1,720,992 research outputs found
case study of a leading pharmaceutical company
No full textIn this competitive market environment proper product forecasting is a key element for the significant growth of the company. This case study focuses on factors effecting Adult Diaper sales in a reputed pharmaceutical company in Sri Lanka. To face high competition among competitors, organization need to come up with a strategy which can mitigate the above situation. The aim of this study was to explore existing demand factors effecting the diapers segment of the organization, in order to suggest feasible attributes that can be integrated into the enhancement of adult diapers forecast technique in the organization.
In a research the theoretical framework plays a greater role so as to conduct the research. In this study, it is straight forward to determine the factors affecting the accurate forecasting of demand of adult diapers. According to the study, dependent variable is demand of adult diapers whereas independent variables are factors affecting the accurate forecasting of demand of adult diapers.
To gather factors effecting adult diaper sales forecast, had to go through with a thorough literature survey. To further verify the factors found from the literature survey, pilot survey was conducted in open forum which participants for the survey representing different industries. With high rate of score for each factor, same pilot survey factors were taken into the primary survey. The primary survey was done within the organization (internally conducted survey) and gathering information with in the sample population is more accurate.
According to findings, seven factors identified as critical factors having an impact on the diapers forecast. Those factors are poor prediction reliability, unawareness of importance of forecasting, no one is accountable for demand forecast, poor communication among relevant parties when forecasting, planning done around the goals which do not become reality, sales figures did not reflecting the actual demand pattern, product planning issues. Factors were validated through the literature survey. Applicability to local context is validated from the pilot survey.
While using EViews 7, Six years sales data were evaluated. Based on observation all four segments of the adult diapers consist of ARIMA (0,1,1) data models. Further evaluation of the ARIMA model used and based on that for each unit forecasting model was developed. This will provide better solution to the stock out and over stock situation of the organization
Development and testing of s set of mathematical models for travel demand estimation
No full textRegional traffic models are a useful tool in planning transport infrastructure in keeping with anticipated human settlement patterns and activities. The amount and nature of travel depend on the population size, income level and type of employment etc in the region. Therefore, by correlating the trip generations with socio-economic parameters, it is possible to develop mathematical models to predict the travel demand in terms of socio-economic variables.
The objective of this study is to develop a family of trip generation models for the Colombo Metropolitan Region to estimate travel demand for work, education and other purposes by available motorized forms of transport. While the main focus is on
estimation of bus passenger demand, another set of models is calibrated estimate aggregate demand for bus, rail, car, motor cycle and three - wheeler travel. Finally, a
mode choice model is developed to estimate the variation of bus passenger modal share for work trips in terms of availability of rail and private vehicles.
The regression facility available with SPSS V.1 0 software was used for the calibration of the models. Statistical testing methods such as R2 value, F-statistic, t-statistic and residual analysis were used to identify the best predictor models.
The calibrated traffic generation models can be used for estimating future trip generations in the Colombo Metropolitan Region. In addition, these models may be used for trip generation estimates for other geographic regions after validating for such regions
Effect of economic and social aspects in sustainable supply chain management in apparel industry
No full textApparel industry being a labor sensitive arena in the global market, the social sustainability conscious global consumers are demanding for transparency along the global apparel supply chain. Meanwhile, the outsourced apparel manufacturing in developing countries such as Sri Lanka, Bangladesh along with other local manufacturers are seeking for economic improvements despite the attention towards sustainability practices. However, the social sustainability practices resulting in improved economic performance is an under investigated arena both in the operational and research level. Hence this research fills the gap of exploring the effect of social sustainability on the economic sustainability of the apparel supply chain.
The inputs from industry experts were gathered and analyzed while initiating to develop a common framework for social sustainability and economic sustainability dimensions under the Global Goals (UN SDGs). Further, a survey was conducted in order to understand the socially and economically sustainable practices in the Sri Lankan apparel supply chain. Finally, the relationship between social and economic sustainability dimension was explored using Partial Least Square Structural Equation Modelling (PLS SEM) technique.
