44 research outputs found
Improved crop modelling for supporting policy design on climate change impacts, adaptation and mitigation — CropM in MACSUR
No full textClimate change conditions the resource base upon which agricultural production is based, and, as such, it as such also severely impacts the ecosystem services delivered by agricultural production systems. Therefore, climate change considerations are relevant for most of the agriculture-related policies, including the Common Agricultural Policy, the Climate Change Policy, and environmental protection policies such as the Water Framework, Groundwater, and Habitat directives. These policies will require relevant changes in the near future because of how climate change will interact with agricultural production systems, and the FACCE-JPI knowledge hub MACSUR provides some of the knowledge base on which to build such policy changes ; Assessing climate change impacts and adaptation and mitigation options in European agriculture requires the use of a range of models (crop, livestock, economic) and the integration of their results. By joining the work of many (> 40) European research groups in MACSUR, substantial progress in improving and applying models for assessing climate change impacts and adaptations in crop production has been made that can effectively assist policy design and recommendations. The results from such MACSUR research formed part of the scientific bedrock of the COP21 agreement in Paris in 2015. Without MACSUR, the significant European agricultural contribution to the IPCC and UNFCCC would not have been evident ; Areas of progress include the use of crop model ensembles, improved scaling methods, better uncertainty assessment, data generation and model improvements for better capturing effects of extreme and adverse weather, development of context-sensitive adaptive strategies. These efforts have led to robust assessments of climate change impact on crop production and associated effects on ecosystems ; The crop modelling community is now ready for conducting a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts, and to identify adaptation and mitigation options for Europe at multiple scales, in order to play an active role for shaping future European agricultural, environmental and climate policies
MACSUR CropM - progress overview
No full textActivities in the first 1 ½ years of CropM were related to key issues identified as critical at the beginning of the FACCE MACSUR the knowledge Hub. These include: Model intercomparisonGeneration of new data for model improvementMethods for scaling and model linkingUncertainty analysisBuilding research capacity Climate scenario data for crop models The key ambition of CropM has been to develop scientific excellence on methods for a comprehensive assessment of climate change impact, adaptation and policy on European crop production, agriculture and food security. Much progress has been made in developing a first shared continental assessment and tool for: A range of important cropsImportant crop rotationsAdvanced scaling methodsAdvanced link to farm and sector modelsNovel impact uncertainty assessment and reportingState-of-the-art scenario construction A number of concrete studies towards this aim have been launched in CropM workpackages (WPs): WP1-2: Two multi-facetted studies on crop rotation, launched in summer 2013 WP3: comprehensive scaling exercises, launched in March 2013WP4: Studies on (a) Climate scenario development, (b) impact response surface method and (c) Extremes, launched in summer 2013WP5: Analysis of transect across Europe with temperature effect (Space for Time) In addition, extended activities related to capacity building including several PhD courses (WP5) workshops (in WPs1-4) and an International Symposium (10-12 Feb, Oslo, Norway) have been organized. Present and future work is and will be focused on framing and advancing crop modelling as integrated part of comprehensive climate risk assessment and modelling of agricultural systems for food security from farm to supra-national level
CropM - progress overview
No full textActivities in the first 1 ½ years of CropM were related to key issues identified as critical at the beginning of the FACCE MACSUR the knowledge Hub. These include: Model intercomparison,Generation of new data for model improvement, Methods for scaling and model linking, Uncertainty analysis, Building research capacity, Climate scenario data for crop models. The key ambition of CropM has been to develop scientific excellence on methods for a comprehensive assessment of climate change impact, adaptation and policy on European crop production, agriculture and food security. Much progress has been made in developing a first shared continental assessment and tool for: A range of important crops, Important crop rotations, Advanced scaling methods, Advanced link to farm and sector models, Novel impact uncertainty assessment and reporting, State-of-the-art scenario construction. A number of concrete studies towards this aim have been launched in CropM workpackages (WPs): WP1-2: Two multi-facetted studies on crop rotation, launched in summer 2013, WP3: comprehensive scaling exercises, launched in March 2013, WP4: Studies on (a) Climate scenario development, (b) impact response surface method and (c) Extremes, launched in summer 2013, WP5: Analysis of transect across Europe with temperature effect (Space for Time). In addition, extended activities related to capacity building including several PhD courses (WP5) workshops (in WPs1-4) and an International Symposium (10-12 Feb, Oslo, Norway) have been organized. Present and future work is and will be focused on framing and advancing crop modelling as integrated part of comprehensive climate risk assessment and modelling of agricultural systems for food security from farm to supra-national level
Description of the compiled experimental data available in the MACSUR CropM database
