1,720,988 research outputs found
Present-day constraint for tropical Pacific precipitation changes due to global warming in CMIP5 models
No full textThe sensitivity of the precipitation responses to greenhouse warming can depend on the present-day climate. In this study, a robust linkage between the present-day precipitation climatology and precipitation change owing to global warming is examined in inter-model space. A model with drier climatology in the present-day simulation tends to simulate an increase in climatological precipitation owing to global warming. Moreover, the horizontal gradient of the present-day precipitation climatology plays an important role in determining the precipitation changes. On the basis of these robust relationships, future precipitation changes are calibrated by removing the impact of the present-day precipitation bias in the climate models. To validate this result, the perfect model approach is adapted, which treats a particular model’s precipitation change as an observed change. The results suggest that the precipitation change pattern can be generally improved by applying the present statistical approach.1122Nsciescopuskc
Role of north tropical atlantic SST on the ENSO simulated using CMIP3 and CMIP5 models
No full textIn this study, role of North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) SST on the ENSO variability is examined with CMIP3 and CMIP5 simulations. It is found that most climate models involved in CMIP3 and CMIP5 successfully simulate the inverse relationship between NTA SST during the boreal spring and the ENSO during the subsequent boreal winter. The multi-model ensemble (MME) results show the observed westward propagating signals related to NTA SST from the Atlantic to the Pacific along the off-equatorial Pacific ITCZ. However, different from the observational argument, the main mechanism for the NTA to induce the ENSO is likely to be different in the MME. While the observational result exhibits the NTA-induced off-equatorial Rossby waves play a more dominant role in leading the Pacific signal, the equatorial wind over the western Pacific related to the NTA-induced Kelvin wave is likely to be more crucial to lead the Pacific variability. In addition, the amplitude of NTA SST-induced ENSO in the MME tends to be systematically weaker, and the preference for the central Pacific SST anomaly is also weak. These weak signals are distinctly improved in a model that simulates two types of El Nino events independently. That the strength of the NTA effect to the Pacific can be affected by the seasonal distribution of climatological precipitation is also discussed. Additionally, the strength of the NTA effect tends to be stronger when the model simulates phase locking of ENSO reasonably.1183sciescopu
ENSO amplitude changes due to greenhouse warming in CMIP5: Role of mean tropical precipitation in the twentieth century
No full textThis study examines the relationship between the intermodel diversities of the present climate climatology and those of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude change under global warming in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. The models with increased ENSO amplitude under greenhouse warming (i.e., ENSO-amplified models) tend to simulate a twentieth century stronger climatological Intertropical Convergence Zone and South Pacific Convergence Zone over the central-eastern Pacific that are located farther away from the equator during boreal spring. Moisture budget analysis indicates that those climatological differences lead to stronger positive climatological precipitation change over the off-equatorial central-eastern Pacific under greenhouse warming. The stronger positive climatological precipitation change enhances the air-sea coupling strength over the central-eastern Pacific, which leads to increase the ENSO amplitude.1196sciescopu
Eddy-Induced Growth Rate of Low-Frequency Variability and Its Mid- to Late Winter Suppression in the Northern Hemisphere
No full textSynoptic eddy and low-frequency flow (SELF) feedback plays an important role in reinforcing low-frequency variability (LFV). Recent studies showed that an eddy-induced growth (EIG) or instability makes a fundamental contribution to the maintenance of LFV. To quantify the efficiency of the SELF feedback, this study examines the spatiotemporal features of the empirical diagnostics of EIG and its associations with LFV. The results show that, in terms of eddy vorticity forcing, the EIG rate of LFV is generally larger (smaller) in the upper (lower) troposphere, whereas, in terms of eddy potential vorticity forcing, it is larger in the lower troposphere to partly balance the damping effect of surface friction. The local EIG rate shows a horizontal spatial distribution that corresponds to storm-track activity, which tends to be responsible for maintaining LFV amplitudes and patterns as well as sustaining eddy-driven jets. In fact, the EIG rate has a well-defined seasonality, being generally larger in cold seasons and smaller in the warmest season, and this seasonality is stronger in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. This study also reveals a mid-to late winter (January-March) suppression of the EIG rate in the Northern Hemisphere, which indicates a reduced eddy feedback efficiency and may be largely attributed to the eddy kinetic energy suppression and the midlatitude zonal wind maximum in the midwinter of the Northern Hemisphere.O (subject to Restrictions below, author can archive publisher's version/PDF)1144sciescopu
Inter-model diversity in jet stream changes and its relation to Arctic climate in CMIP5
No full textWe examined how coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) simulate changes in the jet stream differently under greenhouse warming, and how this intermodel diversity is related to the simulated Arctic climate changes by analyzing the simulation of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Although the jet stream in the multi-model ensemble mean shifts poleward, a considerable diversity exists among the 34 CGCMs. We found that inter-model differences in zonal wind responses, especially in terms of meridional shift of the midlatitude jet, are highly dependent on Arctic surface warming and lower stratospheric cooling. Specifically, the midlatitude jet tends to shift relatively equatorward (poleward) in the models with stronger (weaker) Arctic surface warming, whereas the jet tends to shift relatively poleward (equatorward) in the models with stronger (weaker) Arctic lower stratospheric cooling.1156sciescopu
Changes in Independency between Two Types of El Nino Events under a Greenhouse Warming Scenario in CMIP5 Models