The best social sustainability performance was well reflected by the actions of exporting apparel manufacturers compared to the local apparel manufacturers. However, it was revealed that the social sustainability practices are resulting in the economic performance improvements of the apparel manufacturers in the Sri Lankan context
A Study of pedestrian safety in Sri Lanka
No full textPedestrian fatalities in Sri Lanka account for 40% of all road deaths. In Colombo district this is as high as 70%. Of all casualties of road accidents, pedestrians constitute 39%. The majority of the victims are in their prime age of between 20 to 35 years. (Police Accident Report, 1996) According to the Ministry of Health, among the leading causes of hospitalization, accident injury is ranked second highest. (Health Bulletin,1995). A survey conducted at the National Hospital, Colombo, reported that victims of road traffic accident occupied 24% of the beds in the accident ward. The cost of traffic accidents has been estimated to be 0.5 to 1 percent of GPD. (Fernando & Fernando,1994). In industrial countries road traffic accidents have long been recognized as a major cause of death and more emphasis on protecting the most vulnerable road user, particularly the pedestrian. Unfortunately, Sri Lanka has followed the pattern of developing countries where resources have been spent on improvements aimed at helping the motorist rather than the pedestrian despite the high involvement of pedestrians in traffic accidents. However, concern for vulnerable road user has been growing recently among the highway engineers in Sri Lanka and attention is now being focused on pedestrians and pedal cyclists
Identification and modelling of construction supply chain risk triggers
No full textThe primary research problem was to identify and study the nature of triggers of construction supply chain risks within the context of the Sri Lankan construction industry. All of the important supply chain risk owners of the construction supply chains such as construction contractors, materials suppliers, consultants, client and construction industry as a whole as well as risk triggers created by them were considered in the research and this level of research has not been conducted before. The construction supply chain risk triggers are identified and categorized under construction industry specified risks, stakeholder generated risks and materials supply related risks. Stakeholder generated risks are further categorized as client generated risks, consultant generated risks and contractor generated risks. This is the first time in the literature, which used a holistic categorization for construction supply chain risks. Construction industry specified risk triggers are all types of risks from the construction industry/country/global context which are broken into the sand problem, regulations, seasonal trends and labour problem. Stakeholder generated risks triggers are contractor generated risks, consultants generated risks, and client generated risks. Contractor generated risks triggers are planning risks, decision making risks, financial risks, communication risks and sub-contractor risks. Client generated risk triggers are risks on communicating the scope of work and risks on fund supply. Consultant generated risks triggers are risks on submitting accurate designs and estimates. Materials supply related risk triggers are materials supply related quality risks, materials supply related availability risks, materials supply related on time delivery risks, materials supply related price risks. This is the first time in the literature, which used risk triggers to classify construction supply chain risks. Further, the research presents an interaction model the Risk Relationship Diagram (RRD) explaining the risk triggers and their impacts in the construction supply chains considering all the supply chain partners. The RRD can be used as a tool to assess the impact of triggers created by each stakeholder on others or how the triggers created by other stakeholders will affect each stakeholder. The model is useful in academic and practitioner perspective to investigate risk triggers at various points of the supply chain and to assess the risks and mitigation methods. Equations are derived to explain the relationship between each of the risk owners and respective risk triggers. Using the respective equations, each respective risk owner generated risk in value of money or time for a past project/contractor/consultant/client/materials supplier can be calculated. Using the answer, the perceived risk for each of the respective risk trigger for future similar project/contractor/consultant/client/materials supplier can be calculated. Using this model, the total risk impact for a given construction project can be derived. It is identified that the human generated risks, infrastructure/resource limitation risks and unavoidable risks are deep rooted primary risk triggers of any of the construction supply chains. However, the results presented are based on the Sri Lankan context and when the findings are applied for different socio economic context, the methodology explained can be used to a good extent but the models should be verified with the new context-This study reveals the risk profile of the Sri Lankan construction industry also. Further, twenty five risk topics were identified for the Sri Lankan construction supply chains. This research reveals twelve methods of risk identification as a holistic approach of construction supply chain risk identification. The methods can be used with suitable modifications to identify risks in any other supply chain also. The Double Triangulation Methodology introduced in this research can be applied in other research as a viable research methodology. In the Double Triangulation Methodology, it is suggested that it is compulsory to validate the results using minimum two other different data sets/two other approaches (ex: both qualitative and quantitative approaches)
Safety improvement at junctions
No full textRoad traffic injuries are a critical public health problem in Sri Lanka. As social and financial costs of traffic injuries are colossal. There is an urgent need to inquire about the number of accidents. A significant number of these accidents are happening at junctions.
