1,721,240 research outputs found
The atmospheric moisture budget in the Mediterranean: Mechanisms for seasonal changes in the Last Glacial Maximum and future warming scenario
No full textWe have investigated the sensitivity of the Mediterranean atmospheric moisture budget (P-E) to large global mean temperature changes and the mechanisms for its seasonal changes. Model simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Representative Concentration Pathway rcp8.5 scenario have been compared to pre-Industrial (PI) conditions. We have decomposed (P-E) in thermodynamic, dynamic, transient eddy and surface term. The decomposition revealed that mechanisms for (P-E) changes in the Mediterranean do not follow a simple scaling with temperature from the cold LGM to the warm rcp8.5 and they cannot be described by the thermodynamic contribution associated with the “wet-get-wetter, dry-get-drier” paradigm. Winter changes are caused by the anomalous mean atmospheric circulation. In summer, the thermodynamics provides the largest contribution, but its effect is counteracted by other mechanisms. The Mediterranean response to climate change differs from the averaged behavior of other regions in the same latitudinal belt. The complex spatial interplay of the atmospheric moisture budget contributions results in reduced precipitation in the rcp8.5 and reduced evaporation in the LGM relative to PI. This analysis shows that past (LGM) and future (rcp8.5) atmospheric moisture budget changes have very different basic mechanisms, which cannot be simply linked to changes of global mean temperature
The effect of cyclones crossing the Mediterranean region on sea level anomalies on the Mediterranean Sea coast
No full textLarge positive and negative sea level anomalies on the coast of the Mediterranean Sea are linked to intensity and position of cyclones moving along the Mediterranean storm track with dynamics involving different factors. This analysis is based on a model hindcast and considers nine coastal stations, which are representative of sea level anomalies with different magnitudes and characteristics. When a shallow water fetch is present, the wind around the cyclone centre is the main cause of positive and negative sea level anomalies, depending on its onshore or offshore direction. The inverse barometer effect produces a positive anomaly on the coast near the cyclone pressure minimum and a negative anomaly at the opposite side of the Mediterranean Sea. The latter is caused by the cross-basin mean sea level pressure gradient that is associated with the presence of a cyclone. This often coincides with the presence of an anticyclone above the station, which causes a local negative inverse barometer effect. Further, at some stations, negative sea level anomalies are reinforced by a residual water mass redistribution within the basin, which is associated with a transient response to the atmospheric pressure forcing. Though the link with the presence of a cyclone in the Mediterranean has comparable importance for positive and negative anomalies, the relation between cyclone position and intensity is stronger for the magnitude of positive events. The area of cyclogenesis, track of the central minimum and position at the time of the event differ depending on the location the sea level anomaly occurs and on its sign. The western Mediterranean is the main cyclogenesis area for both positive and negative anomalies overall. Atlantic cyclones mainly produce positive sea level anomalies in the western basin. At the easternmost stations, positive anomalies are caused by cyclogenesis in the eastern Mediterranean. North African cyclogenesis is a major source of positive anomalies on the central African coast and negative anomalies on the eastern Mediterranean and northern Aegean coasts
Flooding of Sandy Beaches in a Changing Climate. The Case of the Balearic Islands (NW Mediterranean)
No full textThe fate of the beaches around the world has paramount importance as they are one of the main assets for touristic activities and act as a natural barrier for coastal protection in front of marine storms. Climate change could put them at risk as sea levels rise and changes in the wave characteristics may dramatically modify their shape. In this work, a new methodology has been developed to determine the flooding of sandy beaches due to changes in sea level and waves. The methodology allows a cost-effective and yet accurate estimation of the wave runup for a wide range of beach equilibrium profiles and for different seagrass coverage. This, combined with regional projections of sea level and wave evolution, has allowed a quantification of the future total water level and coastline retreat for 869 beaches across the Balearic Islands for the next decades as a function of greenhouse gases emission scenario. The most pessimistic scenario (RCP8.5) at the end of the century yields an averaged percentage of flooded area of 66% under mean conditions which increases up to 86% under extreme conditions. Moreover, 72 of the 869 beaches of the region would permanently disappear while 314 would be completely flooded during storm episodes. Under a moderate scenario of emissions (RCP4.5), 37 beaches would permanently disappear while 254 would disappear only during storm episodes. In both cases, the average permanent loss of beach surface at the end of the century would be larger than 50%, rising over 80% during storm conditions. The results obtained for the Balearic Islands can be extrapolated to the rest of the Mediterranean as the beaches in all the regions have similar characteristics and will be affected by similar changes in sea level and wave climate. These projections indicate that adaptation plans for beach areas should be put in place as soon as possible