No full textThis study uses archives from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to investigate changes in independency between two types of El Nino events caused by greenhouse warming. In the observations, the independency between cold tongue (CT) and warm pool (WP) El Nino events is distinctively increased in recent decades. The simulated changes in independency between the two types of El Nino events according to the CMIP5 models are quite diverse, although the observed features are simulated to some extent in several climate models. It is found that the climatological change after global warming is an essential factor in determining the changes in independency between the two types of El Nino events. For example, the independency between these events is increased after global warming when the climatological precipitation is increased mainly over the equatorial central Pacific. This climatological precipitation increase extends convective response to the east, particularly for CT El Nino events, which leads to greater differences in the spatial pattern between the two types of El Nino events to increase the El Nino independency. On the contrary, in models with decreased independency between the two types of El Nino events after global warming, climatological precipitation is increased mostly over the western Pacific. This confines the atmospheric response to the western Pacific in both El Nino events; therefore, the similarity between them is increased after global warming. In addition to the changes in the climatological state after global warming, a possible connection of the changes in the El Nino independency with the historical mean state is discussed in this paper.1111sciescopu
Temperature Variation over East Asia during the Lifecycle of Weak Stratospheric Polar Vortex
No full textThe authors investigate the circulation change during the life cycle of a weak stratospheric polar vortex (WSV) event and its impact on temperature variation over East Asia. The lower-tropospheric temperature over East Asia strongly fluctuates despite the slow decay of stratospheric circulation and the continuously negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) pattern during the WSV event. The temperature fluctuation is critically influenced by the variation of the East Asian upper-level coastal trough (EAT), which may be coupled to the stratospheric circulation during the WSV events. The EAT is deepened anomalously during the Peak phase (from lag -5 to lag 5 day) of the WSV, and East Asian temperature is lowest during this phase. During the next period (Decay-1 phase: from lag 6 to lag 16 day), in spite of the slowly decaying WSV condition, the cold temperature anomaly over East Asia is suddenly weakened; this change is caused by a westward-propagating signal of an anticyclonic anomaly from the North Pacific to East Asia. After about two weeks (Decay-2 phase: from lag 17 to lag 27 day), the cold conditions over East Asia are restrengthened by an intensification of EAT, which is related to the eastward propagation of a large-scale wave packet originating from a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-type structure in the Decay-1 phase and its delayed influence on the East Asia region.1192sciescopu
Migration of atmospheric convection coupled with ocean currents pushes El Nino to extremes
Full text linkThe warm phase of El Nino-Southern Oscillation can grow much stronger than the cold phase, but the associated dynamics are not well understood. Here we show that the anomalous zonal advection of warm water is the major process that pushes El Nino to extremes and that this anomalous advection results from the coupling of oceanic currents with eastward migration of the atmospheric convection; a greater zonal advection is associated with a greater extent of the eastward migration. By contrast, there is a limited extent for westward migration during La Nina. Climate models that successfully simulate the amplitude asymmetry display a systematic linkage of a greater longitudinal movement of the convection center with a stronger zonal advection and greater El Nino amplitude. In a warming world, the longitudinal migration of convection response increases, as does the role of zonal advection, increasing the frequency of future extremes of El Nino.△1132Ysciescopu
An exploratory modeling study on bio-physical processes associated with ENSO
No full textVariability of marine phytoplankton associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and potential biological feedbacks onto ENSO are investigated by performing coupled ocean/biogeochemical model experiments forced by realistic surface winds from 1951 to 2010. The ocean model used in this study is the MOM4, which is coupled to a biogeochemical model, called TOPAZ (Tracers in the Ocean with Allometric Zooplankton). In general, it is shown that MOM4-TOPAZ mimics the observed main features of phytoplankton variability associated with ENSO. By comparing the actively coupled MOM4-TOPAZ experiment with the ocean model experiments using prescribed chlorophyll concentrations, potential impacts of phytoplankton on ENSO are evaluated. We found that chlorophyll generally increases mean sea surface temperature (SST) and decreases subsurface temperature by altering the penetration of solar radiation. However, as the chlorophyll concentration increases, the equatorial Pacific SST decreases due to the enhanced upwelling of the cooler subsurface water with shoaling of mixed layer and thermocline. The presence of chlorophyll generally intensifies ENSO amplitude by changing the ocean basic state. On the other hand, interactively varying chlorophyll associated with the ENSO tends to reduce ENSO amplitude. Therefore, the two biological effects on SST are competing against each other regarding the SST variance in the equatorial Pacific. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.X11107sciescopu
Winter precipitation variability over Korean Peninsula associated with ENSO
No full textIn this study, winter precipitation variability associated with the El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the Korean Peninsula was investigated using a 5-pentad running mean data because significant correlation pattern cannot be revealed using seasonal-mean data. It was found a considerably significant positive correlation between Nio3 sea-surface temperature and precipitation during early winter (from Mid-November to early-December), when the correlation coefficient is close to 0.8 in early-December; the correlation is distinctively weakened during late winter. It is demonstrated that such sudden intraseasonal change in relation to ENSO is associated with the presence of anticyclonic flow over the Kuroshio extension region (Kuroshio anticyclone). In early winter, there is strong southerly wind over the Korean Peninsula, which is induced by the Philippine Sea anticyclone and Kuroshio anticyclone. However, in January, although the Philippine Sea anticyclone develops further, the Kuroshio anticyclone suddenly disappears; as a result, the impact of ENSO is considerably weakened over the Korean Peninsula. These results indicate that the Kuroshio anticyclone during El Nio peak phase plays a critical role by strongly affecting Northeast Asia climate, including the Korean Peninsula. In addition, it is also found that there are distinctive interdecadal changes of the relationship between ENSO and precipitation over the Korean Peninsula. In particular, the strong correlation in early winter is clearer in the recent 30 years than that in the previous period of 1950-1979.111812sciescopu
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