This research has been focused on finding the cost effective method of reducing accidents at junctions. Within the Western province where the highest concentration of traffic was observed, a significant number of road accidents have been reported. For this research project ten junctions which includes four 4 legs junctions: Dehiwala, Yakkala, Talawatugoda, Golumadama, and six 3 legs junctions were selected within the six police divisions; Dehiwala, Moratuwa, Mt. Lavinia, Koswatta, Gampaha.
By companng the nature of accidents - Rear-end, Head-on, Angle, Side-swipe, Pedestrian with the relevant contributory factors such as Traffic volume, Pedestrian volume, Parking volume and Geometry, five relationship have been derived.
Problem identification and relevant solutions for these junctions are based on these relationships. It has been found that most of the problems are associated with the road geometry, unauthorized parking, road crossing pedestrian and poor visibility
Feasibility of a one-way traffic system for Colombo city
No full textTraffic management in main cities has become an absolute need due to the increase in the number of vehicles in the limited road space, at present. There are numerous limitations that restrict the widening of roads to cater to the demand of the ever-increasing vehicular load in an already congested city such as Colombo. The question is how are we going to differentiate between the benefit and the cost of development. It is very important to look for cost effective methods by minimizing the adverse effects on the economy in a developing country like Sri Lanka.
The objective of this research was to check the suitability of a One-way traffic system in a selected area of the Colombo City. The most congested areas, which could be expanded later, depending on the results obtained, have been selected first. The study area was confined to Northern and Southern banks of Beira Lake in Colombo Fort area. Computer software developed by Transportation Engineering Division, Department of Civil Engineering of University of Moratuwa called 'Transplan' was used for the analysis of data. This is still in the developing stage, but has been observed to have been used' accurately by comparing actual data at the site.
However, 'Transplan' has greatly reduced the amount of time required for calculation. There are other researches that are being carried out to study the suitability of Bus Lanes and Light Rail Transit (LRT), both of which require additional road space in the existing road network. This requirement could be met with a One-way traffic system, which increases the capacity in those road links. Traffic management measures such as integrated signalling systems, tidal flow operation etc, also have to be implemented in parallel with. a one-way traffic system to have optimum benefits. Any of the above researches accrues benefits to the transport sector development resulting in large economic gains to the country, indeed. However, it is high time we explored the feasibility of implementing accurate traffic management systems that can relieve the congestion level in busy business cities. One-way traffic systems are operating in most developed countries quite effectively at present.
Very soon, we will have to select a One-way traffic system as a traffic management option in the Colombo City, as it is the most convenient alternative in the prevailing situation
Performance indicators for the highway network in Sri Lanka
No full textHighway construction projects go through several processes such as appraisal, design, planning and construction before they reach the operational stage where the project goals intended at the beginning of the project are delivered. A process of a highway project is defined as the collection of all the activities engaged in producing outputs and outcomes through the mechanism of process function by using its inputs. Also these components such as inputs, outputs, outcomes, and process function are considered as the process attributes for the process under consideration.
Road sector stakeholders such as government, administrators and road users should play crucial roles in the functional aspects of each of the afore-mentioned processes. In the execution of these processes some of stakeholders are required to provide different types of inputs such as finances, labor and machinery etc. to achieve the target outputs and outcomes of the particular process, while others become the recipients of the outcomes of each of the processes of the project. Therefore the stakeholder involvement and the characteristics of process attributes become critical parameters in determining the performance of a particular process and also the entire project.
This thesis develops a paradigm for the stakeholder involvement and characteristics of process attributes for the performance ,evaluation of each of the process contributing to the progression of project starting from the conception of the project idea until the project goals are delivered at operational stage. Outcome of this thesis is to lay the theoretical platform for the performance evaluation of each of the processes as well as the entire project. For this purpose performance indicators and evaluation functions for each process are developed with respect to the perspectives of each stakeholder. An example with numerical application is presented at the end. of the thesis to demonstrate the potential use in an actual road project.
