93 research outputs found
ICT Leapfrogging and Economic Growth Among SAARC Economies: Evidence From Method of Moments Quantile Regression
No full textICT “leapfrogging” is when developing economies adopt the use of technology to jumpstart
their development agenda. This study positions the 2030 United Nations
Sustainable Development Goal 8 to test the leapfrogging hypothesis on eight SAARC
economies (Afghanistan, Bhutan, Bangladesh, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri
Lanka) from 2000 to 2020. We examine if the hypothesis holds using an unbalanced
panel data on real per capita GDP and four ICT indicators (mobile phones, fixed
telephones, fixed broadband, and Internet users). We deploy panel spatial correlation
consistent (PSCC) and method of moments quantile regression (MM-QR) techniques.
The MM-QR offers more reliable results than PSCC because it takes into account the
conditional heterogeneity issues that are understated. The general consensus indicates
that ICT (individual indicators and composite index) exerts a statistically significant
positive effect on economic growth mostly at the 1% level. However, the MM-QR
reveals that: (1) the leapfrogging hypothesis holds for mobile phones and composite
index models; (2) the hypothesis holds only at the lower quantiles of fixed broadband
model; and (3) mobile phones show the largest increasing leapfrogging effect of
0.034%, 0.052%, 0.082%, and 0.099%, respectively. Policy recommendations are
discussed
INSTITUTIONS AND INCLUSIVE GROWTH NEXUS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION
No full textDespite abundant natural resources and a growing youthful population, Sub-Saharan Africa continues to experience sluggish economic growth due to the persistent weakness of institutional structures often manifested through limited regulatory capacity, political instability, and governance deficits—which undermine policy effectiveness, investment climates, and long-term development outcomes. This study investigates the direct and interactive influence of economic institutions and governance in promoting inclusive growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).A panel data of forty-one SSA countries over a period 2007 to 2022 is analysed using system GMM technique. Country selction is based on the availability of consistent and relevant data where the use of lagged variables as instruments are valid. The key findings are: economic institutions matter for stimulating inclusive growth in SSA; the influence of economic institutions is strengthened with good governance; governance has weak direct effect; and good governance have greater impact if complimented with improved economic institutions. This study concludes that while good governance alone has a limited direct impact on inclusive growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, it plays a critical enabling role by amplifying the effectiveness of economic institutions. Hence, sustainable and inclusive development in the region is most achievable through synergistic reforms that concurrently strengthen economic institutions and enhance governance quality. Therefore, it is recommended that policymakers in SSA should undertake institutional reforms that will ensure security of private properties including intellectual property, integrity of government, open and competitive labour market, equal and fair access to finance, conducive business environment, stable prices and reliable currency. While governance should be made more participatory, effective, accountable to the people, and uphold the principles of rule of law
FINANCIAL FRICTION, DOMESTIC CREDIT AND INCOME INEQUALITY IN EMERGING ECONOMIES: COMPARATIVE IV-GMM AND THRESHOLD ANALYSES FROM NIGERIA AND SOUTH AFRICA
No full textThis study comparatively investigates the intrinsic nexus of financial friction (proxied by interest rate spread), domestic credit and income inequality in emerging economies using quarterly time series data on Nigeria and South Africa from 1980 to 2015. It also investigates whether interest spread and domestic credit independently reduce inequality and if inequality responds to domestic credit and interest spread when interest spread is below or above its threshold. Findings revealed that (1) domestic credit aggravates inequality in both countries; (2) the impact of interest spread is asymmetric; (3) interest spread reduces the devastating effect of credit on inequality; and (4) the behavior of inequality with respect to domestic credit and interest spread is mixed given the interest spread threshold. Based on the results, a policy mix approach should be pursued since credit and financial friction exert a heterogeneous impact
Financial Friction, Domestic Credit And Income Inequality In Emerging Economies: Comparative IV-GMM And Threshold Analyses From Nigeria And South Africa
