27,837 research outputs found

    Spatial Chow-Lin Methods for Data Completion in Econometric Flow Models

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    Flow data across regions can be modeled by spatial econometric models, see LeSage and Pace (2009). Recently, regional studies became interested in the aggregation and disaggregation of flow models, because trade data cannot be obtained at a disaggregated level but data are published on an aggregate level. Furthermore, missing data in disaggregated flow models occur quite often since detailed measurements are often not possible at all observation points in time and space. In this paper we develop classical and Bayesian methods to complete flow data. The Chow and Lin (1971) method was developed for completing disaggregated incomplete time series data. We will extend this method in a general framework to spatially correlated flow data using the cross-sectional Chow-Lin method of Polasek et al. (2009). The missing disaggregated data can be obtained either by feasible GLS prediction or by a Bayesian (posterior) predictive density.Missing values in spatial econometrics, MCMC, non-spatial Chow-Lin (CL) and spatial Chow-Lin (SCL) methods, spatial internal flow (SIF) models, origin and destination (OD) data

    SPATIAL CHOW-LIN METHODS: BAYESIAN AND ML FORECAST COMPARISONS

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    Completing data that are collected in disaggregated and heterogeneous spatial units is a quite frequent problem in spatial analyses of regional data. Chow and Lin (1971) (CL) were the rst to develop a uni ed framework for the three problems (interpolation, extrapolation and distribution) of predicting disaggregated times series by so-called indicator series. This paper develops a spatial CL procedure for disaggregating cross-sectional spatial data and compares the Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian spatial CL forecasts with the naive pro rata error distribution. We outline the error covariance structure in a spatial context, derive the BLUE for the ML estimator and the Bayesian estimation procedure by MCMC. Finally we apply the procedure to European regional GDP data and discuss the disaggregation assumptions. For the evaluation of the spatial Chow-Lin procedure we assume that only NUTS 1 GDP is known and predict it at NUTS 2 by using employment and spatial information available at NUTS 2. The spatial neighborhood is de ned by the inverse travel time by car in minutes. Finally, we present the forecast accuracy criteria comparing the predicted values with the actual observations.

    Metadata Representations for Queryable ML Model Zoos

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    Machine learning (ML) practitioners and organizations are building model zoos of pre-trained models, containing metadata describing properties of the ML models and datasets that are useful for reporting, auditing, reproducibility, and interpretability purposes. The metatada is currently not standardised; its expressivity is limited; and there is no interoperable way to store and query it. Consequently, model search, reuse, comparison, and composition are hindered. In this paper, we advocate for standardized ML model metadata representation and management, proposing a toolkit supported to help practitioners manage and query that metadata.Web Information SystemsHuman-Centred Artificial Intelligenc

    A Manifesto of Nodalism

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    This paper proposes the notion of Nodalism as a means describing contemporary culture and of understanding my own creative practice in electronic music composition. It draws on theories and ideas from Kirby, Bauman, Bourriaud, Deleuze, Guatarri, and Gochenour, to demonstrate how networks of ideas or connectionist neural models of cognitive behaviour can be used to contextualize, understand and become a creative tool for the creation of contemporary electronic music
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