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    Market selection in large economies: a matter of luck

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    In a general equilibrium model with a continuum of traders and bounded aggregate endowment, I investigate the Market Selection Hypothesis that markets favor traders with accurate beliefs. Contrary to known results for economies with (only) finitely many traders, I find that risk attitudes affect traders' survival and that markets can favor 'lucky' traders with incorrect beliefs over 'skilled' traders with accurate beliefs. My model allows for a clear distinction between luck and skills and it shows that market selection forces induce efficient prices even when accurate traders do not survive in the long run

    Learning from ambiguous and misspecified models

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    We model inter-temporal ambiguity as the scenario in which a Bayesian learner holds more than one prior distribution over a set of models and provide sufficient conditions for ambiguity to fade away because of learning. Our conditions apply to most learning environments: iid and non-iid model-classes, well-specified and misspecified model-classes/prior support pairs. We show that ambiguity fades away if the empirical evidence supports a set of models with identical predictions, a condition much weaker than learning the truth

    Biocalcarenite and mixed cool-water prograding bodies of the Mediterranean Pliocene and Pleistocene: archietcture, depositional setting and forcing factors

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    Plio-Quaternary basinward-prograding heterozoan carbonate wedges with seaward-dipping, steep clinoforms and significant along-strike extension, are common both on land and along the submerged margins of the Mediterranean area. They developed as distally steepened ramps on storm-dominated, relatively steep-gradient margins, commonly controlled by tectonics. Dispersal of the skeletal hash was mainly due to storm-driven downwelling and geostrophic currents, changing into gravity flows down the clinoformed ramp margin. Due to active winnowing and bypass in the shallow-water settings, biocalcarenite ramps were entirely detached from the shoreline. Sequence-stratigraphic architecture of cropping out prograding bodies indicates the presence of internal unconformity surfaces bounding shingled units with sigmoidal to oblique clinoforms. Similar wedges identified by seismic survey on the margins of the Tyrrhenian Sea generally show a back-stepping pattern, with the deeper-located wedges related to the last lowstand and the subsequent wedges reflecting episodic stillstands during sealevel rise. A critical role in determining the efficiency of the carbonate factory is thought to have been played by the increase in the strength of atmospheric and marine circulation which accompanied the long-term climatic change affecting the Mediterranean area since 3.1 Ma, especially during cooler to colder stages
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