No full textThis study comparatively investigates the intrinsic nexus of financial friction (proxied by interest rate spread), domestic credit and income inequality in emerging economies using quarterly time series data on Nigeria and South Africa from 1980 to 2015. It also investigates whether interest spread and domestic credit independently reduce inequality and if inequality responds to domestic credit and interest spread when interest spread is below or above its threshold. Findings revealed that (1) domestic credit aggravates inequality in both countries; (2) the impact of interest spread is asymmetric; (3) interest spread reduces the devastating effect of credit on inequality; and (4) the behavior of inequality with respect to domestic credit and interest spread is mixed given the interest spread threshold. Based on the results, a policy mix approach should be pursued since credit and financial friction exert a heterogeneous impact.</p
Moderation analysis of exchange rate, tourism and economic growth in Asia
No full textThis study brings novelty to the tourism literature by re-examining the role of exchange rate in the tourism-growth nexus. It differs from previous tourism-led growth narrative to probe whether tourism exerts a positive effect on economic growth when the exchange rate is accounted for. Using a moderation modelling framework, instrumental variables general method of moments (IV-GMM) and quantile regression techniques in addition to real per capita GDP, tourism receipts and exchange rate, the study engages data on 44 Asian countries from 2010 to 2019. Results from the IV-GMM show that: (1) tourism exerts a positive effect on growth; (2) exchange rate depreciation hampers growth; (3) the interaction effect is positive but statistically not significant; and (4) results from EAP and SA samples are mixed. For the most part, constructive evidence from the quantile regression techniques reveals that the impact of tourism and exchange is significant at lower quantiles of 0.25 and 0.50 while the interaction effect is negative and statistically significant only for the SA sample. These are new contributions to the literature and policy recommendations are discussed
ICT Leapfrogging and Economic Growth Among SAARC Economies: Evidence from Method of Moments Quantile Regression
No full textICT “leapfrogging” is when developing economies adopt the use of technology to jump-start their development agenda. This study positions the 2030 United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 8 to test the leapfrogging hypothesis on eight SAARC economies (Afghanistan, Bhutan, Bangladesh, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka) from 2000 to 2020. We examine if the hypothesis holds using an unbalanced panel data on real per capita GDP and four ICT indicators (mobile phones, fixed telephones, fixed broadband, and Internet users). We deploy panel spatial correlation consistent (PSCC) and method of moments quantile regression (MM-QR) techniques. The MM-QR offers more reliable results than PSCC because it takes into account the conditional heterogeneity issues that are understated. The general consensus indicates that ICT (individual indicators and composite index) exerts a statistically significant positive effect on economic growth mostly at the 1% level. However, the MM-QR reveals that: (1) the leapfrogging hypothesis holds for mobile phones and composite index models; (2) the hypothesis holds only at the lower quantiles of fixed broadband model; and (3) mobile phones show the largest increasing leapfrogging effect of 0.034%, 0.052%, 0.082%, and 0.099%, respectively. Policy recommendations are discussed.</p
Financial Friction, Domestic Credit And Income Inequality In Emerging Economies: Comparative IV-GMM And Threshold Analyses From Nigeria And South Africa
No full textThis study comparatively investigates the intrinsic nexus of financial friction (proxied by interest rate spread), domestic credit and income inequality in emerging economies using quarterly time series data on Nigeria and South Africa from 1980 to 2015. It also investigates whether interest spread and domestic credit independently reduce inequality and if inequality responds to domestic credit and interest spread when interest spread is below or above its threshold. Findings revealed that (1) domestic credit aggravates inequality in both countries; (2) the impact of interest spread is asymmetric; (3) interest spread reduces the devastating effect of credit on inequality; and (4) the behavior of inequality with respect to domestic credit and interest spread is mixed given the interest spread threshold. Based on the results, a policy mix approach should be pursued since credit and financial friction exert a heterogeneous impact.</p
Investigating tourism and exchange rate dynamics on economic growth in Sri Lanka
No full textWe re-examine the tourism-growth relationship to interrogate the role of the exchange rate as a future driver of the nexus. Using quarterly data on Sri Lanka from 1995 to 2018, preliminary tests reveal a long-run association among economic growth, tourism expenditures and the official exchange rate. Conclusions drawn from the linear models suggest that a percentage change in tourism expenditures contributes to an increase (between 0.46% and 0.52%) in growth. Likewise, the interaction with the exchange rate improves economic growth more so at the conditional distribution of economic growth (50th and 75th quartile). Additional evidence from the margin plot reveals that the effect of tourism on economic growth is positive as the Sri Lankan Rupee depreciates. From the non-linear models, the influence of the exchange rate improves the net effect of tourism on growth. These are novel contributions to the literature as it suggests that currency depreciation in Sri Lanka is pro-growth. Policy recommendations are discussed.</p
