for appropriate economic policymaking
The Nature of Regional Unemployment in Italy
No full textThis paper investigates the nature of regional unemployment in Italy. Taking as a starting point the evidence of growing disparities in the 1977-2003 years, we assess whether regional unemployment rates are diverging from each other in a non-stationary way, i.e. as a result of pure hysteresis. Relying both on univariate and panel unit-root tests, we show that the finding of a unit root in the Italian regional unemployment rates, which previous studies provided evidence of, is largely dependent on the use of low power tests. Exploiting the greater power of panel unit root tests allows us to confidently reject the unit root and, thus, the pure hysteresis hypothesis. The implication of this result is that, however persistent, shocks to regional unemployment will be temporary, in the sense that unemployment will return to its natural rate or NAIRU in the long-run. We, then, proceed to estimate the NAIRU for each of the 20 Italian regions. Our estimates of the regional NAIRUs turn out to be fairly precise, at least if compared to similar studies in the literature, and allow us to draw two interesting conclusions. Firstly, the hypothesis of a constant NAIRU between 1977 and 2003 is supported by the data for all of the Italian regions, with the possible exception of Abruzzo. Secondly, we find that there is a significant degree of heterogeneity among the regional NAIRUs. Thus, long-term regional unemployment disparities do seem to reflect structural or equilibrium unemployment differences across regions, as implied by the results of the unit root tests. This suggests that economic policy intervention aimed at reducing long-term regional unemployment differentials in Italy should, as much as possible, be region-specific in character. National policies, homogenous across regions, are likely to have diverse effects on the regional NAIRUs.
Is regional growth in Italy endogenous?
No full textInternational audienceFollowing LEÓN-LEDESMA and THIRLWALL (2002a) and relying on the HANSEN (1997) TAR approach, this paper investigates the extent to which the natural rate of growth of the Italian regions is endogenous, in the sense that it is affected by actual growth. Using annual data over the period 1977-2003, we find mixed support for the endogeneity hypothesis. Furthermore, in line with recent findings in the literature, our analysis provides evidence of asymmetries in Okun's Law when growth is endogenous
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