2,569,126 research outputs found
Silver City, Aubrey Lee, Jr.
No full textThree year old Aubrey sits atop his burro in front of the Lee home.8 bit; 810 ppi; ScanMaker 9800X
Lee-Carter mortality forecasting: a multi-country comparison of variants and extensions
Get PDFWe compare the short- to medium-term accuracy of five variants or extensions of the Lee-Carter method for mortality forecasting. These include the original Lee-Carter, the Lee-Miller and Booth-Maindonald-Smith variants, and the more flexible Hyndman-Ullah and De Jong-Tickle extensions. These methods are compared by applying them to sex-specific populations of 10 developed countries using data for 1986-2000 for evaluation. All variants and extensions are more accurate than the original Lee-Carter method for forecasting log death rates, by up to 61%. However, accuracy in log death rates does not necessarily translate into accuracy in life expectancy. There are no significant differences among the five methods in forecast accuracy for life expectancy.Functional data, Lee-Carter method, mortality forecasting, nonparametric smoothing, principal components, state space.
Examining structural shifts in mortality using the Lee-Carter method
Get PDFWe present an extension of the Lee-Carter method of modeling mortality to examine structural shifts in trajectories of mortality. Austrian data consisting of 53 years of single-age mortality rates are subdivided into 30 24-year submatrices. Using singular value decomposition, the submatrices are decomposed into three component submatrices: 1) the multiple realizations of the index of mortality to which each respective age-specific death rate is linearly related; 2) the average shape across age of the log of mortality schedules; 3) the sensitivity of the log of mortality at each age to variations in the elements of the index of mortality. We refer to these latter submatrices to locate structural changes in mortality patterns. A comparison of the observed and estimated life expectancy indicates that the extended Lee-Carter method is superior to the original Lee-Carter method, particularly so for life expectancies at higher ages. We conclude by projecting life expectancy up to 2050, applying the Lee-Carter method to the whole time series (1947-1999) and comparing it to an application of the Lee-Carter method to the latest subsample (1976-1999). (AUTHORS)
Lee-Carter mortality forecasting: a multi-country comparison of variants and extensions
Get PDFWe compare the short- to medium-term accuracy of five variants or extensions of the Lee-Carter method for mortality forecasting. These include the original Lee-Carter, the Lee-Miller and Booth-Maindonald-Smith variants, and the more flexible Hyndman-Ullah and De Jong-Tickle extensions. These methods are compared by applying them to sex-specific populations of 10 developed countries using data for 1986-2000 for evaluation. All variants and extensions are more accurate than the original Lee-Carter method for forecasting log death rates, by up to 61%. However, accuracy in log death rates does not necessarily translate into accuracy in life expectancy. There are no significant differences among the five methods in forecast accuracy for life expectancy.functional data, Lee-Carter method, mortality forecasting, nonparametric smoothing, principal components, state space
Composite research and development in Korea
No full textThe recent research and development activities of some laboratories working on composite materials in universities (KAIST, Seoul National Univ., Postech, Gyeongsang National Univ.), research institutes (KIMM, KARI), and companies (Hankuk Fiber, DACC) are introduced in this article. Their activities cover a broad range of research and development fields in composite materials: design and fabrication; processing technology; structural analysis; characterization of composite materials; NDE; fiber optic structures; damage detection; health monitoring; smart structures and so on. These technologies will be increasingly used in various fields and the development of these technologies will play an important role in future industries.The author acknowledges the assistance of several university laboratories, the
composite group in KIMM, and the aircraft division of KARI, Hankuk Fiber, and DACC
Letter to Charles Lee Hill
No full textE.B. Cannan from Conroe Independent School District writes this letter to Charles Lee Hill. The typed letter discusses E.B. Cannan's thanks to Charles Lee Hill and "The Houstonians" for appearing with the junior and senior high school bands in a music exhibition. The letter is in blue ink and the body of the letter is in black ink
Student Letters to Charles Lee Hill
No full textThere are two handwritten letters in pencil attached to the tan sheet of paper. The first letter is in cursive and is from Miss Nakes to Charles Lee Hill. The letter discusses Miss Nakes' wish for Charles Lee Hill to get well. The second letter is in print and is from Patty Stephens to Charles Lee Hill. The letter was dated December 6th with an unknown year. The letter discusses Patty Stephens' wish for Charles Lee Hill to get well and that singing Christmas tunes in music class isn't the same without him
Music Pamphlet About Charles Lee Hill
No full textThe blue stapled pamphlet is about Charles Lee Hill's contributions to music. The pamphlet provides a listing of books Charles Lee Hill was referred to, his recordings, his known musical works, his published arrangments, a brief biography, and libraries that hold his memorabilia. The front cover of the music pamphlet about Charles Lee Hill is blue with black text and silhouetted musicians playing their instruments in black
Charles Lee Hill Headhsots
No full textThe tan sheet of paper has two black and white headshots of Charles Lee Hill in a suit. Each of the headshots has a white border
Charles Lee Hill Headhsots
No full textThe tan sheet of paper has two black and white headshots of Charles Lee Hill in a suit. Each of the headshots has a white border
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