No full textThe input data necessary for crop model simulations and data for their calibration/validation (and thus requirements for observations and measurements in suitable experiments) have been collected through out the project together with data for additional analysis of abiotic factors influencing yields. A list of possible dataset was collated in the first year of project however very few of the existing datasets were found usable for the crop model simulation as they fell short of the requirements defined in the part 2.3. However database has been populated as planned with the results of the ongoing MACSUR studies and will serve in the same way for the MACSUR 2 duration
Cross-cutting uncertainties in MACSUR impact projections
No full textProjections into the future, such as climate change impact projections on crop production for a given region, or, on global food prices and trade are inherently uncertain. Uncertainty does not fall within a single discipline but is dealt with by a wide variety of disciplines, themes and problem domains. Model uncertainty pertaining to the impact modelling chain from climate via crop and livestock to economic and trade modelling is only part of the overall uncertainty*. There is also scenario uncertainty and many other known and unknown “unknowns”1 to be considered in efforts such as MACSUR and its themes (CropM, LiveM, TradeM) to advance model-based integrated assessment of climate change risk assessment for agriculture and food security. Propagation of uncertainties along the climate change impact modelling chain has been portrayed as “uncertainty cascade” 2. We will present different basic approaches for evaluating uncertainty in models. So far, studies addressing quantification and reporting of uncertainties in impact projections still largely focus on two major sources, i.e. the shares originating from climate modelling and from crop modelling. However, a more comprehensive treatment of uncertainty and how it is reported is urgently needed
Concepts and methods developed for probabilistic evaluation of a number of alternative adaptation options
No full textThe purpose of this document is to define the protocol for a second study (IRS2) based on impact response surfaces (IRSs) in the frame of CropM/WP4. General considerations of IRS construction are described in the protocol developed for Phase I of the IRS analysis (IRS1)Access to the full document is restricted to MACSUR members until 2015-11-01
Online web tool for data visualization
No full textThis deliverable lays out the work as done as part of MACSUR CropM on data, with the focus on providing a web tool for visualization of model output. It was decided early on that not a specific MACSUR web tool would be developed as part of MACSUR for phase 1, and mostly results would be visualized in other available tools, such as the Global Yield Gap Atlas, which are recognised resources for visualizations. Only in relationship to the MACSUR Geonetwork data catalog hosted at Aarhus University some developments where started. Operationally speaking, most data was still being generated during phase 1, so there was not enough to visualize on specific websites and partners did not commit financial resources to their development, and only in kind was available
MACSUR TradeM Workshop Exploring new ideas for trade and agriculture model integration for assessing the impacts of climate change on food security
No full textThe first TradeM workshop was held at Haifa University (Israel), 3-5 March 2013. It was a state-of-the-art Workshop ‘Economic Modelling on Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security’. Sixteen papers are presented, following a call for abstracts submitted in December 2012. Presented, reviewed and discussed models, their inputs, outputs and main results of case-study analyses let indicate of how the model can be used to analyze the impacts of climate change on food security, how the model can contribute to, and benefit from other economic and/or crop and livestock models and what input is needed from CropM and LiveM . There were explored ideas for closer integration and linkage between agriculture and economic models and between economic models at different levels, addressing issues of model structure, scale and data processing. Focus was on model comparison, gap analysis, scientific advancements and improvements. We also addressed the key challenges of the economic models (macro- versus micro-economics; uncertainty versus risks; variability and distribution), and identified ways to cope with scaling, uncertainty, risks. The workshop let identify the requirements from CropM and LiveM, find policy questions that MACSUR is going to address, start with the content of the case studies and plan for publication of scientific papers. The sessions were broadcast live via the internet. Twenty-four registered participants and about 65 local visitors attended the workshop.This work was co-financed by NCBiR, Contract no. FACCE JPI/04/2012 - P100 PARTNE
Open data journal as a publishing and data sharing mechanism
No full textThis deliverable lays out the work as done as part of MACSUR CropM on data publishing, with the focus on improving data sharing and discovery and have shared data curation for future use. As part of the first phase MACSUR, The Open Data Journal for Agricultural Research (www.odjar.org) was started and documented in Deliverable C2.2 as part of Crop M. Odjar.org mainly focuses on long term data archival and citation of data sets, as input and outputs to the modelling work, as part of MACSUR, lead by Wageningen URThis deliverable is a short update on the process of creating such a data journal by demonstrating a set of articles published through the journal, some of which are based on MACSUR results, as well as related networks. The deliverable does not further explain what the journal is, as this is part of the previous deliverable.
