1,721,066 research outputs found
Using System Dynamics to understand Workplace Conflict
No full textThis study uses a systemic approach to explore the dynamics of learning and negative emotion in workplace intraorganisational conflict. Our dynamic hypothesis was that the endogenous dynamics between the level of intraorganisational conflict and the levels of learning and negative emotion, which are accumulating in the organisation as by-products of conflict, are causing the conflict level to oscillate. A review by Cronin & Berzukova (2006) identified two problematic, undesired patterns of intraorganisational conflict development over time (Group Disintegration, Groupthink) and one desired pattern of moderate conflict level (Cohesion and Resilience), which comprised our Reference Mode. A Causal Loop Diagram and a quantified, Stock and Flow model were built using Stella Architect software, to test our hypothesis. Direct and Indirect structure tests as well as behaviour tests and sensitivity analysis were performed in order to validate, calibrate and increase confidence in the model. After calibration, the base run of our model reproduced the reference mode of the 2 undesired behaviour patterns. Our results are in line with the view of Cronin & Berzukova (2006) that as conflict builds up, it causes negative emotion as well as learning to increase through two basic mechanisms: the Conflict-Learning Loop and the Conflict-Negative Feelings Loop
Rule compliance in public forests; A pilot experiment
No full textIllegal logging is a serious issue that not only has dire environmental and social consequences,
but also bring forwards the issue of poor governance of common pool resources. The purpose
of this thesis is to contribute to understanding the causes of illegal logging. I integrated existing
findings into one theoretical framework for rule compliance onto which I base my knowledge
contribution. Further, by building a system dynamics model on aggregate forest and
policymaking dynamics, I ran simulations calibrated on historical data. Model simulations
showed general fit-to-behavior with discrepancies for the logging function, pointing to the need
to study how logging decisions are made. Because of this I designed a multiplayer online
simulation game whose rules include an incentive, monitoring and sanctioning mechanism tied
together in a scoring function. The participants in the pilot experiment played the game and
then reflected about their experience in an interview. Through cross-referencing participant
performance and their expressed rationale, I was able to derive initial insights on reasoning
behind compliance with the allowable annual cut. Results showed that participants differed in
motivation (competitive or noncompetitive) and strategy (compliant and noncompliant).
Overall, participants with a compliant strategy expressed more reasons justifying their behavior
compared to noncompliant participants. Illegal gain was most often used as a justification for
noncompliant behavior, pointing to the incentive structure as a leverage point. Receiving news
that another player has been sanctioned reinforced the participants original strategy, which
highlights the role of social norms. These initial insights broaden scholarly understanding of
compliance and set the stage for running a full-scale experiment. This thesis also has a
methodological contribution as it outlines the process of developing a simulation game based
off a system dynamics model for the specific purpose of research. Moreover, it proves the
usefulness of pilot experiments for studying decision-making reasonin
Strategic pathways to eradicate two infectious diseases An experimental study on dynamic decision making in resource allocation task
No full textEvaluating the potential for natural capital investment to reverse soil degradation: A dynamic simulation approach exploring connections between soil health and money in England
No full textInvestment in natural capital has been proposed for restoring degraded natural capital stocks such as soils. However, the dynamic interactions between soil health and systems of financial incentives are not clear, meaning that natural capital investments could produce unintended effects. In this thesis, secondary data were used to build a quantitative system dynamics model capable of reproducing historically declining trends in the soil health and natural capital indicator soil organic carbon (SOC) in England. The model was used to clarify the structural mechanisms behind soil degradation and identify leverage points at which natural capital investments could be targeted. Analyses revealed the absence of a feedback mechanism by which land managers could account for the improvements or losses of soil ecosystem services in their business decisions. The model was used to design and test two types of investments that would introduce missing feedback mechanisms. The study found that their effectiveness differed depending on the initial SOC stock level of the land plot to which the investment was targeted. These findings can be generalised to inform the discussion on how natural capital investment could be used to improve other soil health indicators, as well as other types of natural assets
Combining Scenario Workshops and Participatory System Dynamics Modelling to Study Food Security. A case study with farmers in Zambia
Full text linkFood security, which affects mainly developing countries, is a worldwide problem that has called the attention of the economic, political and scientific community. Achieving food security is a very complex process that involves not only the ability of farming but also a constant adaptation to natural phenomena, as for example, rainfall patterns. Limited knowledge and access to information and technologies, restrict the capacity of local farming communities to achieve food security. Furthermore, there is a lack of suitable methods and tools for involving stakeholders, such as farmers, in the development and assessment of food policies and their long-term system-wide effects.
The main goal of this research is to investigate how the use of mixed-methods – scenarios and participatory System Dynamics (SD) modelling – are capable of improving understanding and an integrative view of food systems, serving as a lever for supporting food security decision-making processes. Additionally, this research aims to answer the following two questions: i) How can scenarios and participatory SD be used together to study plausible futures of food security involving smallholder farmers in developing countries?; ii) What are the possible policy pathways to avoid undesirable situations and to stimulate desirable ones, in a context of subsidence farming in Sub-Saharan African countries?. For this specific purpose, a group of smallholder farmers in Zambia was analyzed as a case study.
