730 research outputs found
Choralbuch für Schulen : zwei- und dreistimmig bearbeitet / von Carl Abela, Cantor an der Haupt- und Oberpfarrkirche zu U. L. Frauen und Gesanglehrer an den Schulen der Francke'schen Stiftungen zu Halle ; nach dessen Tode vervollständigt und herausgegeben von L. Thieme, Organist zu U. L. Frauen
No full textTitelseite einseitig bedrucktVorlageform der Veröffentlichungsangabe: Halle, Verlag der Buchhandlung des Waisenhauses. 1842 . - Vorliegende Form (Kolophon): Druck von William Semmler in Hall
Computational Methods in Economic Dynamics
No full textDawid H, Semmler W, eds. Computational Methods in Economic Dynamics. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer; 2011
Thresholds in a credit market model with multiple equilibria
No full textGrüne L, Semmler W, Sieveking M. Thresholds in a credit market model with multiple equilibria. Diskussionspapier - Fakultät für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Universität Bielefeld. Bielefeld: Fakultät für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Universität Bielefeld; 2001.The paper studies a credit market model with endogenous credit cost and debt constraints in which multiple candidates for steady state equilibria arise. We use dynamic programming (DP) with exible grid size to locate thresholds that separate different domains of attraction. More specifically, we employ DP to (1) compute present value borrowing constraints and thus creditworthiness, (2) locate thresholds where the dynamics separate to different domains of attraction, (3) distinguish between optimal and non-optimal steady states and (5) demonstrate how the thresholds change with change of the credit cost function of the debtor and (6) explore the impact of debt ceilings and consumption paths on creditworthiness. The analytics is provided for a general model and some generic results are presented for a one state variable problem
"Wavelet-based" Early Warning Signals of Financial Stress: an Application to IMF's AE-FSI
No full textThe objective of this paper is to propose a new methodology for the construction of early warning composite indicators that is able to exploit all available information conveyed by individual indicators taking advantage of the multiresolution decomposition properties of wavelet analysis. In this paper we construct a “wavelet-based” early 35 warning indicator of financial stress for the IMF financial stress index for advanced economies developed in Cardarelli et al.(2009).Specifically, for each country of the sample we construct a “wavelet-based” early warning indicator of financial stress by aggregating several “scale-based” sub-indices whose components are selected on the basis of their statistical performance at each frequency band. The empirical evidence suggests that: (1) the “general fit” of the early warning indicators in relation to the financial stress index is rather good, with an average lead of about 2 months; and (2) the “wavelet-based” composite indicator largely outperforms any individual financial variable taken in isolation in predicting financial stress at every horizon, with the gain increasing as the time horizon increases
Responsible AI means keeping humans in the loop
No full textThis essay is an extract in Responsible AI: Your questions answered. This collection of short papers developed by the Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering (ATSE) and the Australian Institute for Machine Learning (AIML) at The University of Adelaide offers an insight into the world of responsible artificial intelligence and the opportunities this presents to Australia.Carolyn Semmler and Lana Tikhomiro
Emission Trading Systems and technological innovation: a random matching model
No full textThe present article investigates the functioning of an Emission Trading System (ETS) and its impact on the diffusion of environmental-friendly technological innovation in the presence of firms' strategic behaviours and sanctions to non-compliant firms. For this purpose, we study an evolutionary game model with random matching, namely, a context in which a population of firms interact through pairwise random matchings. We assume that each firm has to decide whether to adopt a new clean technology or keep on using the old technology that requires pollution permits to operate and that the strategy whose expected payoff is greater than the average payoff spreads within the population at the expense of the alternative strategy (the so-called replicator dynamics).
