2,949 research outputs found
Analyzing Zipf’s Law: Reflections on Power Law or Sigmoid Distribution
No full textThe Urban hierarchy has often been explained with Zipf’s law, a par-ticular form of the power law where the shape parameter tends to equal 1. There is a large literature on the applicability of Zipf’s law to different spatial and his-torical contexts, which is generally valid but not optimal. In fact, there is a wide debate about whether the mathematical form expressed by Zipf’s Law is the best distribution to represent urban hierarchies since this function seems to decline in its ability to represent the “fat tail” of the distribution curve. The objective of this study is to show there is a distribution function potentially better than Zipf that is based on a sigmoid function. This particular function represents the hierarchy between urban centers, even the smallest ones, in a much more accurate way. The use of this function overcomes the problems arising when adopting a Pareto func-tion-which is valid only for the group of major cities-either a log-normal one or a combination of both. The sigmoid function has been applied to a sample of European countries, showing constant application validity
A Forecasting Econometric Model for Regional GDP
No full textThis study advances an empirically tested macroeconomic model developed for regional economies of Italy. Firstly, it is briefly recalled the reference literature in the field of regional forecasting modeling. Subsequently, we mark the utility, for a local government, to have forecasting instrument built just on peculiarity of its territory. One of the key features of the model is the joint representation of the economy on both the demand and the supply sides with a system of multiple regional estimation equations. Another relevant feature of the model is its public financial section, developed in detail both for revenues and taxes. After documenting the estimation outcomes with an in-sample simulation, we show some response functions of the model to a positive shock on public expenditure
Italian Regional Econometric Model
No full textThis paper shifts studies on macroeconomic models from a national to a regional scope. Regions, indeed, often follow growth trajectories that differ greatly from others within the same country. In this study we propose a macroeconometric model for 20 economies corresponding to the Italian administrative Regions. We called it: IREM (Italian Regional Econometric Model). We illustrate the general structure and properties of IREM, especially with regard to the economy’s response to changes in regional fiscal policy, technological advances and other dimensions of the economic environment. One of the model’s key features is the joint representation of the economy on both the demand and the supply side with a multiple estimating equations system calibrated at regional level. Public finance is designed in great detail, with multiple specific equations for local government expenses and revenues, using the Italian database CPT (Conti Pubblici Territoriali). After documenting the model structure and the estimation results with an in-sample simulation, we turn to illustrate the model properties through the study of its response functions to multiple shocks
Planning Survey Research
No full textPart of Oxfam's Research Guidelines series, this guideline gives an overview of how to plan survey research, one of the most widely used tools in research for development. Properly designed survey research is vital to development work because it allows researchers to gather accurate quantitative data on a variety of topics, helping to give development projects and decisions a stronger evidence base. The guideline covers the most important steps in the survey process, including, sampling, questionnaire design, data collection and data analysis. This guideline was written in 2015 by Simone Lombardini and edited by Martin Walsh. It was updated in 2019 by Martin Walsh. </p
Discrezionalità medica e iatrogenesi istituzionale: i parti cesarei in Italia
No full textMedical discretion and institutional iatrogenesis: the case of C-sections in Italy Medical professionals are an emblematic example of street-level bureaucracy. By dealing with health and illness issues, their actions have a considerable impact on people’s lives, as is the case for other street-level bureaucrats. This article focuses on professional discretion in maternity health care services, and investigates the occurrence of cesarean section, in a comparative perspective with special reference to the Italian case. In EU member states, public health policies are explicitly aimed at reducing caesarean delivery to 15 percent, in line with the World Health Organization (WHO 2018) indications. Higher caesarean section rates are considered responsible for rising health costs, as well as increased health risks for women and newborns not only during birth, but, from a life-course perspective, in their subsequent health pathways. However, the implementation
of this policy highlights great variation across Europe that can be related to the different institutional contexts. The case of Italy witnesses also major regional and sub-regional variation. In contrast to crystal-clear WHO and national indications, the relevant statistical data show very high rates of C-sections in Southern Italy, suggesting inappropriate medical behavior. Professionals’ discretionary margins are so wide that further variation can be observed within the same region. The evidence presented in the article supports the conclusion that professional discretion can potentially harm women and children’s health – an example of professional freedom that leads to a perverse iatrogenic effect, and stresses the importance of investigating street-level bureaucracy
in policy implementation processes, and shedding light on the gap between institutional and professional mandates
Financial bubbles as a recursive process lead by short-term strategies
No full textThis paper provides an explanation for the generation of Bubbles in financial markets with heterogeneous agents. We present a game theoretical model that formalises the interactions between two different types of investors: noise traders and fundamental traders, forming their respective expectations on the basis of different rational investment strategies. The model also provides an interpretation framework for periods of euphoria followed by sudden collapse in stock prices. The main predictions of this work are robustly supported by an empirical analysis conducted on a monthly historical time series taken from the S&P500 index, starting from 1954 up to 2019
Discrezionalità medica e iatrogenesi istituzionale: i parti cesarei in Italia
No full textMedical professionals are an emblematic example of street-level bureaucracy. By dealing with health and illness issues, their actions have a considerable impact on people’s lives, as is the case for other street-level bureaucrats. This article focuses on professional discretion in maternity health care services, and investigates the occurrence of cesarean section, in a comparative perspective with special reference to the Italian case. In EU member states, public health policies are explicitly aimed at reducing caesarean delivery to 15 percent, in line with the World Health Organization (WHO 2018) indications.
Higher caesarean section rates are considered responsible for rising health costs, as well as increased health risks for women and newborns not only during birth, but, from a life-course perspective, in their subsequent health pathways. However, the implementation of this policy highlights great variation across Europe that can be related to the different institutional contexts. The case of Italy witnesses also major regional and sub-regional variation. In contrast to crystal-clear WHO and national indications, the relevant statistical data show very high rates of C-sections in Southern Italy, suggesting inappropriate medical behavior. Professionals’ discretionary margins are so wide that further variation can be observed within the same region. The evidence presented in the article supports the conclusion that professional discretion can potentially harm women and children’s health – an example of professional freedom that leads to a perverse
iatrogenic effect, and stresses the importance of investigating street-level bureaucracy in policy implementation processes, and shedding light on the gap between institutional and professional mandates
General practitioners in front of COVID-19: Italy in European comparative perspective
No full textCOVID-19 has highlighted strengths and weaknesses in healthcare systems all over the word. Despite the differences in primary care models in Europe, this study investigates the state-of-the-art of general practitioners (GPs) before the COVID-19 pandemic spread as a result of the reform process of the previous two decades. The GPs numbers over 100,000 inhabitants has been considered as a proxy of public health investment in GPs. Is the number of GPs increased or decreased in the last 20 years of reform processes in European countries? The main hypothesis is that European healthcare systems would have increased the number of GPs coherently with WHO recommendations. Comparative data on the number of GPs per 100,000 inhabitants in 21 European countries are investigated between 1995 and 2014 (the last available data). Data show that the number of family doctors over 100,000 inhabitants in European countries has increased over the last 20 years, except for Italy, where it has strongly reduced. Primary care has had a crucial role in managing the pandemic. Results of this study suggest that a country such as Italy, which has not invested in family doctors in the last two decades, would have been less equipped to manage the COVID-19 pandemic
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