First, a workshop was implemented in which a scenario of poor rainfall and no government help was developed. In order to achieve food security, participants had to find policy proposals and pathways to avoid or to overcome this undesired scenario. Subsequently, from the scenario workshop data, causal loop diagrams (CLD) were built using a systematic coding process. The next steps were to analyse policy proposals through a cross-impact analysis and develop an outline of pathways to study the complementarity and compatibility of such proposals. The 11 policy proposals were Charcoal Business; Livestock Business; Groundnuts Business; Gardening; Loan; Piecework; Land (productive land); Rental Business; Partnership; Legislation for Deforestation/Afforestation; and, Retention Basins/Drilling Boreholes. Finally, it was possible to design an innovative Action Plan that shows the pathways and the pace at which each proposal may achieve food security. It was concluded that scenario workshop and participatory SD may tightly coupled since these methods complement each other, stimulating system thinking and co-creation of knowledge. Scenario workshops are a disruptive and exploratory method, as it allows to elicit creative and plausible images from participants. Participatory SD supports decision-making processes by analysing policy proposals and its pathways, leading to the elaboration of joint action plans. In the Zambian case, from the 11 plausible policy proposals, it was found that Piecework enables a swifter path to achieve food security, while Rental Business would be the slowest. Additionally, it was found that some of the policy proposals could be reinforced if implemented together, while others, such as Charcoal Business and Legislation for Deforestation/Afforestation, did not show such potential. A follow-up survey with workshop participants showed that they were following the Action Plan, confirming the preference for the short-term policy proposal pathways
Modeling household level food security with system dynamics: from crop decisions to food availability. A case study with subsistence farming in Zambia
Full text linkUndernourishment is still a present problem in the world. Progress have been made in the fight against malnutrition over the last years, yet an unacceptable number of people still lack the food they need for an active and healthy life. Sub-Saharan Africa is still the region with the highest prevalence of undernourishment people. Within Sub-Saharan Africa, Zambia is one of the countries facing one of highest prevalence of undernourishment levels. Many studies have been carried out to explain food
security and its determinants. However, food security is not simply a function of production or supply, it involves several dimensions, as the agricultural system is complex.
This research develops a system dynamics model based approach to understand and assess the subsistence farming system, taking Zambia as a case study, a country facing a high prevalence of food insecurity. The study contains an assessment of factors affecting farmers crop decisions and other important relationship within the subsistence farm management context. The system dynamics modeling approach provides valuable insights into the elements through which different conditions
influences household food security.
Food security, in subsistence farming, strongly relies on the decision of which crops to plant in a growing season. Assessing these decisions intends to improve our understanding of this process and thus support farmers in defining strategies to allocate resources more efficiently. Therefore, regarding the identification of factors influencing crop decisions, variables of three different types of resources
were studied (human, natural and financial). Variables such as labor availability, the age of the household’s head and gender, farm land size, wealth level, soil fertility, and district, were found to influence farmers’ crop decisions. Furthermore, farm land size and fertilizer were found to be key variables in the subsistence farming system, and are linked to several farm decisions.
The system dynamics model is a complex structure containing different sectors characterizing each of the main dynamics of the subsistence farming system. Sectors represent crop decisions, yield and production, soil, sales decisions, income and expenditure, and food availability dynamics, representing the dynamics from the beginning (crop decisions) to the end (food availability). These dynamics are
characterized by a set of indicators of the main variables of interest, considered as the key determinants of household food security.
The evaluation of scenarios that express different household conditions, demonstrates that the size of the household and the gender of the households’ head are two factors that strongly influence household level food security. The strategies of providing more access to fertilizer for female headed households, and the implementation of conservation agriculture were tested as demonstrative intervention, and indicate that are possible strategies to increase food security.
This study has taken an approach that offers an ample vision of a system, providing significant more information than mere mathematical models that display only a specific subject of a complex system.
Is uses the System Dynamics methodology to assess food security supporting the understanding of events and causations, and allows the evaluation of policies and their long-term influence. It also identified the critical variables that affect the phenomenon of food insecurity and how they behavior over time. This thesis contributes to add a new perspective on the decision-making and policy design. The results display the potential of this unique approach, and structuring knowledge into a broader anddynamics context contested conventional suppositions
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Guest editorial: natural resource management: contributions of system dynamics to research, policy and implementation
No full textDynamic implications of the biological link between bovine milk and meat production for operationalizing the planetary health diet
No full textThe EAT–Lancet planetary health diet (PHD) provides guidelines on a global scale and calls for red meat consumption to be halved. Operational PHD guidelines at country level have yet to be determined. Here we argue that the biological link between milk and bovine-meat production must be considered when operationalizing the globally calculated PHD to national contexts. Using a stylized computer simulation model rooted in a food system approach, we explore the impact of dietary scenarios on milk and bovine-meat production and show that ignoring this biological link can lead to substantial imbalances between national dietary guidelines and production outcomes and potentially lead to food waste. Furthermore, we assess current national dietary guidelines in Europe and find that most disregard this biological link and are incompatible with the PHD, with implications for policymakers and consumers to consider when adapting the PHD in national contexts
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