Keywords: Process Attributes, Performance Evaluation, Performance Indicator
(study area: western province)
No full textAs people become more mobile, urban traffic patterns become more complex, creating a need for more continuous transportation planning processes. Currently, manual and online surveys are the primary source for such analysis. However, such data collection while being expensive, takes time and is often outdated by the time it is made available for analysis. Mobile Network Big Data (MNBD) which concerns large data sets has the potential to supplement such traditional data sampling programs. Call Detail Records (CDR) which is a subset of MNBD is readily available as most of the telecommunication service providers maintain such data. Thus, analyzing CDR leads to an efficient identification of human behavior and location.
This research uses the CDRs of nearly 10,000 mobile phone users in the Western Province (WP) of Sri Lanka for a period of three months for the analysis of their caller locations in order to determine their mobility patterns. In analyzing the CDRs, the frequency of making calls from a specific location is identified, classified them into potential home and non-home locations based on the regularity and time of day and week these calls were generated from each such location. Users are thereby categorized hierarchical levels based on the regularity of presence within the study area, identification of province of residence and by typical employment categories across the sample of users.
An estimate of home-based work trips made within the Western Province was identified using the CDR and validated by comparing with the origin-destination matrix for work trips calculated from an extensive survey of 35,000 households under the CoMTrans Study (JICA, 2014) obtaining a fit of 76%. The successful validation and the identification of sources of errors in CDR data provides direction for further research in using CDRs for travel estimation and the identification of the appropriate comprehensive data mining techniques
Use of electricity consumption for traffic modeling of a suburban area
No full textThe history of urban travel demand studies spreads over a period of more than fifty years. Most of them are recorded from developed countries, with just a handful from developing countries. The scarcity of reliable and up-to-date socio-economic data to the required formats, and fewer possibilities of acquiring electronic data bases are the most apparent reasons for this situation. Often, data bases from more than one type of non-related data sources are required to run a complete travel demand forecasting model. This has restrained the calibration and forecasting of travel demand models in developing countries.
In particular, little attention has been given to forecasting travel in small and medium
communities except for a few instances from developed countries. The primary reason for this is that, forecasting travel for small communities is not considered important, when statewide or national level travel forecasting models have not been developed, and specially due to the limited financial and technical capacities in the respective agencies. National level travel surveys are however not adequately sensitive to small and medium urban centres as they do not represent local travel behaviour adequately. But the need for travel demand forecasting in small communities is great with respect to infrastructure development planning. Many researches have shown that there is a strong relationship between trip generation and the combined income of a household. But it is very difficult to collect the income data in developing countries, and no proper and reliable data sources are available. In this context, more readily available electricity consumption data, for both households and for non-households can be used as a cost effective approach for ascertaining travel demand, given that such data can be easily measured either in terms of disaggregate household or aggregate area level, at a much lesser cost.
There are a number of advantages to use electricity consumption as an explanatory variable for travel forecasting. The electronically available disaggregated data sets can be easily used in many forms at the data preparation stage. This helps to use the
data in aggregate or disaggregate forecasting according to the user requirements. The monthly updated data can be aggregated into any form of small zones by sorting them with addresses. The spatial location of the user can be geo-referenced and located with these addresses. Therefore, the use of GIS for travel modeling is possible. Since the electricity is accessible to many users in urban areas, variations of the land use changes can be assessed in time with updated data.
Generalized functional forms for trip generation, mode selection, and trip distribution in suburban areas using electricity consumption as the main explanatory variable are suggested herein. The trip generation forecasting is explained by electricity consumption at household level with the hypothesis that household electricity consumption behaving as a surrogate variable for the combined income of that household. This model fit has been strengthened by introducing some of the socio-economic variables as well. Mode split models have also been calibrated using household electricity consumption, and functional forms for each mode and are presented separately. Both the trip generation and the mode selection by non-electricity users have been incorporated with category analysis techniques. The concept of traffic attraction to a destination zone based on its economic strength has been used here relating to the non-household electricity consumption level as a surrogate variable for the economic strength of that zone. The assignment of traffic in local road network is suggested with available commercial software popular for small areas to have a complete series of traffic forecasting models.
The up-to-date electricity consumption data in electronic format could be obtained from the Lanka Electricity Company Ltd (LECO) or Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) free of charge or at a nominal fee. Therefore, this approach will give a very economical use of a model that has been calibrated in a state-of-the art method to suit the local traffic environment. The simple and cost effective approach will be especially helpful for the local authorities for infrastructure development and planning
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