We investigate the technological dynamics and the stationary states that emerge from the model. From the analysis of the model, we show that by properly modifying the penalty on non-compliant firms, it is possible to shift from one dynamic regime to another and that an increase in permits trade can promote the diffusion of innovative pollution-free technologies
Endogenous Economic Resilience, Loss of Resilience, Persistent Cycles, Multiple Attractors, and Disruptive Contractions
No full textWe evaluate Brunnermeier’s theory of resilience in the context of
complex system dynamics where, however, there can be local and global
resilience, vulnerability, loss of resilience, cycles, disruptive contractions,
and persistent traps. In the paper, we refer to three time scales. First, for
shorter time scales, for the short-run market dynamics, we evaluate resilience
in the context of complex market dynamics that have been studied in the history of economic theory for long. Second, with respect to a business cycle
medium-term dynamics, we analytically study an endogenous cycle model,
built upon Semmler and Sieveking (1993, Journal of Economic Behavior &
Organization, 22(2), 189-208) and Semmler and Koçkesen (2017, Technical
report, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics), and
discuss the issue of loss of stability, corridor stability, multiple attractors, and
trapping dynamics also in the light of complex dynamics. In a financial-real
business cycle model, we demonstrate forces that indeed can exhibit multiple
dynamic features such as local resilience, known as corridor stability, but
also other dynamic phenomena. Corridor stability pertains to small shocks
with no lasting effects, but large enough shocks can lead to persistent cycles
and/or contractions. We refer to the Hopf and Bautin bifurcation theorems, to
establish corridor stability, and local resilience, for the interaction of real and
financial variables where the trajectories can be stable or unstable in the
vicinity of the equilibrium. Thus they can switch dynamic behavior for small
or large shocks. Similar complex dynamic phenomena can be obtained from
Kaleckian-Kaldorian nonlinear real business cycle models, particularly when
time delays are allowed. Third, whereas the analytical study of the dynamics
is undertaken for the above second time scale, for the longer time scale we
study, in the context of multiple equilibria models, the issue of thresholds, tipping points and disruptive contractions, and persistence of traps
Poverty Traps and Disaster Insurance in a Bi-level Decision Framework
No full textIn this paper we study mechanisms of poverty traps that can occur after large disaster shocks. Our starting point is a stylized deterministic dynamic model with locally increasing returns to scale possibly generating multiple equilibria paths with finite upper equilibrium. The deterministic dynamics is then overlayed by random dynamics where catastrophic events happen at random points of time. The number of events follows a Poisson process, whereas the proportional capital losses (given a catastrophic event) are beta distributed. In a setup with fixed insurance premium per unit of insured capital, a fraction of the capital might be insured, and this fraction may change after each event. We seek for an optimal strategy with respect to the insured fraction.
Falling below the instable equilibrium of the deterministic dynamics
introduces the possibility of ending up in a poverty trap after
the disaster shocks. We show that the trapping probability (over
an infinite time horizon) is equal to one when the stable upper
equilibrium of the deterministic dynamics is finite. This is true
regardless of the chosen amount of insured capital. Optimization
then is done with the expected discounted capital after the next
catastrophic event as the objective. Our model may also be useful
to assess risk premia and creditworthiness of borrowers when a
sequence of shocks at uncertain times and of uncertain size occurs
Fiscal policy, public expenditure composition, and growth theory and empirics
No full textThis paper responds to the development policy debate involving the World Bank and the IMF on the use of fiscal policy not only for economic stabilization but also to promote economic growth and increase per capita income. A key issue in this debate relates to the effect of the composition of public expenditure on economic growth. Policy makers and some researchers have argued that expenditure on growth-enhancing functions could enhance future revenue and justify the provision of"fiscal space"in the budget. But there are no simple ways to identify the growth-maximizing composition of public expenditure. The current paper lays out a research strategy to explore the effects of fiscal policy, including the composition of public expenditure, on economic growth, using a time series approach. Based on the modeling strategy of Greiner, Semmler and Gong (2005) we develop a general model that features a government that undertakes public expenditure on (a) education and health facilities which enhance human capital, (b) public infrastructure such as roads and bridges necessary for market activity, (c) public administration to support government functions, (d) transfers and public consumption facilities, and (e) debt service. The proposed model is numerically solved, calibrated and the impact of the composition of public expenditure on the long-run per capita income explored for low-, lower-middle- and upper-middle-income countries. Policy implications and practical policy rules are spelled out, the extension to an estimable model indicated, a debt sustainability test proposed, and the out-of-steady-state dynamics studied.Economic Theory&Research,Debt Markets,,Public Sector Expenditure Analysis&Management,Access to Finance
Gubel (E.), André-Leicknam (B.), Aubet-Semmler (M.-E. ), Badre (L.). Bordreuil (P.), Bunnens (G.), Caubet (A.), Falsone (G.), Fernandez (J.H.), Limme (L.), Lipinski (E.), Naster (P.), et Servais-Soyer (B.). - Les Phéniciens et le Monde méditerranéen. - Catalogue de l'exposition tenue à Bruxelles (6/3-6/5 86) et à Luxembourg (21/5-6/7 86). 1986
No full textAudouze Françoise. Gubel (E.), André-Leicknam (B.), Aubet-Semmler (M.-E. ), Badre (L.). Bordreuil (P.), Bunnens (G.), Caubet (A.), Falsone (G.), Fernandez (J.H.), Limme (L.), Lipinski (E.), Naster (P.), et Servais-Soyer (B.). - Les Phéniciens et le Monde méditerranéen. - Catalogue de l'exposition tenue à Bruxelles (6/3-6/5 86) et à Luxembourg (21/5-6/7 86). 1986. In: Les Nouvelles de l'archéologie, n°25, automne 1986. L'archéologie dans l'enseignement primaire et secondaire. pp. 124-125
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