On the relation between the potential vorticity and the Montgomery function in the ventilated ocean thermocline
No full textA statistical investigation of mesoscale precursors of significant tornadoes: The Italian case study
No full textIn this study, mesoscale environments associated with 57 significant tornadoes occurring over Italy in the period 2000-2018 are analyzed. The role of the vertical Wind Shear in the lower and middle troposphere, in terms of low-level shear (LLS) and deep-level shear (DLS), and of the convective available potential energy (CAPE) as possible precursors of significant tornadoes is statistically investigated. Wind shear and CAPE data are extracted from the ERA-5 and ERA-Interim reanalyses. Overall, the study indicates that: (a) values of these variables in the two uppermost quartiles of their statistical distribution significantly increases the probability of tornado occurrences; (b) the probability increases for increasing values of LLS and DLS, and (c) is maximum when either wind shear or CAPE are large. These conclusions hold for both the reanalysis datasets and do not depend upon the season and/or the considered area. With the possible exception of weak tornadoes, which are not included in our study, our results show that large wind shear, in the presence of medium-to-high values of CAPE, are reliable precursors of tornadoes
Brief communication: Towards a universal formula for the probability of tornadoes
Full text linkA methodological approach is proposed to provide an analytical (exponential-like) expression for the probability of occurrence of tornadoes as a function of the convective available potential energy and the wind shear (or, alternatively, the storm relative helicity). The resulting expression allows the probability of tornado occurrence to be calculated using variables that are computed by weather prediction and climate models, thus compensating for the lack of resolution needed to resolve these phenomena in numerical simulations
Verification of an ensemble prediction system for storm surge forecast in the Adriatic Sea
No full textIn the Adriatic Sea, storm surges present a significant threat to Venice and to the flat coastal areas of the northern coast of the basin. Sea level forecast is of paramount importance for the management of daily activities and for operating the movable barriers that are presently being built for the protection of the city. In this paper, an EPS (ensemble prediction system) for operational forecasting of storm surge in the northern Adriatic Sea is presented and applied to a 3-month-long period (October–December 2010). The sea level EPS is based on the HYPSE (hydrostatic Padua Sea elevation) model, which is a standard single-layer nonlinear shallow water model, whose forcings (mean sea level pressure and surface wind fields) are provided by the ensemble members of the ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) EPS. Results are verified against observations at five tide gauges located along the Croatian and Italian coasts of the Adriatic Sea. Forecast uncertainty increases with the predicted value of the storm surge and with the forecast lead time. The EMF (ensemble mean forecast) provided by the EPS has a rms (root mean square) error lower than the DF (deterministic forecast), especially for short (up to 3 days) lead times. Uncertainty for short lead times of the forecast and for small storm surges is mainly caused by uncertainty of the initial condition of the hydrodynamical model. Uncertainty for large lead times and large storm surges is mainly caused by uncertainty in the meteorological forcings. The EPS spread increases with the rms error of the forecast. For large lead times the EPS spread and the forecast error substantially coincide. However, the EPS spread in this study, which does not account for uncertainty in the initial condition, underestimates the error during the early part of the forecast and for small storm surge values. On the contrary, it overestimates the rms error for large surge values. The PF (probability forecast) of the EPS has a clear skill in predicting the actual probability distribution of sea level, and it outperforms simple “dressed” PF methods. A probability estimate based on the single DF is shown to be inadequate. However, a PF obtained with a prescribed Gaussian distribution and centered on the DF value performs very similarly to the EPS-based P
On the role of a finite density jump at the bottom of the quasi-continuous ventilated thermocline
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