ICT Leapfrogging and Economic Growth Among SAARC Economies: Evidence from Method of Moments Quantile Regression
No full textICT “leapfrogging” is when developing economies adopt the use of technology to jump-start their development agenda. This study positions the 2030 United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 8 to test the leapfrogging hypothesis on eight SAARC economies (Afghanistan, Bhutan, Bangladesh, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka) from 2000 to 2020. We examine if the hypothesis holds using an unbalanced panel data on real per capita GDP and four ICT indicators (mobile phones, fixed telephones, fixed broadband, and Internet users). We deploy panel spatial correlation consistent (PSCC) and method of moments quantile regression (MM-QR) techniques. The MM-QR offers more reliable results than PSCC because it takes into account the conditional heterogeneity issues that are understated. The general consensus indicates that ICT (individual indicators and composite index) exerts a statistically significant positive effect on economic growth mostly at the 1% level. However, the MM-QR reveals that: (1) the leapfrogging hypothesis holds for mobile phones and composite index models; (2) the hypothesis holds only at the lower quantiles of fixed broadband model; and (3) mobile phones show the largest increasing leapfrogging effect of 0.034%, 0.052%, 0.082%, and 0.099%, respectively. Policy recommendations are discussed.</p
A New Form of Authoritarianism? Rethinking Military Politics in Post-1999 Nigeria
No full textDespite the vast research that has been done on the Nigerian military, virtually all of these studies have failed to critically examine the accepted role of the military in the democratising phase. This is important because the relationship between the political elite and the military in post-military authoritarian states guarantees either democratic consolidation, or its reversal. In Nigeria, despite an appearance of significant progress in subordinating the military institution to democratic civilian authority, the military remains a crucial political actor in the polity. It appears that the military has yet to accept the core democratic principles of civilian oversight of the institution. This thesis, therefore, explores whether a new form of military authoritarianism is emerging in Nigeria, with the aim of understanding Nigeria’s military behaviour in a transitional phase, from prolonged military authoritarianism to democratisation. To examine this military behaviour, Alfred Stepan’s concept of military prerogatives that was used to understand the military’s behaviour in a transitional phase in Latin America is applied to Nigeria.
A crucial understanding of authoritarianism in Nigeria is initially discussed in this study using mainly document analysis strategy to examine whether multi-ethnic states, such as Nigeria, tend to have authoritarian systems. Six hypotheses form the core analysis of this thesis: first, that the military has retained significant military prerogatives; second, that retired military officers are gaining influential political and economic positions; third, autonomous military involvement in human rights abuses since 1999; and fourth, that civilian government oversight remains weak, and facilitates military authoritarianism. These hypotheses are primarily analysed using the elite interview technique. During the first half of 2011, the author conducted field research where serving and retired military officers were interviewed. The fifth hypothesis is that the military has intervened in politics post-1999. The examination of this hypothesis relies primarily on key security-related media reports (mostly newspaper editorials) on the military after 1999. The examination of the final hypothesis, that increases in military expenditures might facilitate a new form of military authoritarianism, relies primarily on descriptive statistical analysis. In addition, this study collated relevant historical materials that relate to the military, utilising national archival collections.
The empirical findings of this research did not identify a new form of military authoritarianism in Nigeria. The study, however, argues that the unrestricted institutional framework accorded the military has contributed significantly to authoritarian practices in the post-military era in Nigeria. This study discovered that there were similarities between the Brazilian and Nigerian militaries in regard to their military spending during their period in power. Both countries had lower defence budgets. Just as in Brazil, it appears that part of the reason the Nigerian military decided to relinquish power in 1999 had to do with its desire to gain a higher budget, something that was precluded in a military government struggling to retain a sense of legitimacy. The military needed a higher budget to modernise and re-professionalise its institution after more than a decade in power. This feature, which the Nigerian military shares with the Brazilian military, appears to justify the application to Nigeria of Alfred Stepan’s concept of military prerogatives.
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